MATTWOLVES 3

Ohhh thats ok Mate,I always like to share the Love Not so sure about Santa clause is coming to town,but the Vortex maybe coming! Its so displaced this year,and its obviously got a major case of St Vitus dance

Come on guys,let's not pick on others who are seeing the outcomes in a different light! Anyway that's my impression of me being a mod...I don't think I would last too long in the job.. cold pools in Siberia,cold pools in Canada,Mongolia and probably even in Jamaica...who cares where they are,we need them here and pronto Plenty of cold options on the 6Z ens....Trust me it will probably come all at once.

Think about it folks...How would you feel if everyone was putting you down all day,and constantly talking about you. GFS needs anti anxiety medication come the evening run,and does tend to get groggy! It wakes up fresh and alive come the morning and serves us up something much appealing...we need to back off it folks,before the poor thing suffers a breakdown..

Come to papa....all is forgiven..

I wouldn't discount this colder settled Xmas,I can't see the the met being as far out as the 18Z is proclaiming! Has much as I ramp up those cold ensembles,I just can't see significant cold at this stage..Be prepared for something more Atlantic driven as we start the New Year...An SSW is most likely going to be required to shake things up again,its going to be very unfortunate if favourable synoptic deliver nothing at all. The last thing we want is for the Vortex to couple and regain its strength...its going to need a big hit with a favourable outcome,but worryingly the Long range Models do not seem to be favouring this outcome just yet...Glosea and 46 for instance..thats not to say they are correct and a lot can change! I'm still thinking final 3rd of next month we could get lucky,but thats a long way off and much will change up to that point.Be prepared to be patient here folks, and let's face it,we are used to playing the long game....start to despair if we are still in a very similar position this time next month,until then keep the faith. GFS 18z...what a garbage run from a garbage stable...last night it was all out cold,tonight its completely gone the other way...this time tomorrow it will be Day after tomorrow scenario again...laugh....I nearly messed myself...Even me gran laughed at that run.

I wouldn't imagine there would have been much change with those SSTS Mike,being as you only posted em last night....at least give it a week!! Lol Extended ECM mean out to day 14 and we keep 850s around -2 to -3c....pressure close to 1020mb...so settled looks the odds on favourite till months end...beyond that I feel perhaps an Atlantic uptick with some wetter conditions,but I don't think it will be necessarily locked in...better things await...

Going on the ECM ens I would say colder with some possibly widespread frosts looks a good call for the Xmas period out to the New Year..Im aware the longer range signals point towards Milder and wetter early next month,but let's not get to concerned about that at this juncture... Have a great and stress free evening folks...tomorrow will im sure bring many more ups and downs...and thats the way we love it

I sense a little Monday morning blues in here this evening... Things ain't to bad currently,and we have the big old 46 tomorrow to dampen the spirits even further. I will do my best with a positive update...in the meantime how's a little...I've got that Friday feeling GFS deep fi Hysteria..

Can't see why so many moan about GFS... Im loving some of the ens out to day 10...plenty of options in the table..Just imagine a great NH pattern setting up now,then a major SSW comes along and brings an Heatwave.. Heaven forbid folks, when Midnight Mass comes next week,I will prey that doesn't happen.

Pretty solid ens out to day 11...take ya pick there's plenty to mull over.

And just to think they used to lead the way in Meteorology!! Now they take the GFS as a gospel run..ECM for me is closer to the mark..Just watch GFS backtrack come the 0z runs.. Edit....looks like the Beeb should have waited for the 18z to roll out

Wayhay mon.. That ECM certainly put the GFS op to shame,but like I said don't be to discouraged there are plenty of positives to be taken from the GFS ens.Never take any notice of those sooth sayers calling time on Winter....face not bovered! Big Steve M called his retirement for Winter the other day...I noticed he was lurking,waiting to pounce....Great post as always Steve...one last post you say!!!!!! Hmmmmm,I'm not so sure myself Get innnnnnnnnn

I tell you what the EC46 mean last night had little interest in any real cold through next month...but bizarrely run the sequence through all the weeks and the pattern is completely stuck,almost like its unwilling to bring a change or doesn't know how too. On the other hand my friend,the 46 control run is completely going against the mean...Its keen to bring substantial Heights over Greenland towards mid next month and to keep them for quite some time! I really hope its onto something with this,and will be checking again on Thursdays 12z run to see if its keeping with this pattern..certainly plenty of hope for me right now. And folks please don't give up hope on the back of 1 bad GFS run...please...this model as more personalities than Donald Trump...we have been here before dont forget...only last week the towel was thrown in...keep ya towels for your substantial meals,when the pubs open of course..

The coldest one i could find is p21,and most definitely an Estly blast....brrrr

Gonna have to agree mate,alot of topplers coming through on those 6z ens,ridge,trough and colder enough at times for wintryness to appear at short notice. Perhaps we see enough of a pressure rise around the Xmas period to favour something frosty,which I most definitely like...most certainly not your normal default pattern of wind,rain and persistent mild.I will take that as an improvement.

Once again plenty of encouragement from the ensembles,so many wanting to push Heights further N/NW towards Greenland and Iceland, a fair amount of energy coming from the Western side of Greenland could erode Heights but thats just one possibility of many! In all honesty I'm very impressed with this output and it seems the outlook for once is at least offering some nice prizes..we have a ticket for the draw...1st place will be a jackpot outcome,but I reckon 2nd,3rd and 4th will be offering a decent payout also.

After further inspection of tonight's 46 its not all one way street...The Ecm 46 mean is keen to reduce Heights and increase Heights around Iberia towards months end..And thus as been showing for a fair few runs now..Would most likely tie in with the met update.. The control run is much more robust with Heights towards the NW though and we do have colder members amongst the 50ensembles..But worth noting there are also a fair few milder runs.Another reason to believe we have a wide range of options moving into the New Year...but the mean remains stubborn with its less colder outlook and can't be discarded...so perhaps its best we keep our feet firmly on the ground and not get to excited just yet.

Brilliant stuff si...now go and get ya dinner done before the dog eats it ..

The ensemble mean is only out to Sunday at this stage, we are looking at a whole batch of members 50 I think,which all start out with different initial outcomes. Keep in mind the longer range forecasts will be significantly less accurate as the lead time increase. The ensembles may be able to pick up periods of warmer or colder conditions 3 or so weeks from now,but wouldn't be able to nail down a significant weather event till around a week out. The main focal point being these ensembles are aimed at evaluation of temperature trends. So they remain a good guideline for trends,but should not necessarily be taken as the be all and end all...they can make a complete dogs dinner of it...some years they nail the pattern rather well,others they can be shocking.

Nice ens,and the mean is down on the 0z run....ooooosssshhhhaaaa

Cheers mate,sweet NH profile,and here's a look at things closer to home.

It will be rolling out around 9 or so mate..i will bring you an update later,if its dodgy I will leave it to someone else..

Plenty of positives from those ens again..always best to hold fire until we have viewed them also..I would say 70% chance of colder Xmas,and a 50/50 chance of further cold scenario's beyond this point..all eyes on the ECM then the 46 later on...come on old misely guts EC bring us some cheer..

Like others have said,most definitely interesting NH synoptic appearing...consider what we were locked into last year,and all of a sudden things look quite rosey.

Things must be looking up if your gerrin a tad excited Mark...like you say things looking much better.. Merry Xmas mate