MATTWOLVES 3

All this talk of heat is making me froff at the mouth... Well parched!!! So I will take a look at some appreciable rainfall amounts towards the NW over the coming hours.. This rain almost extending into NW parts of the Midlands for a time. Things improving on Monday... They do say get the rain in first and the heat will follow. Wednesday also looking of interest, thunderstorm potential devoloping through the Midlands Northwards.. The SE looking to stay hot/sunny and parched.... Jammy gits!

In my experience guys when they say plenty of sunny spells, expect the opposite... And I would imagine that works the other way round to! I'm still seeing largely sunny skies on Tuesday... Wednesday the same, but with an increasing risk of thundery showers later... Wouldn't get to hung up about it anyway... Because by the end of the week we are back in more typical conditions.... Let the hunt for plume 3 commence.... This time one with balls....

Here is the mean in all its glory.

The precipitation charts I posted last night.... Which by the way I shouldn't have... Showed alot of rain towards the NW.. and only the far SE was really immune. I also mentioned September was showing as a drier and relatively warm month... They are accesable on weather.us but you need to be a member to view them.

I only hope the EC46 is wide of the mark for the far NW cause it shows one hell of a lot of rainfall... I no its not my backyard but I would hate to see what that model is serving up for them to happen.

How I envy you SEeners!! And easteners

My mistake, I'm getting ahead of myself here, I forgot for a second we was at day 10...back to school matt you thicko.

Like for like! It wasn't really supported by the mean though crewe.

The ECM is becoming as erratic has the gfs for sticking a low pressure slap bang over us.. I've got a feeling this will look different come the mean.

Be interesting so see if the extended ecm ens ensembles back the gfs up tonight... I have a feeling they will. They seem to be in agreement now out to 14 days... Not bad ensembles if you ask me. OK major heat lovers won't be satisfied with the sub 10c mean.. Rainfall amounts look quite low, and pressure fairly decent.

It's quite a positive 12z mean moving forward. High pressure looks to have quite a bit of control.

No dramas folks.... Plume 3 is winding up.... And they tell me everything comes in 3s!!! 3rd time lucky perhaps!! This time more widespread.... August perhaps plumetastic!!

Its actually the same for October as well! Good signs moving into November/December..... Don't shoot the messanger though.. These things have a habit of going boobs up.

I would have thought the gfs 12z would be good enough to generate a 35-36c in that E//SE quarter if it sunshine is widespread...central areas I would still expext 28-32c with enough sun. So it deserves a big up for the 2nd time within a month...

Icon 12z...there is heat and it lasts the longest in the E/SE. I would have thought low to mid 30s is a distinct possibility out to Thursday... Fresher conditions later next week look a good bet... Still respectable temps though.

Just has we are about to see a warm up, spare a thought for the states, where the heat is intense out to the Eastern seaboard... Extreme in places.

Seems pretty close to the EC Karl... Which is flagging up the NW has having a very wet month... The SE in comparison is largely benign, but even here wet weather can be expected.. These models didn't get much glory through the winter months... EC.. Glosea... Which just goes to show how difficult it can be to predict weather in a small island.. But let's not forget sometimes these models will pick up on trends and be correct!! So we can never completely overlook them! ..

Just had a look at the long term ec46 and September Is coming up with below average precipitation and above average temperature anomaly for the bulk of the uk..... Patience... Let's see how this plays out!!! Indian summer anyone!

In fairness to Chris I think has he pointed out, its useable conditions for most, without being spectacular. Yes it's a far cry from early June and for most it would be welcome. Not so welcome when your chasing extremes!

Good point MWB, looking at the ECM precipitation charts would also indicate the Atlantic is struggling to breakthrough, with the bulk of rain and showers being pegged to the NW.

The Ecm extended mean has indicated this for several days... Pretty much average conditions temperature wise. There is no major signal though for either settled or unsettled Conditions... Perhaps it pretty much typical UK summer conditions.... Not to bad away from the NW. The 6z is pretty much falling into line with the ECM by day 14....a mean of under 10c upper air temps, and the pressure around 1015mb.

Not alot changing on the extended ecm ens out to day 14...the mean a tad under 8c, a fair few runs above this, the pressure shows around 1016mb,and again a fair few runs above this... Probably a 50/50 split. Certainly no signs of a guaranteed unsettled spells.... Looking at the ECM precipitation charts out to the end of the week show the bulk of rain and shower activity mostly to the NW.

We have everything here on the 18z...Greenland heights and scandy heights!

The icon probably deserves more credit than it gets though, it has been the first to pick up on a pattern change more than once... Vorsprung durch Technik.....

The general concensus from the extended ensembles is for fresher conditions to spread from the W/NW by end of the week... Beyond that the mean is pretty much what we have been experiencing the last couple of weeks... Looking at the pressure graphs, there appears no clear signal for any pattern to dominate. I would say with some confidence it's going down the traditional path of a NW/SE split... Temps probably remaining pretty decent in sunnir spells. The EC46 paints a Terrible picture for the NW next month... But this is a long way off, and all seasonal type models need to be taken with a huge pinch of salt.