MATTWOLVES 3

I would agree picking 1 or 2 warm members out of many many more ensembles is not all that helpfull. But the other day you posted to say August and September look pretty poor and November even worse!! Now is that really helpfull! Next week is looking OK, beyond that it perhaps trends more unsettled.. But best perhaps we concentrate on the next few days rather than few months.

I understand people's frustrations... I really do, but you can moan till the cows come home, and it still won't change the outcome.. For me there are worse things in life to worry about... For me... If we avoid a 2nd wave of Covid this Winter, then i will happy.. The weather can do what it wants to.. While I'm on the subject... Just noticed the met office app is showing unbroken sunshine symbol for early next week here in the Midlands... Stone the crows that would be most welcome.. I still think next week is looking pretty good on the whole, and certainly better than this week.. The 6z mean looks OK for much of next week.

Yes Ive got the message now.. The conditions are poor.. But just a thought guys, wouldn't some of these persistent posts be better suited to the moans thread..

That's a bit unfair mate. I always say if there are only a couple of ensembles showing a favourable outcome, then it's pretty pointless posting them. But if there are a quarter or half the ens showing some potential... Then its worth highlighting them as sometimes they could be sniffing out a pattern change.. And tbh its no different than you viewing a poor GFS operational and posting to say we are looking at 2 more weeks of Autumnal conditions.

I hope they are barking up the wrong tree also mate.. Just had a thorough view of the EC weeklies for August, and its not great.. The same old story of brief ridging into the South with perhaps more trough influence into the NW... And this spreading further south at times.. Temps remain average to rather warm in the far SE at times.. Precipitation amounts are much higher in W/NW areas also... But many places look to be getting some rain at times.. Iceland and Scandy also showing to be quite wet at times.. And a fair amount of Northern and Central Europe continue to look average at best.. The only places looking good are the usual suspects..Spain, Southern France.. Portugal... ITALY.. Greece etc... I hope this turns out to be wrong, because these charts certainly do not buck the trend of our recent run of poor Augusts.

Tbh the EC46 updates I've been posting have pretty much nailed this pattern all Summer.. Azores ridge ebbing and flowing with low Heights to the NW and a flow mainly Wstly.. Those NOAA charts have also been pretty successful I must admit, and that's coming from someone who doubted them not so long back. I would say so far this summer a blend of EC46 and NOAA charts would have brought a pretty reliable forecast, especially for trends, and perhaps just relying on the ops for the finer details of the weather at ground level. Because on there own they have certainly been very dodgy and that goes for the means also. I also think Tamara as been pretty close with her summarys also, never once highlighted a persistently settled or very warm outcome. While I'm at it the GEM looks OK overall.. But even here you can still see that familiar pattern of ridging for a few days before a retreat takes places every so often..

Next week looks good across most of England and Wales on the EC46, plenty of fine conditions on offer. Towards next weekend conditions trend a tad more unsettled with Low pressure to the North having more influence... Worth noting again, the flow is mainly Wstly so never overly warm, but respectable in a any sunnier moments as you would expect at this time of the year. Beyond that we keep with this general ebb and flow of the Azores High through August, with the best of the conditions always further South, with more of a risk of unsettled conditions at times towards the NW. This signal persists on the EC46 for some time now... The flow never hot or building a strong ridge in a favourable position to promote very warm or Hot conditions in. At this stage August appears to be on a similar level to July with periods of settled warmer conditions mixed with alternating cooler less settled conditions... Again always best the further South one is. Typical Summertime affair really. But as it stands the EC46 remains stubborn in its overall trends moving forward... But much better next week looks a good call at present.

Annoying.. The forecast is no where near as bad as some are painting.. I post the mean charts and they show what they show.. I do not make over the top comments on each and every operational run.. And I always try to install a little light hearted humour into events. I won't bother in future..

Can you offer a little more insight rather than keep whining about how the Atlantic dominates through July and August.. And again why is it a key ECM.. it matters not a jot, because all the output come this time tomorrow could be completely different again. EC46 tonight... Will it be key! I think not... It will merely serve to show us what the current trends may be looking like from this evening, and it may Completely change come Thursdays run.

UKMO looks like next week could be looking pretty good.

Thanks Tams for your current thoughts, and your new found Portuguese Language.. Just kidding.. This week does look a tad average with a good deal of cloud and at times some rain a round. I'm sensing an improvement come the Weekend, especially further South and should be a little warmer too.. Still no great shakes further North though! Early next week with High Pressure building to the West we should again have some decent conditions and perhaps warmer, the Met office app seems to favour a better outcome for the Weekend here also. Overall the next 10 day's look decent for many places away from the far North.

It's a pleasing ECM mean it has to be said.. What better way to wind down on a beautiful summers day by viewing some summer type sypnotics... Oh and watching the Purge Anorchy.. The op was a bit of an outlier regarding 850s, but also somewhat of an outlier regarding Pressure come the end.. More solid from the mean.

Why is it a key ECM! I'm pretty sure we had this conversation on here the other day when just because we had a dodgy GFS run, some were saying big ECM run coming up! Does GFS ever put 2 or 3 runs together the same! I think this model is becoming pretty pointless tbh, pergaps it's time it had another upgrade, cause the last one seems to have Downgraded the model. I was almost waiting for your most favourite comment of... Hey the Atlantic always dominates in July and August.. UKMO looks good.. I look forward to Mondays EC46.. Don't get to stressed over GFS it really is struggling. And talking about some good runs... Not a bad GEM out to day 7..

You say its quite in here Karl... Just a thought most people are lapping up the sun after 3 weeks of crap, rather than sitting infront of the box watching England trying to play cricket... Just a thought.. Icon looks rather good, even suggests an Azores/scandy link up... Better output it as to be said... Beautiful here today... More mixed through till. Midweek before improving later in the week and warming up towards the weekend...

I read an interesting piece from NASA recently... The low solar minimum can have effect on the jet stream meandering... But there are so many other variables at play to consider! They also stated even if we entered a Grand Solar Minimum for decades the earth would still continue to warm due to the current emissions etc.. So even these events may not save us in future regarding our love of cold chasing. The GFS 6Z mean looks just cosha out to day 7...plenty of warm settled conditions in the offing, just need to get the first couple of days around mid week out of the way first.

Its been pretty consistent this Summer though Mike.. And tbh all the met office models were singing from the same hym sheet that year. It will certainly give a better reflection than GFS ever will.. And I think tonight's 12z run sums it up pretty well.. I think its looking good now till the backend of the month... It may change then, but it's a long way off and to far out to be certain.

100% agree, I said last night it would be a major suprise if it was that far wrong at day 6...but kudos to the EC46 for not backing the ECM op or mean and going with UKMO.. I really hope the 46 continues this kind of form into the coming Winter.. But for me it's UKMO leading the way, and I'm starting to pay more attention the EC weeklies than I am the operationals and means. And judging by them last night I'm hopeful tonight's 12z will be looking rosey beyond next mid week.. But UKMO you rock.

First out of the blocks is Icon and its starting to look good beyond mid week..

Just to sum up last night's EC weeklies, no real sign of that major interruption that was showing up on the GFS and ECM op next week. Largely settled next week, the best in the South. Moving towards the final 3rd of the month still highlights the best conditions towards the South and less so further North... Worth noting the flow appears to be Mianly of a Wstly source with temperatures mainly hovering around average. Still the same ebb and flow of this Azores ridge and no current signs of a strong build in a favourable area. Currently August is looking a tad more unsettled in the first part of the month as the ridge pulls back W/SW.. The precipitation totals are becoming quite high in W/NW Locations at this point, and again a similar flow of W/NW at times meaning temperatures are never becoming very high.. Warm at times further SE, more like avarage at best further North.. Its been sticking with this signal for the last couple of weeks.. So let's just see how it goes.. Its not bad at times but I'm not seeing lenghty heatwave conditions also. Enjoy your days..

The precipitation amounts for the period next Wednesday and Thursday are literally non existent towards the South.. I'm not so sure the ECM op and GFS have got this correct! I really can't see a model of the standard of UKMO being so wrong on a day 6 chart.. Regarding ECMFW the following week keeps High Pressure influencing the SW... Pressure around 120mb towards those areas,, 1018 towards the Midlands... More typically 1014-1015 further North... Rainfall totals again are low in the South, and not overly high further North.. I'm gonna make a call and suggest ECM op will be looking a little more positive come the 0z run.. With UKMO hanging firm.. If I'm wrong so be it, but that's my honest assessment.

Let's throw the cat amongst the pigeons here... The EC46 looks closer to the UKMO take on things at day 6...High pressure ridging in from the SW with the trough over Iceland.. Thursday... Day 7 also looking decent with High pressure in control for many away from the far North... Nothing like the ECM operational at this stage. Pressure looks to be building again towards next weekend and early the following week.. 1020mb in Southern Ireland and the SW.

There is some backing for the op from the mean at day 6-7 before an improvement takes place later.. I would be very surprised now if the 46 is not going the same way at such a short time frame.. Will no more in the next hour. Its not all bad from the mean though.

Well its not OK.. I will wait for the mean and see if the EC46 is backing it before jumping the gun at each and every operational run..

Yes at @JON SNOW the mean brings some settled conditions at times and more so to the usual suspects... Note though how these semi ridging events never really build strongly NE. Very much like what the EC weeklies have been showing the last couple of weeks, an ebb and flow situation with troughing always prevalent to the N/NW.. Which is what is making the longer term forecast hard to pin down. We need a little more forcing for this to happen and the EC for sure is not flagging this up currently, but I will know a bit more this evening when it runs again. Here's hoping for some good news.

Why... Are you from Iceland big ECM mean coming up... Huge could be the biggest ever summer starter or ender ever... Details to follow very shortly.. Let's call the mean a North South split for argument sake.. Pretty good away from the North.. Big EC46 on Thursday... The biggest since... Well.. The one on Monday...