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Beanz

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Everything posted by Beanz

  1. Beanz
    I can’t say I’m that excited, anything South of B’ham isn’t likely to see snow. Wrong set-up, wrong direction, uppers not cold enough.
  2. Beanz
    Probably because they’re a downgrade from the 12z and they’re still too far out to be believable, particularly given the number of false starts we’ve seen this winter. I suspect we’re all a little bit secretly excited to see them mind ??
  3. Beanz
    Ah ok, It doesn't show your location when reading on a mobile device so I was confused - obviously being UK centric! Not irrelevant at all
  4. Beanz
    Struggling with the chart...
  5. Beanz
    TWO is dead for a reason other than the weather though. It’s a pretty miserable outlook this morning, barely a cold NW’ly now if we’re lucky. We knew GFS would probably roll back, but it’s still annoying even when it does what you expect it too!
  6. Beanz
    No surprises, lets face it apart from the recent couple of weeks GFS does not exactly rank high in the performance stakes compared to its peers when it comes to 10day verification. Why is there so much of a following for that particular model in this forum?
  7. Beanz
    I’m glad I’m not the only one.
  8. Beanz
    I’m pleasantly surprised to see the ECM on board...it’s going to be a loooooonnnnng wait
  9. Beanz
    GFS having a bit of fun with FI this morning, enjoy watching the 204hr+ eye candy, I can’t see it being there tomorrow! ECM looking the sensible solution at the moment, UKMO is not ‘horrendous’ in fact at times like this my money is normally on UKMO to be the form horse.
  10. Beanz
    I’ve been spending the last 2 hours trying to figure out your post and missed the 18z... pub run looks hugely (as expected) over amplified. I’m with Nick Sussex, we’re not seeing what we need right now.
  11. Beanz
    I suspect any forecaster worth their salt uses the term ‘foreseeable’ as being pretty much that, about 5/6 days. The Met O have discussed a similar mobile pattern out to that point (into and over the weekend) in their own forecasts today. On NW ‘foreseeable’ tends to mean, well as far as the model run goes and maybe a bit more for extra measure
  12. Beanz
    Well next week continues to become a more disappointing outlook. Aside from ridiculous snow charts from GFS (which are bin fodder at best) the temps are looking like hitting double figures and more of our usual dross will be the order of the day.
  13. Beanz
    You’ll probably carry on not seeing it if you’re just poking around in FI
  14. Beanz
    I’m not sure about that - looks like cherry picking an outlier to me. The other models are all showing fairly horrendous synoptics now, not looking good at all for even the slightest hint of a flake or two.
  15. Beanz
    Temps are forecast to be close to double figures early next week. Accumulation of anything but rain is not likely happen.
  16. Beanz
    We don’t have any evidence yet, just some model output for period of time that’s still beyond any reliable timescale.
  17. Beanz
    Didn’t these muppets predict an ice-age last year?
  18. Beanz
    That’s 10 days away nearly, seriously
  19. Beanz
    Nice and wintery - i’d bank that to be honest.
  20. Beanz
    One model run is never representative of what will happen they’re just ‘ideas’ as to what could happen. You should see a combination of runs over a period of days and look at patterns, taking averages of combinations and look for trends. It’s mentioned time and again but very few take notice of the advice and still get hung up on one GFS run, and the pub run at that. ??
  21. Beanz
    For some winter weather! ??
  22. Beanz
    ECM looking great for something more seasonal, game on
  23. Beanz
    I look at this slightly differently, in that we never expect a cold, snowy dominated winter because it’s certainly not our default. Trying to find a reason for not having a non-typical winter is next to impossible to do, or perhaps pretty simple depending how you look at it. The GEM output actually looks ok, nice and settled for most of the UK, a bit mild perhaps but a darn sight better than cold rain.
  24. Beanz
    Well at least I don’t have to hibernate the weekend car, there’s always a positive side to a warmer winter. ??
  25. Beanz
    GFS is massively out on its own with the slightly less mild solution over the weekend in to next week, whilst the more reliable models all agree on a more mild set-up.. I can’t think of a time when GFS has come up trumps in this kind of scenario. I wouldn’t be backing it
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