WxHerts
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Posts posted by WxHerts
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4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
If the warmth follows at day 7-10, all good! Just looks a bit wetter until then. ECM ppn charts show 50mm+ In the next 6 days across the SW and Wales. I’d say this is looking more and more likely as we nail down the low position.
Fair enough, but a lot of the time in this country it's no pain no gain - if we have to endure a couple of washout type days to get a decent shot at some proper warmth/storms then I'm 100% all for it
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25 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
Far too early to nail exact detail. But the broad picture is looking likely that we could see some decent convective events both homegrown and maybe even imported in from the SE. Places like Benelux and Germany are in for some pretty high temperatures. So anything that does form over there (pretty likely!) could head over this way.
Yeah agreed, a potentially great convective setup on the way..I was questioning more the use of hi res models already lol, far too early!
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'Dissapointing', 'very wet and unsettled'..what am I reading?! Or more importantly, what are you lot viewing? *Could* be a couple of wet days, but after that we look to be opening the doors to warmth, humidity and storms..what's not to like?
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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
The UKMO swings the low out of the way at 144,i would then suspect that it would warm up from the south.
Yes very icon esque, a fine scenario
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Gfs every so slightly further S/SW with trough at 90h..it really does feel like like winter lol, watching the developments of a channel low
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Lol, too early for discussing specifics no? Let's get the pattern nailed on first I'd say, the very complex pattern might I add!
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I've seen a few people saying today's featured the best storm they've seen in years....whattt?! Lasted about an hour here, sporadic bright pink bolts, some very impressive shotgun type thunder and a very healthy 14.7mm - impressive persistence for a northerly yes, best event since 1st October last year when I got lucky with quite a localised overhead storm..but god best in years?! No decent sized hail, no daytime darkness, generally low strike rates, no epic convective gusts and no proper torrential rain..all essential items on my good storm checklist!!
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UKMO 12z looks similar to 0z, but that's fine IMO. Looks like we'd inevitably reach the same end result as the 'better' solutions just a few days later, only way for trough to move is south and that's clearly what it's doing from d5>d6
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3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Any news on ensembles?
Shock horror OP is an outlier..but considering the mean gets above 10C, what a great set I’d say. Remarkable agreement, but that can quickly get undone..
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Epic convective setup coming in just after d10 too..we can only dream. Will be hard pressed to find a much better heat + convective setup for early June than that.
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Can't say I've seen too many memorable tstorm events off a northerly haha, but high res picking up on that cape too with a decent ppn signal, so could be a few very beefy downpours about..
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Astounding gfs 18z, best run I've seen in a while and we're not even at d10 yet - locked in heat from there, of note though seeing trough further southwest than any other runs this evening
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High risk high reward type scenario being modelled..large bank of warmer than avg air to our east/southeast...perhaps some intense model watching over the days ahead. Not something that can really be picked up on via just looking at background signals, as a small scale difference of just a few hundred miles in this case could easily prove the difference between persistent rain and suppressed daytime temps v sunshine, high twenties and tropical pm SB storms
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Lol you guys enjoy today’s show I’ll just be waiting for this to come off
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Verges really beginning to take on that yellow carpet look
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Stunning set of 12z runs thus far, keeping an eye on that upper low slowly moving thru the atlantic @ d6ish for any plumey/30c+ potential later on..but that would be at least 10 days off..what's for certain however is the current warm and dry spell continuing into the foreseeable (with a trace of much needed rain or drizzle, albeit not enough, this weekend)!
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2 minutes ago, bradleywx said:
A few towers rapidly going up to my SE now, clear skies to my west and sun just risen above accas..come onnnn
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A few towers rapidly going up to my SE now, clear skies to my west and sun just risen above accas..come onnnn
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2 minutes ago, Zak M said:
Alarms at the ready
Same..haven’t done this many alarms since mid March ..not that I’m expecting much at all, but watching any sorts of developments can always be fun lol
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Arome's first chance to show us its thoughts for Thursday..anddd I'd certainly take that!
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Is it just me, or does this cloud floating by me at the moment look a bit like some sort of huge anvil..? (Spoiler: sadly, it isn’t)..but could be reality in a few days hehe - loving the eye candy I’ve been seeing on this thread over the last 24 hours, keep it coming!!
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11 minutes ago, Zak M said:
Just found some more videos of that 28th June 2012 storm, good god!!
The thunderclap on the last vid @ 0:28 is simply incredible..
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10 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Looking ahead to next weekend/early next week there appears to be a lot of potential for some strong/severe thunderstorms across Southern areas. Just for a laugh I decided to look at some of the available charts:
Quite extraordinary what the latest GFS run has in store and I must stress this is likely to be changed/watered down.
But for early Monday a large amount of moisture is advected northwards across S UK, 850hpa temps reaching 15'c in the SE which allows 800J/KG of ML CAPE to develop. Followed by 40knts of DLS and very steep lapse rates this is simply all the ingredients required to spawn a few severe elevated thunderstorms. GFS actually hinting at quite a prolific MCS to move NNE across CS England Monday morning.
I better stop myself before I get too excited but for those new, what the GFS is currently showing for next weekend is typically what you require for a severe thunderstorm outbreak. If any of you have any questions then feel free to ask. I'll be keeping an eye on these developments over the coming week.
Looks exciting, but doesn't the GFS tend to present these sorts of parameters very often 5-7 days before a plume event (particularly wrt CAPE)? Only for them to be significantly watered down within about 2-3 days before? Fingers crossed no matter what though..
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2 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:
Has there been many instances where mother nature just does what it wants and completely ignores the predicted outputs of the models in regards to storms popping up unexpectedly? Not saying we're going to get a full on storm out of the blue tonight but I was just curious to know if this has happened before?
Yes..well the opposite, but yes! Often they don't pop up at all
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Nothing like a bit of pessimism to kick off the day were people expecting GFS 2000j/kg charts to persist? I’m assuming that’s what it is, because to me the potential still looks great at this very early stage