MATTWOLVES 3

Excellent stuff guys and thanks for waking me up from my slumber GFS.. Absolute crackers on these ens tonight, and I feel they are growing in numbers. I think this place is missing a Boom... Its been ages since we had one.. Certain charts deserve it, and some of these ensembles most definitely do...

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I tell you what folks, the 12Z ens are anything but boring... There is plenty of excitement amongst a fair few of them... Certainly not a full on zonal express.. We just need to bring this into the more reliable now... I'm not your biggest fan GFS... but I do love it when ya tease me baby...

I didn't laugh at you mate for making that conclusion.. We are all entitled to our opinions on here, and all of us should be respected for them, even if it means going against what we would like to see. Back to the drawing board and prepare for the next chase I will be doing after Xmas... I can't be doing it this side of Xmas, I have the in laws coming... And the only reason I didn't want to see a major snow event come the big day, was the fear of having them stranded here for longer...

Hi mate, hope your keeping OK.. I hate coming on here to bring updates of the EC when it points to nothing happening, it drives me crazy.. But that's the way it's looking just lately, and has been for some time.. For me we need to see 3 major players on board.. The 46,a positive Glosea, and some subtle hints from Exeter of incoming significant cold... And at present we have non of the above!! That's a concern. But like I keep saying, it's early days... But as you're aware mate things can and do run away very quickly in these current UK winters. Turn the clock back 30 or 40 years, people wouldn't be surprised of incoming cold and snow... They would simply say... Its Winter and to be expected... Now we all treat a cold snap like its the Holy Grail!! And how we need such amazing pieces to fit into such an intricate puzzle for it to come off... Good lord bring back the 80s..but like you say the prognosis for the next couple of weeks is a little suspect.. We need January to deliver something, because once you get to February, especially later on, those special ingredients start to go against us for obvious reasons.. Enjoy your Xmas.

The longer range EC as pretty much nailed this pattern tbh... We certainly don't want to be playing a waiting game for several weeks here, because if that NH profile gets it's act together we will be in trouble... But let's not go there just yet... Still far to early in the season.

Just to ease any friction that maybe evident on here... Here is my forecast for the next few weeks.... Based on the 0Z ensembles of fi There are a fair few that point to colder solutions moving forward, certainly not a reduction of them! So come on now Mr EC46. Let's have you playing ball on Thursday, and start bringing us something that resembles winter... Otherwise I will be scrapping my monthly fee you take from me.. Its nearly Xmas folks, I'm as happy as a pig in a blanket..

Yes and that's another top post from Tamara... She is very professional in her manner, and I can understand how some may get confused by her very big words.. Bit like seeing a specialist with an health problem, only for you to come out of the room still wandering whats wrong with you.. But that's her style and she does a remarkable job with it. Seriously guys and gals she's fab to talk to in private and very helpful. And I feel that she thinks the current EC46 data could possibly be onto something... Its all subject to change at the drop off an hat though, nothing is set in stone... And I must admit I feel privelaged that Tams posts on here with all that knowledge.. Not just to single her out though... Catacol, chio, Steve M and yourself Scott do a grand job with your analysis.. Many others too, so sorry if I've missed you out. Makes this forum the great read it his.. Wow.... That was emotional... I now need a ly down...

I'm that peed off with my earlier post stating Im not seeing significant cold this side of Xmas, I've had to glue myself to the ensembles to find something... Some are peaches... The last one is a real brute... Now if that came off I reckon I'd have me dog working overtime on snow clearing duties... Rrrrrrr.... How he loves it..

In all honesty mate I love a cold snap and snowy spell as much as anyone.. But I'm under know illusions right now, there are gonna be a good many sour faces come the latter part of the month when this significant cold is still absent... And probably a fair few posters who will go missing. I'm not ruling out cold, but I'm not seeing anything this side of Xmas.. Later on who knows, but we've been down this avenue numerous times... And before you know 3 quarters of the Winter have passed.. I hope I'm proven wrong here, and I wouldn't mind one bit being wrong, but at this stage I feel the chances are small, at least in the next few weeks. Oh and folks I'm not being a party pooper here, I love it when you guys ramp up the cold, I do it myself enough.. But I do end up giving myself exhaustion when it all goes wrong Even though I'm not seeing significant cold just yet, I'm still hopeful we will we get some kind of reward before the seasons out..

It was never on board for anything cold last Winter, and it was pretty much spot on last Summer. I would certainly be giving it much more credentials than GFS.. Good for sqaut, and CFS chocolate Fire guard System for sure. But it tends to get panned because of its epic fail a couple of years back! When in all honesty the only accurate model that year was the one the Spanish met seemed to be using.

Not so sure about the wetter spell chance from Exeter now... The EC46 now showing a build of High pressure from the South, and some really strong Heights building into Spain and Portugal.... @Tamara Save us some space in ya suitcase, I'll come with you...

Temps have been below average for a while and quite cold at times.. Average temps do not float my boat one bit. I admire what the strat guys are saying but the 46 at this moment of time is not seeing it. The Long range anomalies are also not seeing it... That's not to say its gonna nail this pattern, but I'm beginning to think a major strat event is gonna be needed to throw the cat amongst the pigeons.. So to speak.

I'm not seeing anything from tonight's EC46 that suggests major cold will begin appearing in the next few days. If anything going towards the latter part of the month suggests the EXETER update may be onto something with a chance of milder wetter conditions by this time.. Low pressure anchored over Iceland and increasing Heights over iberia... Know significant Heights over Greenland or Scandy... The ural block still in place, and perhaps a tad more displaced South.. Temps around avareage.

I'm gerrin more and more confused the more posts I read.. Will it or won't it!! Is he or isn't he! Who cares what the ECM and UKMO show.... Its what the GFS control shows that really matters. It could be onto something... Or couldn't it!! Stay tuned for the next big episode here on Netweather... Cue the drum role from Eastenders..

We are perhaps getting ahead of ourselves regarding what could happen long term. There is most definitely a rule of thought regarding low sea ice in certain places couple with the ural block putting sustained pressure on that Vortex though.. Its for sure meandering and looks far more susceptible than last year. And do bare in mind an SSW increases our chances of significant cold by 60%...im pretty sure most would take those odds. Their are still plenty of ENS from the GFS pointing the way to some colder options moving forward.. But the key word here is.. UNCERTAINTY RULES!! It's gonna be a fine hunt and chase this year for sure..

Yes I remember a couple of years ago when they spoke of significant cold and Eastlys and snow for the whole season, and we ended up with zilch...

Good level headed post Jason.. And we should most definitely respect other members posts and thoughts, even if they don't coincide with our own personal views! I for one have been guilty in the past of not liking other posters thoughts when they don't match my own. And that I regret, fortunately I know longer go down that path, and either keep out of the heated debates or give them credit for there opinions! There is certainly know point in accusing other members of trolling just because we do not like their analysis! Right then... Yesterday's EC long range anomalies... I covered them briefly after a quick glance... After a bigger inspection, they point to a rather cold December overall... For January they point to around avarage or a tad below values.. These are a ruff guideline for the month in the whole, we could still witness milder spells followed by colder ones through the month! February is again being showed as a warmer than average month and has been for some time! This is not the whole story as much of Central and Northern Europe is being highlighted as above normal too. Also worth noting is Central and Eastern areas of the USA are also being shown to be warmer than average... This is all along way off and shouldn't necessarily get you thinking the Winter is a write off!! But on balance the EC as been going with this theme since September... And it certainly can't be discarded! In this warming world we can never rule out numerous Winters going above avarage. But I remain some hope of at least a little Interest during the season, but I also wouldn't be overly surprised if this Winter failed to deliver also... But here's hoping I'm proven wrong.. Enjoy your evenings.... Its nearly Christmas ssssssss..

I'm not so sure that rings true!! Having Greenland Heights is most definitely a good thing, but is certainly not the be all and end all.. To much blocking to the NW can also bring an halt to Atlantic weather systems... Yes it will be fidgid but not necessary snowy! Put in place a big Scandinavian High with an Estly feed, then we have the perfect scenario for Atlantic systems to push in against this air bringing the potential for significant snow! And when those Scandy Heights are big and robust they can take some shifting! All to play for still...

Well folks with all the big hitters now posting on here it's becoming like a Netweather version of Wikipedia! All we need now is Michael Fish to join the party and its game set and match... Just had a gander at those 12z ensembles to see if there are any hints of those sypnotics bringing colder Conditions further into fi... And yes there are a few that pointing towards that... In the shorter term I feel a build of pressure towards mid month is a good call, with an increasing risk of more extensive frost given the right circumstances... If we could get that pattern to hold firm through till Xmas... Then boom, that's a result, if not a snow ladden Xmas, then a white over frost would be the next best thing. Ohhh just to add good folks... The EC 6 month anomalies have been updated today... And December is most definitely showing as a fair bit colder month.. January is potentially looking on the cold side too... Its certainly looks colder than last months update... February is being flagged up as a warmer month... But that's a long way out... But I will add on last months update January was being forecast to be a warmer month too... So perhaps we are slowly but surely seeing a trend of perhaps colder Conditions in the long term... I certainly hope so.

I tell you what, even though we've had some excellent analysis from Catacol today I feel a little trepidation in one or 2 posters regarding the coming Winter... Come on guys sooner or later the Atlantic may break through.. That's sods law!! But that's not to say it will gain a strangle hold for the next 3 or so months! There is a lot going on and things could very easily line up very nicely in the coming weeks... I'm gonna put a smile on you coldie faces, and let's hope we see many more of these in the coming weeks... All this talk of Aliens and that!!!!! Trust me in the words of the X Files...... The truth is out there...

Great drama in here folks... Far better than Elderado.. I'm not convinced by last night's EC46.. Don't ask me why, but perhaps there seems to be a major air of uncertainty in the atmosphere this Winter. The Russian High remains pretty dominant for some time yet... That could be bad... It could be good! What I will say is there are better chances of some settled conditions around mid month with a return to fog and frost a possibility. Towards the latter part of the month and beyond the situation becomes more uninspiring, with a distinct lack of Heights towards our NW and NE... But there are circulating rumours of a lot of stress being placed on the TPV.. So if this situation would occur the whole NWP could be thrown out of zinc... And I have a feeling we could be looking at one this season... So most definitely there will be a lot to play for in the coming weeks... Try not to get to dissatisfied with dodgy op runs and the like folks, one dsy they look great.. The next they look Meh... Its the bigger picture we need to look at... And I would say most definitely all options are on the table this year, certainly better prospects than the last couple of years. I will update you on the EC Long range anomalies when they update in the next couple of days.

Just had a gander through the GFS 12Z ensembles and there are a fair few that bring interesting sypnotics through the first part of the month.. Now if we can keep dthis kind of pattern through til the later part of the month, then bingo things will start to become very appealing... The one ensemble is an absolute stonker and as long as these keep showing, then muggins will keep posting em!

For me there are once again plenty of cold ensembles from GFS, and a fair few showing more Intense colder pools to our NE as we go out further into the month... Secondly a bit concerned about everyone ordering from Amazon! No wonder the High Streets are in such a mess.. I've chosen to order mine from the Government website... I've been told the goods should arrive this month, but may be subject to travel restrictions which could hold it up a little longer! Ohh and when it does arrive I've been told to only view from a distance and not to mingle in the GARDEN!!! Ohh and be quick with your orders, the website crashed this morning... The cold snap is still alive so I'm happy..

The excitement is building I feel, many more of those GFS ensembles highlight those colder temps later this week... And if you take a gander at the longer range ones you will find many more serving up more and more interesting sypnotics! This potentially is the most interesting early winter start for a few years... Probably since the Dec 2017 snow event that occurred around the Midlands... I'm actually feeling more optimistic than I have done for several years... Keep up the 247 reporting folks, it's an absolute blast, better than any Netflix boxset Hey its silly season today, and shops are open tomorrow, let's have an early cold blast to get the party started... While I'm at it, I've been waiting ages to say this... Well at least a year... In the words of Slade.... Its chhhhhrrriiiiisssstttttmmmmaaaasssss.. Enjoy your evenings..