Beanz
-
Posts
817 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by Beanz
-
Experience suggests that’s likely true
-
The GFS has been an underachiever for quite some time, it’s a swing model these days.
-
Point taken - public apology on my part ??
-
I think IDO has (and normally does) post very good balanced synopsis, often without bias. I don’t appreciate seeing other members being bashed on the forum because they are apparently ‘not a true coldie’ Your post was a good example of straw clutching and a huge bias to just one thing. I am a coldie myself, but ‘hunting’ for cold in the models when it just ain’t there makes one appear quite desperate and inexperienced.
-
Thanks MIA, have been enjoying your updates this winter, look forward to progress after Christmas. Enjoy the festivities ?? -
Because the weather agencies employ experienced meteorologists and forecasters. They know better than to rely on one model, one model run and what happens beyond 5 days. There was never agreement from the models for a cold Christmas at a sensible time frame. This forum is heavily biased towards cold/snow and therefore an accurate forecast cannot be gained from what you read here.
-
What period are you referring to??
-
Well this won’t be throwing any chilli(y) our way!
-
Forget the snow, that’s still nicely seasonal Could be a lot worse!
-
It’ll be needed for sure. An E/NE blocked scenario is no good if the temps aren’t in place further afield
-
It’s nearly 400hrs away, how can it possibly ‘be over’ for goodness sake, in modelling terms it’s not even started yet!
-
Back in the day there used to be 2 rules of thumb. 1. Don’t bother looking past 192hrs 2. Wait for the Majors to agree These rules still apply, goodness knows why folk seem to be so engrossed in what’s happening at 300+ hrs, it will ALWAYS change.
-
Watching the ECM. I would pretty much ignore the pub runs quite honestly!
-
Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
Beanz replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Dry and long - unlike our winters! -
I think the most important word in that post was 'if' Given we're 14 days (336hrs) away I think it's amazing that anybody would hang on a one model forecast alone..
-
Looking at the GFS and EURO snow acc chats for Sat into Sun, I would say they are probably about right in that they show some (between 1-5cm MAX) accumulation on mountainous regions such as Snowdonia, Brecons, Lake District and Scottish areas. Nothing at all outside of that.
-
Agreed, It’s too far out to discuss Christmas Day weather with any credibility. I don’t see any improvement in the 00s for the next 5-7 days. Snow charts being posted for the weekend as we all know will be massively overplaying the likely outcome (rain most places south of Derby)
-
If Gavin P was a weather forecaster there’d be no time left for anything else on TV
-
Cold it will likely be next week - but the not the pleasant kind, probably wet and windy at times. I’m guessing that’s not the sort of cold you’re after! A forecast based on tonight’s model output wouldn’t be much different to what it was this time yesterday.
-
Cold zonality from the models for day 7-10 next week - I would forget any idea of meaningful snow away from higher parts of Scotland. Certainly cold mid next week, but not that cold. Unfortunately this morning’s runs have not flipped back which I was hoping they might.
-
Well its certainly a much less cold 12Z overall and now with a more westerly flavour. Cool and unsettled into next week for the vast majority of the UK as it currently stands. However, it's still 10days away, which (ignoring those suggesting otherwise) the models can and do flip back and forth between synoptic patterns - so it's all possible.
-
You better believe it, as Steve says, never bet against the UKMO if it’s sticking to its guns! I lose count over the years how often this has been the case. No point getting excited about potential scenarios such as those modelled last night by GFS & ECM if the UKMO is remaining on the less cold side. Golden rule number 2 I think that is...or was it 3?
-
How many times??
-
I’m not convinced next week is a done deal yet! UKMO might be reserved for a reason, it wouldn’t be the first time.
-
It’s absolutely all about trends over period of output runs. It’s not so much that it’s been flipping, but pulling back from over playing some elements. Nothing unusual in that to be honest, but it’s hard not to get excited when one or two runs appear to be delivering great synoptics!
