Beanz

Well winter has ended and without much in the way of snow or notable cold spells. Still we move on, there’s always next winter! Both ECM and GFS trending towards a dry and more settled outlook (ECM just a bit wet and stormy later on), if we can keep the low sitting just out of sight and let our friend Uncle Azores in a bit I think we’ll be good for Spring.

@IDOexplained in a much more eloquent manner than I did (thanks ). The downgrade I was referring to was from their (METO) forecast (on the app) which at around 6am this morning showed heavy snow for Thurs c.10am-midday IMBY (about 5 miles north of yours by the looks of it). By midday, and now referring to the app, website and video, it had downgraded to sleet IMBY and pretty much everywhere in the area I mentioned earlier. Either way, we can still keep fingers crossed for last min upgrades in real time!

I was referring to their video forecast, rather than the written not that it makes much difference. In essence it amounts to the same, the source input is the same just in a more colourful output.

I think thats exactly it unfortunately

18z HIRLAM is in line with what the METO were forecasting from about lunchtime today. They downgraded from heavy snow in the Notts - Peterborough - London - Oxford area to sleet and it remains as such.

Its certainly showing some interesting accum. I think I buy into the precip though.

In your last post...

Oxymoron forecast of the week ??

Which model is that? I'm guessing GEM as they are have a habit of massively overplaying snow accumulations.

Warnings are in place, but i'm still not convinced it will come to much, certainly not much in the way of snow, more likely sleet and cold rain. Its simply not going to be cold enough.

Wow you must be my neighbour! MetO have upgraded their forecast from yesterday too. Annoyingly I’m not at home tomorrow and have to travel south!

MetO is quite confident on the track of the low being south as their favoured model solution, straight through the channel. Not bringing much in the way of snow, more like rain. Saturday I would suggest is looking like a rain only event, no sign of anything white.

I don’t remember that event, was it noteworthy? EDIT: my photos remember...we got some snizzle by the looks of it. I remember driving back through the Cotswolds, a kind of slushy mix of rain and snow.

Well ECM doesn’t make much of Thursday’s feature at all now, and the developments over the weekend moving north on this run. I’m still expecting rain for much of this week by the look of it.

I think Mike is probably right, I’m not entirely sure what weight your guarantee holds but looking at what’s on offer in the models at the moment, it’s not worth much. I’m calling Thursday a ‘non-event’ - as much as I’d love it to be otherwise.

METO, for Thursday, north of London, South of Notts, below 200m ??

The forecast for later this week has moved away from sleet for the south, it’s now showing rain. I’m not surprised given where the dew points are.

What does that mean??

I fear all this is going to lead to is a cold wet period, not feeling particularly like winter. The JS is still very active and not that far away, the output of the models at the moment suggests to me a cold period but not much in the way of snow away from higher ground, particularly in the South.

Cold and wet, I can’t get too excited I’ll be honest...

I don’t think it’s been that bad, wet yes, but not that bad to work outside.

If you’re into your pattern matching, most Marches following a warm ENSO dominated winter have been dry and mild.

WIN - WIN - To be honest I'm ready for spring now, winter is done and any cold now is becoming less welcome at this point as we head into spring. There is a time and a place after all...

No snow ‘seen’, Monday hasn’t happened yet. I highly doubt this is correct looking at the temps.