Bradley in Kent

Good morning all, Following other comments I'd also take the current conditions in Southern England at the moment. Yes no snow potential, but dry with some frosts here and there is seasonal enough and many, many times better than mild wet dross. Hopefully the rest of January will continue the anticyclonic theme such as 2006 or 2017. As also mentioned Winter isn't over yet by any stretch. I am the type who prefers colder weather earlier on in the season as the weaker sun doesn't melt everything as quickly, but I wouldn't say no to snow any time of year. If we have a quiet winter with no snow transitioning to a mild bright spring, then so be it. Summer IMO is the true season to be jolly!

Some very interesting and insightful comments regarding the current setup which I'd like to add on to. If we are ever to get in the game for any decent cold, we need high pressure in our vicinity and not down in the Med or Azores. Most of the time, these heights end up slipping back south again, but sometimes they don't and end up going to where coldies want it. The position we're in at the moment is high pressure right over us with low heights to the north and Russia. This weekend is important coming up, as a low spins up behind our current high pressure with another high behind it. This low is currently modelled to be a weaker feature but we're yet to see the exact strength. Current runs are suggesting this low will effectively get sandwiched and squeezed between the two high pressures. These themselves are boxed in by low heights in North America to the west and Russia to the east. The main question comes on Sunday, as to what happens when this low gets squeezed. Will it get squeezed and pinched out southwards allowing heights to slip of the top of it and link with heights over Central Europe where they can then retrograde Northwestwards? Or will the low be squeezed out of the sandwich to the north, which will bolster heights further south whilst at the same time allowing low pressure systems to barrel over the top and hence end up at square one again. It all comes down to timing, we might be lucky and have heights retrograde just as there is a lull in cyclogenesis off North America. Or we might not, and low pressure just comes barging across the Atlantic pushing aside any heights back down to the south because they didn't have the chance to build a wall south of Greenland.

Good morning all, Yes as is always the case with nature nothing is guaranteed even if circumstances on paper look favourable as this winter so far has shown. So it looks like pressure will be building towards the UK but I dare say it'll be a gloomy one again as we'll be importing a load of muck as it builds from the SW. I don't think I have ever seen this level of agreement in the ensembles up to 10 (for London). Obviously a mobile transition to HP is easy for the models and forecasters!

This temperature contrast will certainly give the models something to work with in the next couple of days. (chart is current 850s by the way)

...it happens every year like a rubbish football team: will it be our year? Will we do well this season? We start off in hope where some models hint at a cold spell. It doesn't happen and by NYE we're already bottom of the table. By mid-season the hope has dried up and we're now in bumbling zombie mode. Towards the end of the season (February or March) we'll win a handful of games (or in weather terms some sun and snow) but it's too late and doesn't save the season! It ends with little to shout about 'oh well, onto next year' and the process repeats!

Good morning all, With regards to warm Autumn and impact on following Winter, it seems that the stats are skewed by Climate Change. Northern / Scandi blocking isn't happening as much now in Winter and if so for only short periods thanks for more poleward energy from the tropics. It's just more likely when looking at a mild Winter, it has probably occurred post 1987 and hence occured in a warm background meaning the preceeding Autumn was also probably warm. All seasons, but especially Autumn and Winter, are mostly running above pre 90s average. Conversely, a cold Winter probably occurred during a generally colder than average year including Autumn. Regarding now, I'm just going with the flow but looking forward to Spring. Winter in this country is a poxy season so have to make do with what we've got. I'll take zonal if it means nice clean air with good sunrises and sunsets. And, Spring wildlife prefers milder conditions so long as they stay mild through early Spring.

On the bright side (literally) today is the latest sunrise meaning from tomorrow we'll start the ascent to more daylight. I think Jan and Feb will be a write off (hope I'm wrong) but late Feb / early March that sun gets warm and days really draw out. Can't wait!

Yeah I'm looking forward to Spring. I'm done with Winter now... Last night however, felt like Summer ignoring the darkness; temps around 14c all night with DPs between 11c and 13c. We had a fantastic dusk with altostratus being lit up, but the cleaner sky did allow temps to fall to 12c for a couple of hours before going back up to 14c. I don't know exactly what the high minimum record is. We'll see!

For my review I'll jump into a monthly breakdown before giving my overall thoughts. Like many, my idea of 'good' is essentially continental with just enough rain to keep the plants happy. So without further ado I'll rate the months from 'terrible', 'very poor', 'poor', 'okay', 'good', 'very good', 'excellent': JANUARY - terrible A very dull and wet month which was cold but not cold enough to snow. Missed out on all snow events marred by numerous busts. In fact it was the worst month for weather in my memory! FEBRUARY - very good. A decent 8 day cold spell with good snow cover helped by North Sea showers in the first half. Then we had very mild weather towards to end. MARCH - okay Near average on all parameters with a couple of warm days at the end. APRIL - good A very sunny month but temperatures did struggle and there was a nagging breeze at times which dragged cloud in on some days. MAY - poor Quite a cool, wet and dull month. Convective showers are interesting but do get on your nerves after a while. JUNE - okay A good first half (sunny and dry) but poor second half (cool, damp and cloudy). The two halves end up cancelling eachother out. JULY - good Just about made it to 'good' thanks to good storm activity and warm spell in the middle. Rest of the month was uninspiring not helped by rest of NH experiencing a hot summer; UK under one blob of green snot as it were... AUGUST - very poor. The only parameter which wasn't terrible was rainfall. Just grey, cool and windy most of the time. Felt like winter. SEPTEMBER - very good. Well when the kids went back we knew what was going to happen and it did! Lots of usable weather with nice evenings. If August and September were swapped nobody would've suspected anything. OCTOBER - okay This is a hard month to rate as it's normally an uninteresting time of year. Times of rain and cloud with some warm sunshine. NOVEMBER - good. Easy to say when you had 24/7 electricity which couldn't be said for all. Here it was reasonably sunny with a few frosts and not too much rain. Also had a smattering of snow towards the end which could be it for this winter. It certainly exceeded expectations! DECEMBER - very poor. Taking into account the forecast, it was / is a dull, damp and mild month characterised, like other periods this year, with cloudy high pressure. Had a few cold days to begin with but weather has got less inspiring as the month progressed. So, overall, 2021 comes in as 'okay'; haha, after all that typing... Here in Kent we've enjoyed good years since 2016 with warm summers. 2020 especially (barring winter) was a fantastic year meaning this year had a job to compete. I do know the North and West of the British Isles had a much better 2021 with cold winter weather and warmer summer weather which youse up there definitely deserve after some very drab Atlanticy years. Fingers crossed 2022 brings some good weather for all of us . I'd like a bit more sun this time please!

Potentially was was apparently the case in Jan 1987 and Feb 1991. However I wouldn't bank on it as that is quite a temperature gradient and would liven up the jetstream like in 2013/14 for instance.

Looking at the forecast and historic stats, I can see this December coming in as a top 10, perhaps top 5.

I'm conscious that this isn't the CC thread; but I suppose the complete fall-through from last week with a very mild forecast is prompting such reactions. I'll say the days of trop only cold spells (>1 week) are over because too much energy is preventing height builds to the North or East. I mean, look at what's been happening since November! However SSWs will continue meaning BTFE style events will still happen even in 2050 perhaps 2100. But whilst the strat is intact, prepare for more tropical maritime conditions!

Well, we might as well break a record if we can't have cold! I'm not so good with understanding tropical maritime conditions and what affects temperature this time of year. I'll take a guess of dry, slight breeze but thick cloud?

Hello all and Merry Christmas To follow some post-mortem analysis of the cold spell that never was, I'll attach a set of diverging ensembles from 10 days ago posted by @met4cast which summed up where we were. I also made the point on how in winter it's best to go by the top 3 mild options as they are the most likely outcomes. Basically the 21st was the fork in the path where this time (like most times) it ended up mild; in fact, there's a chance that the actual outcome will be even warmer than the warmest member! Oh well, I've the mindset of 'if it can't be cold it might as well be warm'...

Give me a February 2019, March 2012, April 2011 and May 2020 please!

A very disappointing feel to the weather at the moment; there are often goose chases but this one feels especially frustrating. I think it's because it's over Christmas which always has more emotion attached, but also the way it has fallen through spectacularly with poor model performance. It really has felt like a lost opportunity for this winter and the last chance of an early winter trop-led legendary cold spell for many years if not forever. It might sound melodramatic but hear me out... In the short term, a strong La Nina is kicking in increasing the chances of a mild second half of Winter. Yes, we might see an SSW but February and March aren't the same for cold. In the longer term, going towards 2023, we'll be entering a period of stronger solar activity and the next El Nino sometime in the mid-2020s. Greenhouse Gas levels are climbing and there's a lag with warming so the background warmth will re-accelerate big time this decade after the slow-down we're having at the moment. Next time we're in such position which'll be at least 10 years away (weak La Nina, low solar cycle, etc.), there'll be too much poleward energy in the trop to allow HP to build where coldies want it, not to mention an atmosphere saturated with C02 and the like. Don't get me wrong, it will snow again of course it will! But it really feels like time is up when it comes to extended cold spells in December, and the set up we had a week ago was the last chance before climate change enters its next phase! (2010 will likely be the last hurrah unless a big volcano erupts of course). Winter has always been a tedious season in this part of the world (early 2000s come to mind), but at least the other three seasons will generally get better as time goes by. Lose a bit win more eh?!

Good morning all, It just goes to show the rollercoaster it has been but on this occasion it didn't lead to anything special. All the run waiting, isobar following, ups and downs; all that for a couple of frosts and some snow showers in the North! Yes, because of Christmas I did get sucked in but there we go, it happens... In the New Year it looks like we'll quickly return to an Atlantic regime and La Nina will be also kicking in now it's getting stronger. Of course, it'll be stupid to write winter off at this stage as anything can happen such as an SSW, but nothing special for the foreseeable. So with that, I'll take to positives for this chase and now focus on enjoying Christmas for what it is! At the end of the day, it's not about the weather really especially once you're on you're 10th drink and slumbering through a haze. Thank you to all readers and posters sharing knowledge with the fun reactions the forums on NetWeather bring Until the next chase, Merry Christmas!

My take on all this is that it's rare for airmasses to have a head-on (or near head on) collision anytime let alone December. Normally airmasses have a more side-on or only-one-moving, lowering the probability range when calculating the 'location of impact' so to speak. The less head-on (say from 10o to 90o trajectories) it's easier to calculate. When it's more head-on (nearer to 180o trajectories) the travelling speeds matter more when calculating said location of impact which is why models are still up in the air even at this range. Then you've got all the other stuff going on as well. Of course from tomorrow these ranges are going to contract and hopefully by Thursday we'll have a good idea where we sit and where this location of impact will be. Then it'll be down to 850s and DPs wherever this band of precipitation ends up. I think it's the uncertainty combined with Christmas driving lots of people, on here and elsewhere, mad! A shame really that heights are too high to the south and not high enough further north, that little annoying Norwegian Problem really has ruined it by slowing up the cold air from Scandi!

It really is amazing how something such as light can affect us to such degree. It's also amazing how different we can react as I am the opposite to you. I seem to find in Summer I sleep less but feel more awake and have more energy in the day. In Winter, it's reversed, I sleep a lot more but feel groggy in the day then just want to go to bed again when it gets dark. I for one do not feel alert and healthy this time of year, although I do try! Us humans are silly, most other mammals move off somewhere else when they don't like the conditions, Summer or Winter, or just go to bed for a few months!

...and to add onto your post, the seasons are divided up into the three whole months because it's easier to manage and compare stats when dealing with whole months rather than 2/3s and 1/3s. Also some years the solstices and equinoxes shift a day before or after, so would be statistical mess when seasons are different lengths on different years. However, in reality, the astronomical seasons do fit in better as there's normally a 3 week lag from sun strength to average temperature; the first half of March is way more wintry than the first half of December. This does mean of course there's a long way to go, but December is good for cold as the sun is weak and less prone to destroying snow cover! I know this is the model thread and not the 'changing daylight hours thread' (which is a good read), but I wanted to add further explanation. Sorry moderators!

Evening all, last night I threw my towel in and won't be picking it up. Two positives though (or 1.5); this chase has certainly brought some lessons and good experience to learn from. And another positive (depending on your personal circumstances) it's Christmas this week

Yes it looks like no cold spell for the South but I will be pleased to see this high pressure go; very, very gloomy! Early winter really is a horrible time of year in NW Europe where only a small selection of synoptics delivers bright weather. Still, in a months time the days will start to get noticeably lighter then the February warmth in the sun will return! My, I am looking forward to Spring!

It was always looking risky and yesterday I said if wheels do come off they'll all come off at once. I said that with hope things stay colder in the outputs, but sadly today they haven't and those wheels have all come out of their housings. Tomorrow will be that period where we're still moving but without wheels before coming to a stop with all ensembles out of snow territory for the rest of the year. I can't see a way back unfortunately! So, with this cold chase over, I wish other readers and posters a Happy Christmas! I suppose more northern members could get some breif cold but weather aside I hope all have a safe and enjoyable few days.

In scenarios like now following models actually helps as my family are all looking forward to a White Christmas they read in the press. I've told everyone it'll rain and not to plan around snow. I'd rather know now rather than pointlessly look forward to it! Hey ho, cold spell potential over south of the border, but still time for the rest of Winter

There's a good 20c scatter which says to me that considering conditions past day 5 is a waste of time and energy. It's all high risk at the moment and one small disturbance in the wrong place will see the whole thing dissappear in a puff of smoke (or mild tropical maritime cloud!)