MATTWOLVES 3

Wow guys, I've not been so excited since Borris announced the first Lockdown... Has strange as that may seem.. Tell you what GFS ens are bringing alot of colder options to the table, and there could well be fine margins of falling snow during the next 10 day's or so! Perhaps the mods may soon be interested in a little competition, regarding the first place to record falling snow... When and where!! Let's keep the excitement going I say, its been a while since we had these kind of encouraging factors.... Long may it continue..

In all honesty mate I think us lot on this forum have more chance of getting the Winter pattern correct... They were miles of the other year! And tbh even the long range Exter updates leave a lot to be desired... The best thing to do would be keep tuned to this forum for further devolpments! I've not been ramping much at all lately, but I actually feel a little more optimistic for the coming few weeks... The GFS ensembles are now starting to churn out a fair few colder runs, and I'm beginning to notice some decent cold pools beginning to appear a little further down the line... Let's worry about December and cross the New Year bridge closer to the time... I'm gutted santa can't work due to covid restrictions, but rest assured I will be ordering a mother of all cold snaps when I contact him on zoom later...

I've done some laughing reading these posts for the past hour folks... And probably gone up a notch with my weather knowledge from reading such great informed posts... Oh and the humour is a tribute to Bobby Ball.. Rock on... Just to add a few of my thoughts to this excellent forum... Regarding the EC46.. Things definitely becoming more unsettled towards mid late next week with rain and stronger winds at times.. This perhaps not lasting for any real time, before High Pressure begins to have more influence come the 2nd week of December.. Tbh I'm seeing a fair amount of settled Conditions towards the South and SE for much of next month... The NW being more prone to occasional bouts of wetter and windier spells... I'm not seeing significant cold at this stage, more of an homegrown cold scenario at times, this bringing frost and fog at times. In all honesty I would take a settled and Frosty Xmas period at this stage, and hopefully something more significant come the New Year! Anyhow the silly season begins in just 4 days... What's not to like... Enjoy it if you can and do take care..

Firstly folks... What you won't get from me ever is a downbeat summary on the forthcoming conditions, even if those conditions suck!! It is what it is... Secondly I would like to congratulate DiagonalRedLine for posting the world's longest ever post the other day.... Wow mate, you must have one hell of a great personal assistant.. Only kidding, that was a fab and insightful post... Anywho, I'm not totally convinced as to were we are heading long term with our conditions, Exeter still talking of colder than average conditions come next month.. Regarding the EC46, High pressure ridging does look the best bet moving on further, and this more especially so towards the South... More Northern areas still being prone to something more unsettled at times, but not exclusively! So some chillier conditions at times with an obvious risk of frost also. At present any colder weather that does occur could be most likely a colder NWTLY type feed at times.. I'm not seeing any signs of major signs of any major Heights in the Greenland area, or the Scandy location for that matter. All along way off and plenty to play for at this early stage... Anyway Lockdown will be over soon, and only to be replaced with a tier 4 system... This year is the worse in living memory... Whatever happens next can surely to god, only be an improving picture... All the best folks

I get your point TSNWK.. The reason I showed those ensembles were just to see if there was any backing for those current Exeter thoughts, and the EC extended anomalies that also point towards a colder December... Its all a long way off, and at this point anything goes.. I would like to see those extended ensembles I posted still showing in another week though... Not to much to hope for us it..

I sense a little trepidation this morning from some of you.. What's the general rule on this forum over the years?? Don't get to hung up over a few operational runs!! Especially from a model that runs 4 times daily, and includes 30 ensemble members! It's towards the backend of this month and more especially early December... When I feelthings will spring to life... Pardon the pun. Are there any ensembles flagging this up?? Well simply put.. YES! On a lighter note... I'm a bit concerned about the having a glass of wine at 9.30am post... Come on guys at least wait till Sunday roast... Seriously enjoy your days and take care.... Onwards and upwards..

Wow.. The place is buzzing and its barely mid month.. So a change expected later next week with a return to something more seasonal like. I'm hearing much about Exeters thoughts on a colder spell come late month and into next. The possibility is there for sure, last nights EC46 is hinting at High pressure having quite an input into next month, now obviously where this sets up could be crucial moving further forward... There is certainly a distinct lack of Atlantic oomph being indicated by the EC Weeklies for a good chunk of December, so I would say the chances of something more seasonal are definitely on the increase.. With frost becoming more common place with time.. This is also being backed up by the EC extended anomalies which have been hinting at a colder December for some time. And on that note I wish you all a great and healthy Weekend... Perhaps it could be time to start ordering that Xmas shopping online, cause I have a feeling December 2nd is gonna be absolute bedlam...

Shows how infrequently Ive been posting lately folks, I've only just noticed the GFS is now including 30 ensemble runs..... Good god... Even more chances to be led up the Garden path! Anyhow it will soon be silly season, so let's get the party started with some potentially colder runs... I still feel December shaping up to be colder than normal!!

Hope your all OK gang... Now so far today we have great news regarding a vaccine... Fingers crossed.. Wouldnt it be fitting if a December 2010 repeat would coincide with the rollout of that vaccine!!! Here's hoping. I'm perhaps a little sceptical of the current EC46 update and more especially the latest 6 month anomalies, namely... They indicate December for scandy and much of Europe to be warmer than avarage!! Yet I sensed a cold pool beginning to devolop during December in those above mentioned areas.. The anomalies are still suggesting a colder than normal December for the UK... For January we have colder Conditions situated in the North and central Atlantic, so I would say the early stages of this Winter are most definitely shaping up better than last year's tepid affair... Fingers crossed, early days..

Hi folks, a little look at last night's EC46.. tbh it's pretty similar to the met update, with perhaps a tenancy to keep things on the settled side throughout the mid November period... And especially to the South! Next week marks a big improvement on conditions, as High Pressure gains control.. These conditions take hold for some time, with perhaps a trend towards more unsettled conditions by mid month.. More especially towards the NW. Looking further ahead the trend suggests yet more settled conditions out towards the final 3rd...and indeed these conditions show signs of persisting into the 1st part of December. Temps at this stage look potentially on the cool side, and the Frost risk will know doubt be increasing given the right circumstances! Looking a little further afield... Temps are starting to look quite cold across most of scandinavia and also Central and Eastern Europe.. A chilly start to Winter looking possible then at this stage. All along way off, but that's the current thoughts from the long range EC... HAVE A GR8 WEEKEND

I'm confused... I'm not sure whether I got an hour less in bed or an hour more.. Basically folks we have some more unsettled conditions to get out out of the way this coming week, before finally some signs of an improvement come next Weekend. In fact things looking much drier come the following week with High pressure well in control, that's the plan from ECM anyway! Take a look at the wider scale Temperature profiles.. Around avaerge or a tad above fro the UK.. any meaningful cold reserved for Northern Scandy and the far East... Plenty of heat much further South, and hey presto... Bone chilling cold for the Greenland location... Come on Greenland don't get hogging all the cold like last Winter! Spill a little further SE. Early days just yet and certainly not getting to hung up over a lack of cold showing just yet. If I recall this time last year the signs were looking positive for the first stages of winter... And look what followed!! Have a fab end of Weekend, and keep them neighbours off ya Back garden.

Most definitely signs of a more benign scenario taking place as we move towards next weekend. Regarding a blocked scenario over Greenland towards later November, currently is looking less likely... Heights of around 1005-1010,with low heights over Iceland and a trend to more unsettled conditions and a more Wstly flow being highlighted currently... But as always this is a very long way off and subject to much change, its just a case of spotting potential trends from an early starting point.. Will be interesting to see those extended EC 6 month anomalies come the 5th Of November!! The current ones suggesting a cooler December followed by a less cold Jan and Feb... Hopefully they will decide to make a U turn.

Just to firm up on the overnight EC46 run folks... Most definitely signs of a big improvement coming our way. Later next week and beyond we are seeing increasing signals for High Pressure to dominate for some time, and especially for more Southern parts. I'm not gonna go down to route of potential temps at this stage, but obviously night time frost and fog will become a key player, during the day where any fog lingers it would remain on the chilly side.... During any sunnier moments I would imagine it would feel quite please for the time of year. Looking further ahead we perhaps see a trend to less settled conditions, especially towards the NW.. the far South perhaps fairing better, this pattern persists into early December..... Ahhh... Now we are getting into silly season... At thu stage a mixed start with temps around average look the current call, Any significant cold being reserved for scandy and Eastern Europe!! All along way off though just yet, hopefully before much longer that long awaited cold will begin to pay our shores a visit.. Enjoy your Weekends and stay safe.

Hi mate I'm well aware your after something a little akin to Autumn regarding weather conditions. So here goes... The latest EC Weeklies keep thing rather unsettled over the next week or so, but definite signs of High Pressure building towards end of the month or early November! This would bring sunny spells and an increasing risk of fog and frost for many... Especially where High pressure centres, and that looks likely towards more Southern parts... Beyond this we possibly keep things on the settled side towards the South, and this continues towards mid month. We then see signs of more unsettled conditions emerging from the NW... at least for a time!!! And hey presto again we signs of High pressure building from the SW towards the end of the month, again bringing perhaps settled and potentially chilly conditions with frost likely... All a long way off, but that's how it looks to be shaping up at present... Keep safe and well all of you..

Lovely touch added to this forum with the extra funny face icons... Now more posters can laugh at my ridiculous posts.. Firstly great posting in here as per usual.. Secondly a quick run down of the prospects for the next few weeks, courtesy of the EC46.. Unsettled sums up next and towards the end of the month.. Signs of High pressure building and more especially for areas further south come the start of the new month. Infact periods of calmer conditions could continue through till the mid November period in many places further South. Further North tends to be more prone to unsettled conditions from the NW at times but even here expect some better spells. Towards November's end, Low pressure looks to potentially gain the upper hand once again, but this is a hell of a long way off.. Any other signs? Well as you would expext fog and frost will be a good shout in this more settled start to November, and I'm sure there are a fair few of you that would welcome that. Pressure looks relatively high towards Greenland as well come the latter part of next month, and boy are those temperatures dropping like a stone there, with - 30c being highlighted, also colder Conditions developing over Scandy and into Russia... Very early days all of this, but I still feel we could be looking at an early shot of Winter this year... For how long and how severe, will be very much up for debate at this early stage. Happy hunting folks and keep safe.

I see the Winter countdown is beginning to gain momentum! Lovely jubiley.. I think Blue gave an update to the EC46 the other day and he's spot on. In the shorter term we have some better conditions for a time next week... Towards next weekend things go downhill with Low pressure taking control, spells of wet weather and pretty chilly at times also. There is perhaps a chance of some ridging at times towards months end which would bring quiter spells and frost and fog more likely. Further into November we see more unsettled conditions taking hold again, and once again it remains pretty chilly. I'm also noticing Heights in the Greenland area throughout much of this period... Now fast forward a few more weeks, and things could start to get interesting! The anomalies do point to a colder November and December, so let's not rule out a front loaded start to the season this year. Whatever your doing this weekend, keep safe..

Hope your all doing OK guys and gals in these still difficult times. Tonight's EC46 flags up a more promising spell for this Weekend and for much of next. Things perhaps turn a little more unsettled beyond this point with spells of rain and wind breaching many from the W/NW at times. The worst of the conditions being further NW as is often the case.. As we move into November further spells of unsettled conditions at times and again more so further North. Settled conditions still look possible at times further South, and given the time of year fog and frost could be an issue in these more settled spells. Temps around average in the more wetter spells, but becoming cooler during the finer slots, especially at night, as would be expected. And finally tonight's anomalies have been updated... Currently they suggest a cooler than normal November and December... Could we be looking at a front loaded Winter!!! Dare I say it.... A 2010 type scenario!! That would be bliss.... But those anomalies are not interested in anything beyond that point...the current guidance is for a milder January and February.... With perhaps March becoming colder... A long way off, but that's how it potentially could play out this season... All options remain on the table at such an early stage though.. Keep safe and well...

Better late than never... A quick update on last night's EC weeklies... Unsettled in the short to mid term.. Definite signs of an improvement towards mid month.. And hey presto these conditions look like prevailing till the final 3rd of the month.. Towards the end of the month there are some signs of more Low Pressure influence from the NW. Early signs for November are still for some at times settled conditions, especially further South... With periods of wetter conditions still likely, and more prominent towards the NW.. At this stage there are no early signs of anything to cold out towards mid November... With temps on the whole pretty much around average... Very early days in the countdown towards Winter proper though! Hope you all have a great weekend and stay safe at all times..

Hi East 17 boy.. How's the rest of the old boy band doing... Just kidding mate... Thanks to Karl...aka Jon Snow for giving us a little bit of cheer with those CFS charts. For me it's far to early to make predictions for this coming Winter.. Let's not forget its still over 2 months away! Regardless of what Exeter and Gav are predicting and I have respect for both those mentioned..The EC long term anomalies are painting a poor picture for this winter overall.. The last update was September the 5th..and it was showing alot of the Northern Hemisphere to be milder than average, with perhaps January being the colder of the months... But that's very early days, the next update will be October the 5th,so I will update you further come then. But in the meantime perhaps best to not get to stressed over preceedings this early on... For the record I feel a Winter of mixed fortunes looks a good call, and I personally think we will get more action than the previous one.... (wouldn't take much would it) Then we have to consider the possibility of SSW events which would completely shake things up at short notice. Predicting a mild winter will be correct 80 or 90% of the time, with or without skill... But anyone who comes on here and gives good reason for a cold winter to come, and get it right, deserve full credit... Make no mistake about it..

What's in store? Late Summer! Autumn in full swing, or early bite of Winter! Last nights EC Weeklies bring a very unsettled spell by mid next week, quite a deep area of Low pressure bringing rain and strong winds to many... Also it will be feeling very cool to say the least.. Beyond this and towards mid month, we do get some ridging at times into more Southern parts, so fine conditions will be likely at times. Areas further North will still be subject to further unsettled conditions from the W/NW.. But that's not to say conditions will be poor all the time. Conditions perhaps more generally unsettled come the months end and into early November.. On a whole at this stage temps probably around average North to South... Typically 8 to 12C countrywide. So on the whole, very typical Autumn conditions.. The Winter anomalies will be out on the 5th of October, so by then a chance to see how the first part of winter will be setting out... In the eyes of the EC 46 anyway. Have a fab Weekend if you can.

I'm quite surprised how many are using the CFS to offer some kind of guidance moving this far forward. This model will do nothing but lead one up a massive Garden path! Not so sure about a mixed October. Tonight's EC weeklies does show a much more unsettled and cooler spell from next mid week.. It perhaps settles down a tad early the following week. Beyond this point a N/S split looks the most likely scenario with perhaps some of the unsettled Conditions spreading further SE at times... Out towards mid month and we still have indications of plenty of settled Conditions at times, and these perhaps more extensive at times.. All in all its not the worst of outlooks for the next few weeks... Early days being the only caveat! Still far to early to be talking of significant cold or Northern Blocking for me, but I will give an update of the EC46 anomalies at the beginning of October for any potential early signs of Winter. A very good night to you all.

Hope your all well folks... Last night's EC46 keeps with the settled theme for the next week.. Later next week perhaps a more NW/SE split devoloping. Towards the months end we still have High Pressure Influence for more Southern parts, but perhaps more unsettled further North at times.. Moving into October the general theme of ridging at times for many parts, so still a chance of plenty of fine and settled conditions at times. It's not until the final 3rd of next month that things eventually become much more unsettled from the the NW.. I'm sure many would take that outcome considering all the current uncertainties around the world.. That's how it looks right now.... Enjoy the fine weather if you can. All the best... Matt

Enthralling reading guys... Last night's EC46 shows a very decent spell of conditions next week with High Pressure becoming centred over Scandy.. These conditions hold firm for some time, however there are indications of more Low Pressure influence towards the NW come the months end.. Looking further ahead we generally see a more mixed pattern into October especially further North, and towards lower Pressures situated over Iceland... Worth noting that we still have High Pressure ridges bringing periods of fine Conditions towards the South through most of next month... There will be a little more of a mixed element towards things by this stage though... Enjoy your Weekends and with infection rates rising... Keep safe...

And the latest thoughts from tonight's EC46 looks promisingly good.. The Weekend looks rather spiffing and its looks like quite a warm up in places... Pressure remains high towards the East and South throughout next week also.. I would call this potentially a very decent spell coming up.. Nothing to indicate really unsettled over the next couple of weeks.. That's the latest folks.. Have a good un.

It's Sunday.. So hallaluayaa Amen so fourth... Here we are staring down the barrel of Autumn and the ECM serves us a treat... And hey presto the mean is non to shabby... Good lord it could be in the words of David Jason... Bloomin perfick. Beat ya to it si... Lol