MATTWOLVES 3

Yes Pete, there is also alot of uncertainty with the boys from the SW. settled conditions, unsettled conditions, the duration of these spells seems very spasmodic to coin a phrase from Tamara. Slack pressure flow would entail some long warm sunny spells, but where showers occur, there would be scope for some lengthy downpours. And as is always the case, some places getting drenched, while other spots wondering what all the fuss is about! I'm not seeing major heights building over Greenland or major heights over Western Russia devoloping like early June, leading to troughs becoming boxed in over the UK for many days on end. I'm also still not seeing and overly enthusiastic Atlantic pushing bands of relentless rain through on a conveyor belt type scenario. Just about anything could happen at this stage.

It doesn't look to bad to me, I'm not taking to much notice of solely op runs... Away from the NW we have plenty of settled Conditions in the 10 day period. We can clearly see the dip in pressure around the 12th of the month, things then do again improve a tad. I've seen worse... I've seen better... Just depends on whether your happy with the bit in the middle... Personally I feel we are shaping up for a special August!! Just my 2 penneth!

Yes, plenty of opportunity for some more extreme heat. August hopefully this time around will deliver something out of the ordinary!! ECM mean showing that gradual decrease in pressure by day 10,but the op was a bit more stringent with it than the mean!

A look at the mean suggests plenty of fine weather on offer, especially away from the NW.. Still quite a slack flow at times which obviously indicates no domineering set up.. Overall I think its not a bad effort. Still plenty of scope for improvement, but it could be so much worse.

A similar situation to what we just received 2 weeks down the line would bring more extreme heat. SSTs would be increasing and with the ground drying it would aid the situation even more so... Other than that, a scenario like the chart I have posted would also raise a few eyebrows.

UKMO out to day 6 showing a build of pressure from the SW.. looks like a very decent weekend is about to set up.

Cracking ending from the Icon 12z, temperature on the up as well..

You took the words right out my mouth Karl... A very similar ECM mean to yesterday.. Still the op and the mean showing little difference with both temperatures and pressure... Not all bad at all.

Can't complain with the ECM mean folks... Looks a good un!! Time for a Barby and beer me thinks... Have a great evening good peeps..

Its not bad Karl, it still looks a bit slack for most of the time, one thing for sure its a marked improvement on a few weeks ago... Let's see what the mean says.

Pick one Karl... It has to be settled, or unsettled.. A big difference from both models again.. Which one is your money on mate?

The GFS legacy looks so much better than the new one... High pressure is much more dominating and keeps low pressure to the NW. Where as the new one puts it over us... Once again this model as issues, when the 2 versions are completely at loggerheads with one another.

Has singularity pointed out so well, not alot driving our weather in the coming days... We have quite a slack pressure flow this would entail the weather stays rather benign for most of the time, perhaps some showers around mid week period. But I'm seeing signs from the Icon 12z that pressure is slowly but surely Increasing again by the end of next week, and more importantly next weekend... At this stage we should also start to see a temperature increase... Not all bad tbh.

Can't complain about the ECM mean again, if anything a slight improvement in temperatures moving forward... Looking good to day 10.

Perhaps you should take a closer look at the ECM and the mean!!

Not so sure about plume, but if you like warm and settled conditions you will be happy with the ECM mean

I don't think anyone can complain about this ECM tonight... I think it's a beaut!!!! Yes yes and a big fat yes...

Icon bringing a good deal of settled Conditions, especially at first, low pressure to the North could bring a blip by next Wednesday/Thursday. High pressure should start to influence things again by the end of the week into next weekend... The far NW however could remain more troubled with more unsettled conditions at times... Perhaps a N/S split starting to shape up as we go further ahead.

Good summary again from MWB, looking at the ECM mean and ensembles, yet again we have them neck and neck in the race to settled conditions pretty unusual to see the mean and op on exactly the same page. Pressure looks good as well. No complaints from me, but do you ever hear me complain!

How often do we see the op and the mean tied together with the temperatures!! The ensembles clearly show the mid week blip with pressure falling... But note the operational was a little extreme with it!! Either way the mean and the op clearly recovering pressure later next week.

Another good mean from ECM... we just can't grumble.... July shaping up to be so much better than June. Edit... We posted at the same time Karl, regarding the mean

Ecm shows a blip around midweek, before high pressure strengthens again by later next week, pretty much ties in with the Exeter update as well.. All good

I said high pressure looks like becoming more dominant towards the end of the run... If you don't like that, how about ukmo, or is that not to your taste as well.

Not a bad icon... High pressure looking to strengthen from the SW towards the end of next week.

Literally all the models I've viewed so far today out to next week show low pressure to our W/NW, with the bulk of the U.k under a ridge of high pressure, so things looking very nice away from the far NW of the country. Its looks to me that high pressure to our SW is gonna be a dominant feature over the next 2 weeks, bar a blip this weekend with cooler conditions and some patchy rain on Saturday, things on the up from Sunday onwards... Not bad at all folks.