[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

well on the metcheck thunderstorm development radar it seems that the storm is infact heading north east earlier than expected

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

Just now, Jed Bickerdike said:

Keep dreaming. All electrical activity has died from that and cloud looks more rugged on sat 24 like it's dieing 

i like to have hope ;-;

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

Just now, Gordon Webb said:

try keeping some straws back for later on

huh what do you mean? i dont understand that saying, sorry

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Have you got a link to that sat picture?

https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/thunderstorm_satellite.asp , sure do bud!

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

hm well my prediction about the storm away from the main MCS seems to be growing more confident... one of the clusters is still heading to the safe east, what do you all think..

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

Just now, Alderc said:

No chance......

I could head to broadstairs beach and watch it cross the channel, there is a tiny trance of the storm being close enough to see, very small chance that is

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

No, the steering flow will take it north and north east.

even if i can hear one rumble of thunder or see distant flashes from it id be happy haha

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

9 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

could be using the energy of the plume and trace along the same track as the plume, it was originally moving east but then as it got closer to the main MCS it started to turn west, i dont know, its a long shot but it may reach us,,, Only time will tell

does anyone else think the storm that i circled could head this way with enough strength from the main storm to pull it towards it>

 

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

Just now, Onding said:

It's barely moving that system! Just growing and growing

I can't see it tracking due north though. It'll have too much of an eastward movement in my opinion.

could be using the energy of the plume and trace along the same track as the plume, it was originally moving east but then as it got closer to the main MCS it started to turn west, i dont know, its a long shot but it may reach us,,, Only time will tell

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

Hmmm just been watching this, the circled area has interested me, anyone else?

id love to know your opinions on the system i have circled

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

Hmmm just been watching this, the circled area has interested me, anyone else?

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

Just now, LightningLover said:

I’m hoping we get something! I can’t be precise, given the circumstances, but I would say there is at least a chance of a nasty cell later tonight, perhaps spawned from the main cluster/MCS outflow boundary! Fingers crossed!  

I HOPE SO! I mean we are in the risk zone for isolated storms, if the storm is strong enough it could use energy from the main MCS causing it to be powerfull for us!, fingers crossed indeed!

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

could someone reply ;-;

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

i know this might be a stupid question, but do you think where i am will get a tiny bit of action, ill accept anything at this point haha

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

Just now, Azazel said:

UKV looking to shift things over to Ireland 

noooo i hope not ;-;

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

thankyou for that

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

also on further investigation i found this!

your thoughts?

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

I wouldn’t second guess the models at the moment. A few weeks ago you will recall there was an MCS modelled to run up S/C areas. Almost all models (if I remember correctly) even as little as 24 hours out had a similar idea, within 50-100 miles of each other. The (12z AROME) on the day itself said “don’t think so guv” and shifted it East into a Kent/Sussex event and was even at that short range on its own...it also turned out to be correct.

The BIG difference this time is that the swathe of instability is much broader than a few weeks ago so many more areas in with a shout - including poor me here in the southeast who up until now has not been expecting much if anything tomorrow. 

Lets all get just a little excited and hope it’s a widespread event

Could i have that in a less educated term haha, sorry im not that understand of what you said, but what did you mean by mentioning the southeast, will we get some of this storm?

 

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

Looking at the metcheck it seems that the east is the best place to be in the long term, your thoughts?

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

do anyone think ill get anything down here, maybe a little thunder?

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well I don't want to count any chickens this far in advance because the form for storms here is patchy at best. However, as things stand this looks to be more of a classic 90s destabilisation event, whereby the core of the plume destabilises on its western edge. The SE looks to be within the core of the plume at that point which ultimately means that the SE area remains dry at that point. 

Destabilisation looks to occur from SW England, running up through the Marches/west Midlands, NW England and then Scotland. However, there will likely be some fluctuations to this as we get closer to Tues night- hence I'm counting no chickens!

ah well sounds like a shame for me, however if the wind changes then could move easternly like most of them have done, i have faith that the storm system is rather wide, perhaps if the storm develops enough the whole southcoast could be covered at the same time if the storm has enough energy and size, but i still have not given up as its too early to assume where and when the storm will hit, thankyou for your input!

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

what do you think i would get where i live, anything?

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

i wouldnt mind that 

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

1 minute ago, Josh Rubio said:

Being located pretty much in the middle of the Midlands the storms always seem to bypass us to the East or West.

Though I’m hoping this will be a large cluster of storms, spread out over a large area, rather than a thin line of precipitation. 

A Thunderstorm wider than the UK yes please!

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

4 minutes ago, TomW said:

More than likely will end up further east than currently forecast as has been the case all summer so Id say your in a good spot!

I really hope so mate haha all the storms saturday night were really strong but only when they passed me they exploded into life when they got back into the ocean, ill be radar watching all week

WOW Im interested in the area by east anglia now, the risk for tornado is rather high there for now, but this could only be for a guess, but still, shows this storm has potential to be very potent, also with all the tornados in the UK in the past two days, i wouldnt doubt this prediction!