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Mitch the motorbike storm

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Posts posted by Mitch the motorbike storm

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Ndc Ozzie said:

    TORRO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2019/002

    A TORRO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued at 23:45BST on Monday 24th June 2019

    Valid from/until: 23:45 - 10:00BST on Monday 24th/Tuesday 25th June 2019 for the following regions of the United Kingdom:

    SE England

    E Anglia

    Parts of the E Mids, Lincs, and the east of Central Southern England

    THREATS

    Hail to 20-30mm diameter; wind gusts to 55mph; frequent lightning; local flash flooding.

    SYNOPSIS

    An upper short-wave trough is approaching southern Britain. Atop a cooling boundary layer, strong theta-w advection is occurring from the south-east as the 850 hPa flow backs into the south-east and increases, due to the approaching upper trough. Lift from the approaching upper trough is steepening mid-level lapse rates and inducing convective development from this elevated moisture plume across N France. Wind shear through the cloud-bearing layer will be conducive to rightwards-propagating MCS development (relative to the mean tropospheric flow), and cells within evolving mesoscale complexes may develop mid-level rotation. Any such cell will bring the risk of large hail to 20-30mm diameter, whilst any linear elements could promote strong wind gusts, although the elevated nature and moist boundary layer may limit this somewhat. The high moisture content of the plume will also allow for some intense rainfall rates, with an attendant threat of local flash flooding.

    To the west of this area, showers and perhaps one or two thunderstorms are also possible, especially across parts of the W Midlands and E Wales later in the night - which may also bring a flash-flood risk. Overall, this region has a lower risk of thunderstorms and hence severe weather - it is a non-zero risk, though, but a lack of organised activity due to the best instability being further east precludes issuing a watch, even though a local threat cannot be ruled out.

    Forecaster: RPK.

     

    Send a link to where you got this from please 

     

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

    Met Office update seems to match that of the 03z output below

    There are 2 areas of interest tonight I think,  the Bristol/East Wales/Shropshire area marked, and the IOW/Reading/London/SE area.

    Screenshot_15.thumb.jpg.c3c708e67cfb86f0a1d98413236c882a.jpg

     

    Could you explain the arrows surrounding the areas please, sorry i have not studied meteorology, couldnt stand other parts of geography for example human geography  

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    We're probably looking at the best chance of severe thunderstorms across the SE/EA than we've seen for a while.

    CAPE isn't all that extreme but it's there, thankfully the storms will be developing across N France in a much higher CAPE/LI environment, the CAPE over the SE will only serve to allow storms to continue tracking northwards across the region 

    4873812_MLCAPE.thumb.png.d57c1a9a196322cf274c7464faa1a231.png

    PWAT is moderately high so some areas have the potential to see A LOT of rainfall in a very short space of time, I think flooding could be a risk tonight more than anything else 

    PWAT.thumb.png.4f1c932da05a6bd64c5c4a85b82ad50f.png

    Fairly steep lapse rates, not significantly strong over the UK but decent, almost supercell territory across the channel 

    LAPSE.thumb.png.1a81943a39b8da9a25b0337bf2736cc0.png

    DLS is almost off the scale however! This should allow storms to remain organised, MCS very likely, supercell a low risk but a possibility given strong shear levels

    DLS.thumb.png.2a99d050ab6d43b8442e96d246bd7cad.png

     

    AROME.jpg

    With the last image, im at the very end of the south east and i dont see any of rainfall logged, is that not a sign to me missing the storms at my location?

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