MATTWOLVES 3

Very nice Karl, but I think them temps will only suit Chris if they are the overnight lows...

I think it's about time weather apps were abolished... The ones for the met have been showing warm sunny spells for here since Monday... And it's remained cloudy all day! I'm looking at one this morning that shows sunny spells from 1pm,this has now been pushed back to 4pm!! The met app shows cloudy all weekend, and 19c...yet when you read there summary it says warm sunny spells.... This is becoming a complete farce now..... Rant over.

ECM looking like the rogue of the pack this morning, not viewed the mean as yet. Gem on the other hand is a fairly good run from start to finish.

I think your living up to that name, with that remark! By the time your summer gets going it will indeed be winter!

Far to early to say that Don... Winters will only cease to occur when there is no know longer any cold pools left on earth... I dont wanna p on everyone's summer parade... But I reckon we are long overdue a severe one!! You just watch the NAO stay negative later this year. I just can't wait for Tamara and the other big guns thoughts for this coming winter.. Back on topic... The ECM mean still not as bad has the op regarding low pressure next week.. It looks to me the NW most certainly becoming more unsettled... Those further SE.. Not so much... The ens do paint a gradual reduction in pressure.. Even the mean... But still a little more pleasing than the op... Still an unresolved situation if you ask me.

Got to agree with you there mate... Any unsettled Conditions I feel will be mainly affecting the NW of the uk.

Just like last night, the 12z plants low pressure slap bang over us at day 10....got a feeling this will be an outlier, and the mean will not agree...

I would pretty much call that cross model agreement at day 5. ECM UKMO GFS.. Further ahead with ECM out to day 7....can high pressure squeeze back in and shunt that low pressure!!! out to 192hrs...certainly better than last night's 12z...low pressure not as dominant.

Yep, and by December the winter is over posts will be flying in... Other than that.... Looking forward to it Feb

Looking good at 120hrs with some of the main models so far today. ECM ICON UKMO GFS Ecm was the 0z run, all the others are 12z.

Yes karl, even though its at a very long time period, about 13 of the 20 ensemble runs have us in either warm or very warm conditions. Petty those charts were at a 14 day period....

Strooth....no wonder you get downbeat with the uk conditions when that's the type of heat you like... That's intense, death Valley style.... British rail would never cope with that.... They would say its the wrong kind of heat.... Just to put that into context... Its currently 35c there at night... And mid to high 40s tomorrow...

Your just not feeling it... In lengthy sunny spells this weekend.. 23-25c perhaps!! If you think back Chris you was tearing your hair out in early June with the output then, so you have to admit this is so much better!! August still to come yet, and tbh, I feel its going to be a good one... Anyhow here is a set of ensembles to bring you some cheer mate!! Think I may pop there myself for a we break....

No doubt about it, the operational completely lost the plot with that low pressure system over us at day 10...has Mike pointed out, a large degree of uncertainty again beyond 7 days.

Ecm mean not to bad.... Not quite as severe with the low pressure that the op put us under in the latter frames...

Cheers Mike... Not so sure about ecm at day 9/10, could it be overplaying the low!! Even so, high pressure still close to our shores, even at this stage... Will be an interesting mean.

Not bad at all weather watchers, if your thinking of taking a we break this weekend, consider the UK... Looks pleasently spiffing. A look at the models at day 6 shows strong agreement for a perfectly placed build of pressure. Charts... UKMO ICON GEM GFS GFS LEGACY.. lovely jubiley

The day to day detail for the weather this week alone is gonna prove hard to pin down. So to entail there is no signs of an heatwave in the next 16 days is a bit rich!! If I tried to bring you a forecast for nearly 3 weeks time right now, I would be offering about a 0-5% chance of that coming off! Back to the here and now. The North looks quite unsettled over the next few days, lots of showers and possible storms towards midweek, the South looks a fair bit better, perhaps some showers coming into the W/SW on Thursday.. Beyond that, shaping up to be a good weekend... Not so sure about next week though.... Far from a done deal if you ask me.

Working overtime this evening with these charts it's not a bad mean tbh! Low pressure not quite as dominant has the operational showed at day 8 or 9...I'll settle for that.

Ecm as you were, some showers around, especially mid week into Thursday. Friday into the weekend high pressure building, looks like a good spell at this point... Beyond that low pressure showing signs of pushing down from the NW,, long way off, and hopefully it won't stick around like the last one did for yonks Also worth noting is high pressure still close by to the SW.. so let's see if the mean can play on this a little.

Quite liking the GEM 12z, looking good for next weekend and into the start of the next. Temps perhaps mid 20s at best..

Can you offer a bit more in depth detail to this summary!

I'm with Karl on that one, completely agree.... Icon most definitely showing some strong ridging NE by next weekend, and temps on the up... Not bad at all.

The GEM mean clearly showing the low heights to our NW/N and high heights to our South. Not so good in the far NW, middle of the road inbetween, and much better to the South looks a good call at this stage.

You seeing any signs of a NW/SE split devoloping Karl towards the final 3rd of the month, or are your cards still very much on the table!?