MATTWOLVES 3

Just to think Karl a couple of days a go, I said I thought the trough to our NE was being overplayed.... And I think some thought I was mad.... You no what I think it's about the only time I've got something right!!! I must be getting better, so many good posters on here, make that job much easier...., Ps... Here are some highlights of the mean.. Edit... There was a couple of others stating things were not looking as bad as some were making out.... Hats of to you guys.... I award you a gold star...

You have to wonder if they are actually taking into account the latest ECM ensembles and dets when they issue there evening forecasts!!!! Personally I've not watched a BBC forecast since the met was relieved of there contract!! yes it does cool down a tad the weekend but I feel it warms up again next week.

Much better mean than the last couple of days. Relatively happy with that.

I wasn't expecting the ECM to follow the GEM... Fantastic run... Well pleased... I had a feeling the trough to the NE was being overplayed.... I still can't believe how good it is.

I'm liking the GEM alot, high pressure is never to far away from the S/SW, and temperatures are always on the impressive side... Me love it long time.

Thanks Tamara for a wonderful post and delivered under difficult times for you.. Much appreciated. Icon 12z bringing a decent end to the week, and it looks potentially very warm in the S/SW to boot, mid to high 20s perhaps given sunnier sky's. Moving into Friday we bring down cooler conditions from the North, but all in all its looks to be a rather decent weekend at this stage.

Post 10 day doesn't look good, I agree. It's certainly a million miles away from the Exeter update... The control run looks good.. Yes it's not really backed up by the mean, but it certainly doesn't put us slap bang in the middle of low pressure which I think the op is overplaying a tad... Anybody would think it was winter with its bully dartboard lows The mean is less severe with its low pressure than the op.

With a direct feed from the South that would be a more likely scenario. Obviously an onshore North Sea breeze will reduce temps towards the coast... Any plumes moving forward would result in higher temperatures anyway, with surrounding sea temps warming... The situation I illustrated with the 6z shows potentially high 20s... Obviously subject to change at this range, and as you will be aware, both man and machine had a right game at nailing the previous predicted maximums.

Interesting evolution from the 6z by mid next week... Low pressure to the West of us helping to pump up some very warm conditions, how long before a breakdown though!! Temps surely high 20s perhaps 30c if this scenario plays out.

Yes Damien, I think it's now 15 or so days with no sun spots.. Meaning a distinct lack of sun spot activity for over 50%of days so far this year. And I think by 2020 the main star would be heading into solar minimum. Just to think from 1645 to 1715 sunspots we're extremely rare, and we all no what the resultant outcome was then. This kind of a set up could lead to a 1 maybe 2 degree drop in global temperatures... Doesn't seem a lot but this could come with devastating consequences. Is this the reason for our episode of HLB in May and early June!! It's possible, the jet stream is certainly meandering, I no its summer and I'm still hoping for some more decent wether yet, but this coming winter could prove to be very interesting, if these episodes of HLB keep intensifying then boom, we could be staring down the barrel of one hell of a cold snap. Apperantly a weather metric that tells us how the top of earths atmosphere is responding to solar activity, is telling us that it's roughly 10 times cooler than it was during the record setting solar max of 1957/58..And that source is from the space agency NASA. I hope it doesn't kill our summer just yet, but boy it would be fun if it brought the winter some of us crave.... 1947.....anyone....

I'm not to concerned Northwest, we still have exeter only talking about possibly more unsettled in the last week of July, and even then it seems to be the NW of the uk that gets the worst deal. Look at some of the forecasts going back before the awfull June period, how many was talking of HLB and dire June conditions a few weeks before the event!! I'm still favouring a backloaded summer, regardless of what the NAO maybe indicating currently. To have this same set up within a month of each other wouldnt be unlucky.... It would be a miracle.... I'm not having any of it.

Ecm mean folks.... Its still decent away from the N/NE. obviously better the further SW you are... I've certainly seen worse.

Hey Karl.... ECM must be in meltdown mode, the mean has still not started rolling... Its had enough... Packed its bags... Will be posting it as soon has its updated mate, unless you beat me to it.

Don has a good point, temperatures are all over the place, records falling in winter for unseasonable warmth... Correct me if I'm wrong but 2018 was an historical summer, the first 3 weeks of June have been poor, but all I'm hearing is how bad this summer is... To my knowledge there are 8 weeks to go yet. And also temps of 23-26c are very decent for any part of the U.k. Especially as during sunnier moments we could ad several degrees to those figures.

I'm non the wiser from viewing ECM... its a complete pigs dinner of a chart, neither are we being dominated by high or low pressure... The boys that can't be named still paint a good outlook, so I'm inclined to side with them at this stage.... Personally I'm expecting a better mean once again with the op being somewhat of an outlier. I'm certainly not seeing a scenario of 9c below average, most definitely not away from the far North.

Interesting Scenario from the GEM going into next week, notice how devoloping low pressure to our SW starts to pump up some very warm conditions... Onto something... Or not.. Could be worth watching.

A very positive Jma 0z run, pretty much ties in with exeters thoughts of largely warm settled Conditions away from the NW moving into the middle of July. Not bad at all.

Yeh but we can't write of summers based on a gfs 6z operational... Much more data needs to ba analysed before that conclusion can be made.... Anyway the mean was better than the op... But I have a feeling in me water that just a couple of more dodgy op runs, and a few on here will indeed begin to write off the next 8 weeks.

Far to much gloom again, some folk must have got out of the wrong side of bed this morning. I pointed out the ECM mean was better than the op last night, and I stand by it this morning, the mean is again an improvement.. The Scandi trough is further East. The N/NE may get some cooler and perhaps more unsettled conditions, away from these areas it looks largely fine... Absolutely no point in looking for any kind of guidelines at 14 days out on a GFS op....

Well that's just so pessimistic... Your talking like the link up with the Greenland high is a done deal at over 7 days away!! And to say we could end with a similar scenario to early June beggars belief...

Not as this is the place for it, but they are again at complete loggerheads with Exeter who predict settled conditions out to mid month. There must be some kind of competition between them, because I for one just can't work it out... I thought the mean was better than the op... Small corrections could make a huge difference... Far to early to be saying the trough will win out with high pressure remaining to far West... The ens prove my point, the op was far to severe with a pressure fall.

Then it loses the plot and becomes a car crash at day 9...hopefully the emergency services are quick on the scene to clean that green snot up.... Over to you Mr Mean.

I'm not overly concerned by it Karl, the GFS tends to be the first to pick up on a pattern change idea, but also becomes the first to drop the idea... I think we are looking good into the middle of the month... I think the scandi trough idea will be modelled further East in due course, I'm expecting high pressure to devop more strongly from the SW.... how do I no all of this.... I've got my contacts mate.....

Should we be overly concerned with icon Karl, GFS UKMO look good... ECM to come, if all those 3 looking good together, icon ain't gonna P on my parade....

UKMO as danm just pointed out looking very nice... Heat building towards the S/SW later as well.... Lovely jubiley