WxHerts
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Posts posted by WxHerts
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Our beloved Harmonie has shifted the main risk west quite considerably (contrary to other comparable models which appear to have shifted east instead).
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Lol, GEM is the dream scenario for next weekend: temperatures very widely down to -5c, shortly accompanied by precipitation bumping up from the south
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Regarding next week/weekend: the first example below was Nottingham earlier this year, under what the majority would classify as quite ‘poor’ 850hpa temperatures. Obviously nothing spectacular but it would please some. The second example is North London early in 2019, again under quite poor 850hpa temperatures. Both made possible via the magic of evaporative cooling and both largely unmodelled, some food for thought.
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Infrequent flashes to my east..I bet if it was daytime the cloudscapes would be epic, there’s so many deep contrasts of black hovering over here at the minute
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19.6c here as we approach 9am, sitting under a completely slate grey sky. Hard to feel optimistic.
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This is looking gorgeous down towards London!
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Forgot whether cloud pic sharing is still allowed in here ..but here’s something towering to my south that’s just popped up out of cloudless skies in the last 10 mins
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Bit jel of those to my NW
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Looking a tad better now
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Muggy as, sun in and out..surely just a matter of time, not expecting here I’m just cooking them
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Any idea why false sferics seem to keep randomly popping up today?
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6 minutes ago, bradleywx said:
Just hit 29.0c, dewpoints levelled off to 14.0c for now..I feel compelled to say it always impresses me how fast things develop, 20mins ago it was virtually cloudless, 10mins ago there were a few flecky teeny tiny cumulus and now there's lots of them, pretty meaty and starting to block out the sun
ok so not even 10 minutes later and there's now a tower to my north, and dewpoint gone up by almost a degree to 14.8c..
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Just hit 29.0c, dewpoints levelled off to 14.0c for now..I feel compelled to say it always impresses me how fast things develop, 20mins ago it was virtually cloudless, 10mins ago there were a few flecky teeny tiny cumulus and now there's lots of them, pretty meaty and starting to block out the sun
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A few small cumulus floating about in all directions now, I suppose it's a start considering we've now had hours of nothing but wispy cirrus lol..liking that Torro update
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Temp is soaring here 25.6c whilst dp is hovering around 17c, skies slowly becoming less hazy...it feels stormy though, haven't been able to say that in a long while
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Skies nice and clear to the south, as soon as we get that surface heating the better, things seem quite ahead of schedule which can only be good?
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Lol moovinng onnn cough bust..arome has a decent few hours of reasonably widespread SB activity later on, am certainly looking forward to the cloudscapes if nothing else - generally get some epic ones from this setup, cloudless skies suddenly blocked off by shooting towers, absolutely huge ones, should go totally still and quiet too and with dewpoints modelled to shoot to 18-20c over a largeish swathe, surface temperatures of course high twenties it should offer that proper calm before the storm feel!
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What’s all this anaprop appearing inland over the last couple of frames
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Well to my untrained eyes looking at the radar, things look both much further east and also much less muted than expected, in fact I can’t find any hi res match which is even remotely close to the current radar image
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I’ve got a hunch that tomorrow afternoon’s SB activity is currently being underplayed, models are notoriously with them in particular anyway..maybe I’m being optimistic but based on what I’ve seen there’s no reason to believe it’ll be restricted to just far eastern/north eastern counties, proper ingredients are in place well away from there.
edit: met office have increased likelihood on tomorrow’s warning, shape looks similar? I suppose that was always expected however.
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Friday pm yellow warning for east just issued
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Elevated storms on offer here too Fri am, course whatever happens it'll end up being either west cornwall or east kent stealing the show
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Jff of course Arpege 12z scenario illustrates elevated storms crossing the channel early Fri am, before trough arrives late afternoon and triggers SB storms (pushing 19/20c dewpoints away with it).
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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
WOW...Arome 18z generally agrees with Harmonie's overall synopsis, a significant change from its 12z run (18z shows widespread snow through the SE by just after midnight)!