MATTWOLVES 3

The mean stays pretty solid ,and the ens remain pretty cold.. im not to stressed over this output currently though,because I'm expecting to see dramatic changes in the next 10 days or so.

Do I detect a little anxiety in the forum!! These are exciting time folks,regardless of what the current outputs are throwing out..if you think they are confused right now,just wait for later next week when they cater the SSW into account...there are gonna be some wild and crazy runs I can tell ya. Some of the ens now showing some much better cold shots,but I expect things to gradually get better...we are Still in a cold snap,and even here we still have lying snow...2 days running...wow,thats an achievement in itself. Ok folks New Years eve may be cancelled for gatherings thus year,but I'm sure the Government will.allow you 2 close friends....namely..JONNNY WALKER,AND JACK DANIELS...go on indulge a little,you have earned it...and let's make a toast to better days,and snow charts galore..

I quite like the UKMO this morning,looks like large parts of the North under -8 850s. Matt Hugo saying 5th of Jan looking like the big day,and the trop vortex being in such a state that an SSW was not needed to bring it down,and its more than likely just gonna increase -NAO situation. So I would say get ready for some crazy output to start showing some time next week...perhaps its best to view the current runs with a very relaxed and open mind..a lot is about to happen...Closer to home im being told by the met to expect light snow tonight and tomorrow...what happened to that 500m snow line...lots of changes and dramas coming I reckon.

GFS precipitation charts highlight potential snow showers coming across the North Sea next week...and a little further on we see more widespread areas of wintry conditions...all be it,deep into fi,but nice to see all the same...I've got me shovel primed and ready for action...

Firstly folks a quick look at tonight's UKMO at day 6,and the impressive Heights over Greenland.. And with all the talk of an SSW which appears to be taking place now as we speak...its exciting...I feel like it a couple of weeks from Xmas again and I'm gerrin excited over what presents I may have...sorry folks I'm a big kid at heart...its just the thought of what could be coming for you. So also in this post I've included a graph showing the average temperature anomaly.0-30 days after a major warming event,with the main cooling over Eurasia and the Eastern States. Also a graph illustrating increased snowfall in the same areas as above. There is also a graph that shows how a major SSW impacted the 84/85 winter. And how it played a major role in its development. So even though there may be know guarantees in anything in life...I will sure as hell take those odds for increased wintryness..

I'm failing to understand this..Its cold right now, quite a few of us have seen falling,settling snow,and widespread frosts look likely..your talking like we are in the middle of a Zonal rut!! Couldn't be further from the truth..The outlook is looking very promising..The met update looks promising,and we are on the verge of an SSW..so I would say its completely plausible that many will be looking at those 10 day charts...especially if everything goes to plan,and we receive a QTR...Whats not to get excited about,and considering the dark times we are living in,people really do need the desire to get excited..

I think you mean that in feet mate..we've had settling snow at around 4-500 feet,with more higher up...your talking 1800feet with those figures...wich would mean temperatures would be quite a bit higher.

What strikes me with tonight's 12z ens,is that the cold pools to the North and North East look much more meaningful...so plenty to keep us focused in the coming days...perhaps some battle ground scenarios before much longer...could be some severe frosts also where snow cover is in evidence too..lots to look forward to,and hopefully will keep your minds off the dire Covid situation right now.. if you can have a jolly New years Eve...then please do so.

Plenty of excitement in the 6z ens folks..looks like quite an upgrade from Exeter in the short term also...mentions snow risks spreading North from the Continent...one to keep an eye on for sure things could get a tad spicy...come onnnn.

Fab pictures folks...and a big hi from a snowy West Midlands. 20201229_120658.mp4

Decent 6z mean.. perhaps a reload from the North beyond day 10...possibilities galore...keep it cool folks..many tweaks in the coming days...some for better,some for worse...a bit like your wedding vows... know drama here..second day of falling snow,I think u need some smelling salts...im in shock Edit..wish I had taken a picture from the front of the house now..snow piling up on main road. 20201229_114239.mp4

Its outrageous si...the models have gone barmy...even the fi GFS snow charts want to keep piling it in...They used to say if it sounds to good to be true...it probably is!! Nahhh...not in this case.

Great output guys..the extended ECM mean out to day 14....is yes..you guessed it....staying cold. And not long posted from John Hammond..its cold out there,but things could become a lot colder.. signs now of an imminent SSW..looks like all the big boys are now on board also. Great EC46 anomalies update also..Hights to the North and North West look the key developments.

Fab end to ECM,how often do we see this kind of set up moving into January...perhaps 2010 the last time,but that did tend to fizzle out come the end of December...its what's to follow that is really intriguing me now..latest tweet from Marco Petagna claiming that there is now multi model agreement on a major split of the vortex...So we could see further updates from Exeter becoming more and more encouraging..fingers crossed folks,but this could be looking exceptional.

Here you go folks,a look at the hi resolution ECM 12z 3 day run...and to me it looks like large areas are in for some of the dandruff....lovely ECM run as well,a good mean to follow surely.

Anyone questioning cold pools...go check some overnight temps in Finland and Siberia...trust me there is some serious cold out there..let things just align for those colder temps to manifest...and like others state we are on the cusp of magnifying our very own home grown cold pool...Thus smacks of 2018 to me,but with added oomph...whatever comes now will be at the heart of Winter,rather than the scrag end...all systems go...let the fun and games begin gang....fantastic ens by the way...merwahhhh

I'm not sure the GFS as gone crazy...its becoming anxious at its favourite Atlantic kind of weather not being anywhere to be seen..keep in mind this model is well known for going zonal at some point in its run....where are you Atlantic...Good lord we have potential snow makers cropping up all over the place..This could be epic,if these trends continue..and trust me the signs are good,when Mr GFS as know interest in zonal at all. God im excited

Way hay folks.. I've been waiting since the Winter of 2017/18 for snow and finally today I got it...a nice covering,with perhaps another risk tonight. A great Ecm Mean again,and some cracking GFS 6Z ens also..we looked locked into a cold pattern for sure. I said I would run naked through through the snow if it came...here goes..

I'm surprised you were getting cold feet crew..These little changes for better or worse will crop up occasionally,but the prognosis was still beneficial...Its only a matter of time before these models start to pick up on those encouraging developments in the strat..But as it stands...kudos to you,because I think you were one of the first to state some time ago,that this Winter looks much more interesting,and if I recall...last year you had know appetite for anything wintry at all..so far so good mate..give me mystic megs number and I will by you a drink...lol just joking...

The ECM mean goes with the Estly also...the mean stays solid,little change from the 0z..Things going nicely,but I'm expecting upgrades in the coming days. A rather satisfying day of model output im sure you would agree.

I tell you what folks..looking at some of the ens,you would think a reversal had already taken place,and the Estly feeds were already building..obviously with the correct outcome,those 850s will become severe. A COLD WEEK AHEAD..CHECK SNOW OPPORTUNITIES...CHECK THE ATLANTIC HAS LOST THE PLOT,AND DOESNT KNOW WHERE TO GO....CHECK POSSIBLE MAJOR SSW ABOUT TO OCCUR...CHECK. A WINTER OF MUCH MORE PROMISE THAN RECENT YEARS....CHECK,CHECK, CHECKMATE.

It looks like significant warming in the strat above North Pole.. fairly strong signal for it to be a major event also...thats the Marco thoughts currently....wow thats music to my ears,just that little bit if luck,and we could be staring down the barrel of something very note worthy.

Here it is mate...looking pretty good also.

Absolutely no complaints from me on this NH profile...things ticking along very nicely.

Decent end to the Icon...looks to me like if it were to run another day or 2,we could be importing colder 850s..And with Low Heights to the South,that risk of wintryness remains there. Also a good Exeter update...significant snow risk for High Ground and even other areas away from coasts...and it remains cold..good start to the New Year...im as happy as a pig in dung.