WxHerts
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Posts posted by WxHerts
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Snowing and settling here N London approx 0.001cm but we will take it!!
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Just hit -2c here at 5pm!! Praying for some ppn early hours, MO app just given 4pm update now for a few hours of light snow here early morning..but obviously nothing from main high res models.
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Light snow floating down here
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I'm fast becoming desperate but a few models showing something setting up and tracking through Herts/N London area both Tues AM and even more so into Tues night (only Arpege runs out that far currently but shows a decent swathe lasting almost 12 hours excluding AM ppn!)...I'm not overly worried wrt marginality issues as I have elevation on my side and am far enough inland - so just praying for some moderate intensity ppn which sticks about for a few hours!
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I'm not entirely sure where it's coming from but the map on MO's site actually shows more interest on Friday morning as opposed to Thurs...many hours of light snow through the small hours, with temperatures widely sub zero! I've heard that they use some extended form of UKV for this but again I'm not entirely sure.
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Yikes from Arome, somehow it manages to perfectly skim the coast lol
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John Hammond just on lbc he’s clearly backing the more northern track for tomorrow (also touted a bfte late Jan but that’s another matter lol)..but seems the trend is overall going south as you would expect.
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Based on current radar evolution I actually think there's a small chance that the ppn currently centred around Hants could pivot a separate band into the London area, the system also looks to overall be gaining in intensity.
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Whisper it slight shift east and uptick in intensity on very latest ICON
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Shame I don't seem to be able to access archive ICON high-res charts on meteociel, but that's a huge dumping and so am just curious as to how good it is with the modelling of snow events specifically (I'm talking magnitude rather than placement obviously).
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End of GFS 6z OP really reminded me of this from NYE 1978 lol.. more info on that here: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/72097-snowstorm-of-dec-30th31st-1978/
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Anyone know when GEM got its warm 850hpa temp bias fixed?
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Ah only now are people beginning to wake up to the very real possibility of a setup that is just too far west for us to reel in the goods...ECM is majority cold rain, GFS is majority sleet.
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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:
It's laughable really,the different between the gfs and UKMO at 144!
the gfs want's to send the LP NE with pos snow in the north whereas the UKMO sends it packing to the Azores
I think what's most important is what's going on to our west and really they look quite similar in that regard!
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Make no mistake, UKMO 144h is a gorgeous chart
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10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
I think there are 3 reasons for this. First, the evidence, from the verification stats the GFS is not as good a model as ECM:
At day 5 it is behind the ECM, UKMO and just behind the GEM (CMC on chart).
Secondly, it runs 4 times a day so gets more airtime. Thirdly, all its output is freely available, whereas only limited output is available free from some of the other models. So you see more output from GFS on here for those reasons.
B..but I though ICON was best? Great analysis, I would add a fourth point in that ECM's solutions, even if very wrong, often simply appear less outrageous when put side by side next to GFS - as in I'd say it's much rarer for ECM to churn out those random, 50mb drop in 24h type bowling ball lows range that GFS is infamous for. Oh and speaking of ICON, why hasn't it rolled out yet?
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This is what you call an upgrade folks
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All this and yet we still end up under a southerly lol. There will be some beautiful ens though, and GEM is also great if you haven't checked it out yet.
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ITS OK I NEVER LIKED SNOW ANYWAY
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Harmonie remains consistent right up to the finish line, even if its scenario was to completely flop (which is looking increasingly unlikely) it deserves credit for its consistency.
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3.7C North London and dropping fast, winds dead still and there is little sign of any significant cloud on the horizon.
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Heavy rain just cleared here with largely clear skies following on behind, some PWS to my west (namely Watford area) show temperatures now plummeting under this so I will hopefully be recording similar in the not too distant future. I will cautiously add that I think the radar picture looks decent, obviously no model has got it right but the trajectory looks...decent.
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1 minute ago, sheikhy said:
But its going further and further east!!danger signs are there mate!!!looks good but any further east and that will be that!
Actually seems 6z runs are trying to reverse that trend (Arome pictured 0z v 6z further west), will soon be turning to the radar (where ppn currently looks a tad more beefy than modelled)..
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Let the battle commence
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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
A massive kick in the face if ecm comes off, because yet AGAIN we miss the main crux of the cold and it ends up a marginal mess for the majority. I would suggest it's one of the more sensible options however given it's a very similar synoptic to a type that we have seen twice this winter thus far and nothing major has changed to suddenly warrant us heading into the freezer in the next 10/14 days..no I do not believe we are not seeing the effects of the SSW yet - that will come later in some way shape or form. Ecm delivers really well for those who happen to live in the mountains, but for the many not the few it is, yet again, really rather rubbish! And I cannot be the only one who is getting incredibly bored with having to pray that evaporative cooling is on our side, let's be real the majority of us want to go into the freezer 09/10 style and this ain't it. Some were recently touting a 'historic January', uhh where, what so drastically changed?!