MATTWOLVES 3

Pretty good 12z...plenty of warmth, perhaps even some thundery activity to boot with a slack pressure flow over us.... Much more like summer if you ask me.

Even the Navgem setting up another potential plume opportunity by next weekend!! Lots of very decent weather around in the coming week.... Do we deserve it?? I think we do perhaps the mods thinking about setting up another guess the temperatures for next weekend!...

Well even if it does we can't complain.... 34c yesterday...

Positive 6z out to day 7..its looking like a good week especially Tuesday onwards, and once again we see temps climbing into high 20s later.. Risk of some thundery conditions to the SW next weekend! Long way off though, so I'm inclined to say good week of conditions coming up for true summer lovers. Edit... Just as our weather improves... Central and western Europe becomes much cooler. Hahah... Have some of the crap we endured for 3 weeks...

ECM mean folks... Steady has she goes... That's my shift done for the day... Enjoy your evening folks... Barbecue and a beer sounds like a plan...

Not a bad ECM overall, the pressure pattern looks a bit slack in the latter stages but temperatures overall remain in the warm sometimes very warm category...

I'm not to concerned by that Karl.. Firstly to far out, and the uncertainty significantly increases by this point... Either way you look at it July is going to be nothing like the first few weeks of June.

Potential high 20s perhaps a 30c by end of next week going on UKMO though, I would say that's pretty dam hot Pete...

It can be very beneficial namely helping to import very warm air from the south. They are most frequent with instances of low circulation index. You can have a cut off low with a cut off high, this more likely in a blocking type of situation. They are slow moving low pressure systems which can bring unsettled conditions and storms in the summer months, so I would say the key is where the cut off low resides!

Lovely scenario from UKMO out to day 6...notice low pressure just west of Spain.... Plume no2 anyone... Or have you not got over this one yet...

Slowly but surely we are cutting off that Ntly... 6z icon showing the improving picture. One mention on this heat plume... What have we learned in the build up to it!??? Not alot it seems!!! Record breaking uppers could have easily brought 40c+ in places.... On the other hand the 2m temperature forecasts from the models just a couple of days ago showing 24-25c maximimuns have also failed in quite a big way... Some places potentially being 10c higher than that prediction!!! What does this tell us.... Trust not man.... Or machine in these circumstances!

What I'm seeing NWS is for lots of settled Conditions away from the North... Scotland and N Ireland being prone to showers and cooler conditions, and perhaps at times towards NE/E areas. It looks very promising S/SW of those locations. The uncertainty seems to grow behind mid month with very warm settled conditions either continuing or a displaced high bringing unsettled conditions.... So they tell me to far off to worry about though peeps

UKMO.. ECM.... GFS....GEM at day 6... Looking good for a build of high pressure... New month, new trend.... Hopefully.

Bloomin hell guys the weather has been fantastic the last couple of days and another hot one tomorrow! I can understand all the moaning in early June with the diabolical conditions we had then, but not now surely!! The outlook looks decent with sure to be further hot spells moving forward, and tbh raving about temps in excess of 40c can be extremely dangerous to a good many folks health.... Its not the be all and and end all... If the climatological experts are correct we will be seeing many more spells of potentially dangerous heat devoloping down the line, and trust me it will cause alot of problems. Give me a repeat of last year any day... Very warm and sunny, but never really to the extreme heat wise, and never very humid also.... The tropics can keep the 40+c heat....

Here is the Ecm mean... Not bad at all.. The ensembles clearly show the op being somewhat of an outlier regarding the pressure pattern.

Not a bad ECM especially further South... And at times it could be very warm with perhaps a bit of continental influence... Perhaps finally summer has now arrived more widely!! Lovely jubiley

Tbh Mike its irrelevant the sun will fry you whether it's 28 or 35c... I'm testiment to that fact today....

Just watch that cold pool get modelled further and further East with each run... That cold pool is more than welcome to make a return come Dec 1st though.

And by day 6 we have perhaps the first sign of warmth building again... Plume no2 anyone!!! Suite you sir, suits me sir!!

UKMO charts out to day 6 How's that for a slice of fried gold.... Yehhhhh Boyyyyyyyyyyy!! Perfick Edit just noticed danm posted them as well.

Not a bad icon it has to be said. There is I feel a brief flirt with a Ntly, but this is far from certain.. I feel high pressure again having the momentum further ahead..

Lovely plume of uppers from icon 6z...its now a waiting game for just what maximums can be achieved tomorrow. Fantastic update from exeter as well into mid July... Big turnaround....

You've not posted our trusted friend CFS for a while karl looking promising out towards mid month... What a model...

Yeh good point NWS, its very much still an evolving situation. One thing of note at this stage is..... We would be very unlucky to return to a scenario of early June! For me this likelihood is receding bit by bit.

Our worse winter nightmare all over again pete....the big bad Nthly being shunted East or completely vanishing as we move nearer the time!