MATTWOLVES 3

Its puzzling for sure matt, somethings got to give here... Maybe another day or 2 before we know for sure. We could most definitely have some areas towards the East Coast struggling in the mid teens, where to shelter of high ground further West perhaps some really high maximums... More twists and turns I feel though yet.

Your literally bang on there damian... July 18-20th..2016....33.5c was recorded in Oxfordshire, and 33.9c at Jersey Airport. If we can get a favourable build of pressure like the ECM is showing I will be happy, if we could get an extensive build of it we could gradually build our own heat... A set up like this will always outlast these plumes... Even though I feel they are more likely to become more frequent in time.

Serious heat from the Icon, it maybe only brief but my god it packs a punch. June record at risk if this falls favourably...

Tonight's mean shows the op was on the warmer side of preceedings, the pressure charts shows the rise quite well... Like last night really... Here are the comparisons...

We are highly honoured... We have had Steve M, catacol, tight isobar, nick Sussex..... And now the Feb posting in the summer thread... Welcome back sir....

I can safely say the plume has been talked to death by now folks... So i will instead concentrate on tonight's ECM mean.... And you know what it's not plumetastic..... Its highpressurelicious....

Matty, if we keep getting serious builds of heat across the continent during the summer months, this scenario is likely to become much more frequent than some believe!

That's more like it from the Navgem, the 2m temps are better, and wow... Just take a look at the temps across the water in France! Let's just pull in a slight S/SEtly... Totally merveilleux!!!

Ecm out to day 5...the heat is on... Just where and how intense is open to debate.... 30-35c surely...

The GEM also on schedule for some seriously warm uppers later this week... Note that yet again we are only seeing mid 20s on the 2m temps... If you were to tell someone that temps at 1500m are 20c and at ground level we have 24c,they would think you were insane!

And I think QS that is a fair reflection.... If these 30+c temps come off, we are gonna be doubting those 2m temperature predictions from the models for many years to come. Has it stands I don't think they will manually alter to much of the data they are receiving, and this could hold true of 2m temps.... I may be wrong on this... I'm not 100%

Boom there it is... Just a favourable roll of the dice with wind direction and clear sky's and 30c will surely be breached. It may becoming to an end on Sunday... But for me this is merely only round 1....stay tuned for more on the plumegate scandal rocking the nation

Nice icon still not sure about those mid 20c temperature predictions though! If we end up with NE/Estly airflow then yes temps will be suppressed towards Eastern areas. My guess here is its going to be sheltered Western areas, into the SW.. Perhaps the Midlands that could well be experiencing 30+c....i think I said on Sunday, it could be midweek before we nail this.... Well it could be Thursday before we are certain... Still alot to play for.

That's a brave call MWB.... 50 years!!! On top of last summers record breaking spell, we have a year later potential record breaking uppers! I would say it's safe to say these situations will becoming along much more frequently, rather than every few decades! Fascinating model watching all the same chaps... I do point out over analysis, because it can leave you feeling a little bemused and confused at times.... Great stuff all the same.

Fine lines QS regarding analyse and over analysing....

A look at the lesser models so to speak regarding this heat up, shall I dare say! I would say we are still looking good for a low to mid 30s come the end of the week, start of the weekend in a few favoured spots. Just out of interest I'm noticing parts of East Anglia are already around 26c...just across the water in Amsterdam we have around 30c and blue sky's! This heat up may suprise a few of the ones calling for low to mid 20s at best!

Day 5 on the legacy, and I've just created a new word.... Plumealicious...

The thundery rain moving up from the continent is importing some very warm and humid air tomorrow Karl.. That's why I say if the sun gets out for any length of time tomorrow, just watch those temps shoot up...

I'm not seeing a downgrade whatsoever, all I can see is some of the models struggling with wind flow direction and cloud cover amounts. Like I've stated many times today, if we get some good sunny breaks temps will sky rocket.. Tomorrow being an example, any decent sunny spells, and we could be looking at 25-28c.

Fantastic ICON rightly pointed out by Mike.... Just look how far North we have sent the uppers.... 2m temps of 24c...maybe if largely cloudy.... Plenty of blue sky's... Then chuck another 10 degrees on.. Week of interest coming up for sure.... And I tell you what folks it makes a bloody change of having to keep talking about HLB.... 10c and rain.... Yak... Something much more summer like is on the horizon now.... They say the trains not coming, till you can see the train... Well let's just say I can see the steam in the not to distant background.... Enjoy folks.

You say upgrades... But tomorrows expected highs in sunny spells in East Anglia is up to 28c...the air coming in even tomorrow is significantly warmer.. Expect some really decent maximums come later next week.

Most definitely tight.... The trend is our friend... Good to see you posting again.

The operational went rather chilly towards the end of the run.. Fortunately the mean remained a tad higher... Pressure wise though we are looking pretty good.... I would say 1020 to 1025 average... I'm sure that mean will begin to rise if we can get the Azores high to flex its muscles.

For sure there is some rainfall for early in the week... But beyond midweek it will be temperatures and sunshine that will be making most of the headlines! And the major headache is gonna be in predicting just how high we can get these temps..... Its all good.... No HLB for a while I'm afraid....

Ecm leads the way again... Firstly we have our own little plume... Then secondly we finishing with the Azores ridge primed to take hold... And it's been showing this for the last several days now... So it's most definitely not a flash in the pan..... GFS.... get your house in order.... Even though you have had millions thrown at you.... Your still the weakest link.....goodbye...