Raindrops

Dew points look great to be honest, I favour those before anything else. Hold up....next post

Hmm Mesoscale Discussion 785

Yeah, I have done the same last week, came online to see all hell broke loose.

UPDATED! Chance of Tornadoes dropped by 5% May 13, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC AC 131615 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Sat May 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a few tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be possible today from Iowa into central Illinois. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across southern Oklahoma and East Texas as well as the eastern Virginia/North Carolina border vicinity. ...IA into the Mid MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low about 30 miles northwest of OFK in far northeast NE. A cold front extends southward from this low through central KS and then back southwestward from north-central trough southwest OK. Surface pattern east of the low is a bit more complex, with a warm front extending from the low southeastward across southwest IA and into north-central MO. This warm front intersects a residual stationary boundary near DSM, with this stationary boundary continuing eastward across the OH Valley. The surface low is forecast to make modest eastward progress throughout the day, with the warm front continuing to move northward as well. However, the presence of the stationary boundary may impeded the northern progression of the warm front somewhat. Expectation is a corridor or mid to upper 60s dewpoints to extend from east-central MO/southern IL northwestward through central IA. This corridor will likely be south of the warm front, but east of dryline-like boundary that is expected to mix eastward with time. Moderate buoyancy is anticipated within this corridor as well, contributing to likely thunderstorm development as the boundary moves eastward. Southeasterly surface winds will beneath modest westerlies will contribute to moderate deep-layer vertical shear and the potential for more organized storm structures capable of all severe hazards across IA. Strong low-level buoyancy (i.e. 0-3 km MLCAPE greater than 150 J/kg) and low-level vorticity throughout the corridor of southeasterly winds could increase what would otherwise be a low probability tornado risk given anticipated shear magnitudes. Farther south, surface winds will be weaker with a more outflow-dominant storm structure anticipated. Here, some clustering is also possible, with storms then forward-propagating into west-central IL. ...Central/Southern OK...Arklatex...East TX... Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon from central OK eastward into the Arklatex and East TX amid the tropical air mass in place. Vertical shear is weak, limiting storm organization and the overall severe potential. Even so, a few water-loaded downbursts and maybe even a tornado or two remain possible. This low-probability tornado threat appears maximized across southern OK, where greater low-level vorticity is expected. ...VA Tidewater...Northeast NC... An upper trough is rotating quickly southeastward into New England, with a cold front sagging southward across WV/VA. This boundary will move into a relatively moist airmass over southern VA this afternoon, resulting in thunderstorm development. Strengthening westerly flow aloft and relatively steep boundary-layer lapse rates may result in a few strong wind gusts in the more intense cells. Activity will move into northern NC this evening before weakening. ..Mosier/Moore.. 05/13/2023

Good to know, I thought detectors only picked up CG and not CC/IC, guess I better get up to date with the tech.

May 13, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC AC 131247 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sat May 13 202 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a few tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be possible today in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. ...IA/IL Vicinity... A weakening upper low is moving northward into southeast SD this morning, with the surface reflection of the low just north of Omaha. By mid afternoon, a surface occluded front will stretch from northwest-southeast IA and provide the focus for thunderstorm development. Backed near-surface winds along and north of the boundary, coupled with ample moisture and pockets of heating, will result in a corridor of favorable environment for organized multicell and occasional supercell storms. Isolated tornadoes may occur, along with large hail and gusty/damaging winds. The risk area is relatively narrow, given the limited area of moderate CAPE and potential for surface-based storms. ...TX/OK... Widespread thunderstorms overnight have overturned the unstable airmass that was present across much of OK and central/east TX. Given the relatively weak flow aloft and poor lapse rates, have left only a MRGL risk from southern OK into southeast TX. The strongest cells in this region may produce gusty winds or perhaps a tornado or two. ...VA/NC... An upper trough is rotating quickly southeastward into New England, with a cold front sagging southward across WV/VA. This boundary will move into a relatively moist airmass over southern VA by mid-afternoon, where most CAM solutions show scattered thunderstorms forming. Strengthening westerly flow aloft and relatively steep boundary-layer lapse rates may result in a few strong wind gusts in the more intense cells. Activity will move into northern NC this evening before weakening.

@37:07 what's going on there?

Is that a lightning detector I hear? Awesome video, thanks for sharing and putting your time and effort into it.

Correction Cyclonic

Watching Vin to, good ending to the day, nearly 14hrs and still going, insane. Here's to tomorrow...oh wait, it already is tomorrow

Look at the winds in the centre of the low pressure, notice how the cloud structures are moving in all directions, well I caught the same in Thursdays (11/5/23) storms over the UK/Ireland. petal_20230512_040321.mp4

Absolutely beautiful.

Barandon Ivey Live Storm Chasing LIVESTORMCHASING.COM Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand.

Moving south now Tornado HQ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... NORTH CENTRAL NOBLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 830 PM CDT. * AT 806 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TONKAWA, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...BROADCAST MEDIA CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TONKAWA. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 208 AND 215. Edit: Tornado warning now in Texas

May 13, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (update)

Tornado Watch 219

Not playing for me but I see it on fox , oh he's back, probably cut it to stream to fox

Mesoscale Discussion 779

I'm gonna need a bigger jar of coffee.

Thank you Take care, see you in the next chase where ever it may be, ha.

Nice squall line forming on the NW of the low pressure

From earlier. Massive Wedge Tornado On The Ground Near Spalding Nebraska

I think it might be becoming its own system, but don't quote me on that, ha.

NWS part statement One longer-lived supercell in particular over Dodge County, NE has shown recent intensification (near 70-kt VROT) and deep TDS (likely a strong to intense tornado). Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 778 WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

More tornado warnings, really kicking off now. Yes, it is intensifying as NWS stated, also yup that's a doughnut lol