MATTWOLVES 3

How can you say that so early in the season! We had a fab April and May, and its been followed by a mixed June and potentially a mixed July to come.. Surely we have a chance of a decent August for once, even September.. Mind you I can understand folks getting annoyed by that scenario due to the decreasing daylight hours etc. But I feel with all the talk of a warming world and hotter than normal months we are now beginning to expect these conditions on a more frequent basis, and it does feel like an eternity since that gr8 spell of May... Did that have a knock on affect for the Summer! It's possible.

ECM mean does show an improvement by late next Weekend, but it's still a little to far out to have much faith currently.. The NOAA charts are still illustrating Heights more to the West with the flow more W/NWTLY.. so conditions being average at best and that's not to sound negative cause I hate sounding like that. Ohh and we have some gr8 members on here... Aka Tams and John Holmes who have helped me in explaining certain things weather related... Thanks guys and gals.. Much appreciated as always..

Yes MWB after viewing the EC weeklies the precipitation amounts for Iceland are very low through mid month and out to the end.. These low pressure systems seem to be situating over Scandy where the precipitation amounts are very high at this time frame.

It's a positive ECM mean this evening, it's never overly warm but perhaps warms a tad later in the run. We seem to be seeing alot of these means looking promising just lately.. Decent all the same. .

A look at UKMO GEM and GFS at 144hrs..settled to the south not so settled further North... I said last night the EC46 was average at best, and it appears Exeter may have followed it.. Don't want to discredit anyone on here but these long range efforts from both them and the Beeb are leaving alot to be desired.. The 46 has never highlighted the conditions that they were putting out the last few days.. The mind boggles. But we should get some fine conditions during next week at least in places.. And you know what it's possible we could go against the climatic norm for this August and at last get a decent month.. I can't see this pattern holding firm for all 3 months. But let's be honest if you want great weather right now, the only option looks to be a cheap Mediterranean Holiday.

It just seems like ages when someone posted these charts showing decent conditions. On the other hand it may be due to the fact its been ages since we actually had decent conditions..

The ECM mean is favourable out to mid month but tends to drop away again towards day 14..1014mb as an average for the mean. After speaking with one of our knowledgeable posters earlier it would be interesting to know what signals are currently leading the EC46, because it seems to be in know rush to change the overall pattern. This I Completely agree with. I've noticed some are doubting the Mets thoughts also moving forward... Perhaps Glosea is seeing a more positive trend than some of the other Long Range Models! Will be interesting to see if there update is the same as the last few days, or if its changed somewhat after last night's poor EC. Edit.. I'm with you @JON SNOW on those 500mb charts, they never seem to highlight any real improvement in conditions, its like viewing the 46 at times, where no change ever seems to be fourth coming.

The EC46 is certainly not backing up the EXETER update earlier, like I said earlier conditions look very decent out to mid month beyond that it's still very much an ebb and flow ridge from the Azores, it never really wants to build in strongly or in a favourable position! Temps are around average at best... Towards the final 3rd those precipitation amounts are going up towards the NW in general, with low pressures going around the top of the High also of note is the high precipitation amounts over Southern Scandinavia! Hopefully the Met hold firm with this encouraging forecast, but tonight I'm not seeing it at all on the 46..not through this month anyway. Not to say its correct but it is a model that tends to be good at spotting trends.. Hopefully things look better soon... But in the shorter term next week looks good away from the NW... Dare I say it..... A NW/SE split... More splits than a Banana....

Week 1 With EC46 builds High Pressure with some decent conditions away from the NW and this leads us through into next Weekend.. Week 2 the High again retreats with a more W/NW element to the wind direction, temps at this stage are to be honest quite DISAPPOINTING,around 14c in the far NW to around 18-20c further South... Nothing at this stage to suggest a major warm spell in the next 2 weeks.. Will let you know more about week 3 and 4 a little later..

Not bad at 192hrs..with a ridge moving in again.. Let's see what the EC46 has to say later.. That will do for now..

Yes looks decent Monday to Wednesday Mike all eyes on what comes next.

I'm confused here.. Most of the posts I'm reading are condemning of any fine conditions out to mid month! The ECM mean I'm viewing is pretty positive regarding pressure and the EC46 I've viewed is certainly not showing a trough stuck over us, not to say its wrong but I can't help but notice the Met update is again positive.. No offence to anyone on here who post there thoughts... But who as got it wrong here... The enthusiast or the Pros from the so called worlds best Organisation! Somebody is badly wrong!

Some of the EPS are OK during the next 10 day's.

Yes it seems to be an improving picture for Central/Southern areas next week, but the unsettled conditions remain to the North and West, could be the following week before these areas see an improving picture also. Icon showing that ridge pushing in next week at 120hrs.

Thanks for that, but you do realise you've just posted the Weather online forecast for the week ahead issued this morning by Alexi Veneros...

Yes that looks pretty good, and it's what Brian Glaze was calling for in his extended outlook for Summer, namely a good month in August. I think Weather online are also making a similar call too, would be interesting to know what Tams makes of it... Or perhaps she may find it a little to early just yet..

Some fine weather on the 6z mean... Looks pretty much ridge trough scenario out to mid month.. This is where I feel conditions will then begin to improve with High pressure having more influence.. Just noticed the BBC monthly update is singing from the same sheet as the Met. Calling for big improvements from mid month and even further NW later with greater chance of Hot spells. One to watch for sure.

Firstly you say it's miles away from the Exeter update, which infact they were talking about conditions improving by next Weekend and beyond. And secondly the ECM mean is not to bad at all, we have some decent ridges from the SW at times. I pointed out yesterday further N/NW looks more prone to unsettled conditions in the shorter term and this being backed up from the long range ECM model. Keep in mind that Average Barometric pressure starts at 1013mb and pressure is high or low relative to that benchmark. The mean at least further South is around 1017-1020mb out to mid month which entails not a bad outlook, and certainly not as unsettled as some are making out currently.

Sorry NI...i have a bit of an habit as always referring to a NW/SE split... Which always seems to be the word most used to describe a split from North to South.. The precipitation amounts for NW UK were quite high at times moving forward.. But after that very favourable Exter update even the NW is considered to be looking much better with time. Sorry if it sounded like I was singling out certain areas, as its not always the case.. We will still get some drier areas towards the NW.. Hope things are much better for you before much longer mate..

GFS 6Z mean seams to be moving in the right direction looks increasingly settled towards end of next week, and again more so away from those NW areas.. Absolutely fab update from Exter today, had to read it twice for it to sink in... Dare I say it a better than normal August... A long way off but its certainly long overdue..

After full inspection of last night's EC46 I come to the conclusion we have ridges ebbing and flowing from the SW at times, this pattern persists through July and into August. Some very decent conditions at times away from more Northern locations and warm at times to... I say away from more Northern areas because the High never really builds across the whole UK at any point during the run. Infact more NW areas continue to have quite high rainfall amounts throughout the run, while more Southern parts have much less... Which I would consider quite a normal Summer type occurrence. So there you have it, not great for those further N/NW But pretty decent at times further South.. Feel free to question my thoughts if anyone who as access is seeing it in a different context.

The EC46 Seems keen to build a ridge in by next Tuesday/Wednesday.. This continues throughout the week.. We keep this ebbing and flowing of ridges out to pretty much the end of July.. SW/S/SE areas look more favourable... The general air pressure is basically around 1017 mb to 1020mb at times. Temps remain on the warm side and I'm not seeing any dominant Low Pressure systems at this point.. It seems keen to keep the major Heat to the South, and even Central Europe never looks hot, just relatively warm. Its gr8 to see though that temps over parts of the Antarctica are ranging from - 30 to - 50c.. But that's just me babbling on now.. To sum up, plenty of usable conditions look a good call at times through July, I'm not sure what some are seeing to get so agitated about regarding the Conditions or that perhaps they set the bar to high... But all in all its not that bad after this week.

Your just picking on the climatic norm though! Things don't quite work out like that especially in these AGW days. And there are quite a few who are predicting August to be the better of the 3 Summer months, We may as well say forget Winter this year, because the default pattern is Zonal.

EC46 is only out to July 13th so far... Things look like improving towards backend of next week with a ridge pushing in from the SW at times.

Well UKMO raised a few eyebrows... Wasn't expecting that... Was we Jim...