[Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

What's happening NW of London?

Well spotted..indeed was surprised to hear loud, heavy rain (and even the odd piece of smallish hail) outside here roughly 10 minutes ago - seemingly popped out of nowhere. Radar confirms that it was completely clear to my south at 21:20...it's now very dark overhead, there's a very distinct contrast to the relatively clear skies to my south. The night is still young perhaps..?

[Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards]

Best I’ve been able to salvage so far from my 19min vid of the London cell..

[Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards]

Hehehe am loving the view to my SW!!

[Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards]

Things look like they’re about to go down (or should I say ‘up’ hahaha how hilarious am I) to my N/NW..

[Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards]

Skies looking quite..fancy..to my east - few towers setting themselves up to my west as well. 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

Anyone know why UKMO 144h hasn't come out yet? Much better by d5 anyway..

[Model output discussion - late November]

ICON 18z, as well as having improved amplification due to WAA being even more vertical than earlier, is also further west than 12z with deep cold closer to us by d5...GFS will make for very interesting viewing if it shows the same - think we've latched onto something really significant today and who would've thought it just judging solely by the models 2/3 days ago?! Something tells me the coming spell could be more than transient too, let's hope the OP runs begin to toy with that scenario...if not though, how often do we get to say that cold weather looks set to start bang on cue with meteorological winter? Interesting times ahead

[Model output discussion - late November]

Just now, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Yes not sure if I'm liking the progression of the GFS as by D7 the HP still isn't really doing much and is staying in a bit of a flatter position - will it push further North eventually?

Probably not, short term differences most important to take note of at the moment though. A definite improvement by d5, hopefully GEFS reflect this and then ECM later

[Model output discussion - late November]

7 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I wouldn't say the UKMO differs 'significantly' - I just don't think it goes out far enough yet to paint the similar picture for D7/8 (D7-8 were the 'focal point' of the ICON where the HP proper pushes to the NW/Greenland) 

In other words had the UKMO gone a little further we could well have seen that second HP push towards a similar location to the ICON - it's just a day or so later

(I am a novice by the way so don't take me too seriously! But I don't think the UKMO is a complete contrast to the ICON).

Not that I particularly would chose the ICON as the most reliable in the world ..

 I agree that UKMO would likely be good if it were to continue on a few days. Compared to ICON and GFS at 144h however, it appears be the odd one out - UKMO flattest of the lot.   

[Model output discussion - late November]

 While UKMO appears to differ significantly to ICON,  GFS at 120h looks very similar indeed...!

[Model output discussion - late November]

 Very big differences between UKMO and ICON at 144h, UKMO lacking WAA.  

[Model output discussion - late November]

Wow! ICON very, very different to earlier with cold and snow likely by d10 if the run were to continue. UKMO out in around 25mins, let's hope for more of the same

 

[Model output discussion - late November]

Beautiful start to the 12z runs from ICON, with ridge heading much further north whilst setup looks much less conducive for toppling. Now showing cold and frosty conditions by the end of November as opposed to chilly and drizzly on the 0z

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

Excellent day of model watching today, some beautiful runs and charts...however things are very far from resolved. What I've found most notable about today is the ECM's determination in keeping the unwanted Azores high at bay whilst allowing the doors to open up towards Greenland to take charge - very abnormal, however GFS says no to this scenario; though looking through to around d6, GFS differs significantly to UKMO, ICON and ECM. ICON 18z now out to d5, and while both runs are excellent for cold, there's still very big differences between the 12z and 18z (with 18z perhaps a slightly better route towards cold as it appears more open to undercutting) - to summarise many more twists and turns to come I'm sure, but there remains a massive amount to be pleased about as there has been over the last few weeks  

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

6 minutes ago, HerneBayWX said:

 I see a prolonged cold spell setting up.  

Now now need to see be seeing far more runs than just this, however it’s true that yes, if this chart were to come off then we’d likely be heading into quite a prolonged cold spell - all looking very ominous to our north. It’s also true that there’s been significant model convergence this morning up to around d7 (bar GFS), seeing pressure being put in all the right places now  

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

Fail to see what's so horrendous about the ECM this evening...?! Jet stream remains very meridonial and well south of its usual position, a raging PV is well away from Greenland whilst things continue to look very ominous north of Siberia, meanwhile significant amplification exits the states?! That on top of a significant stratospheric warming event being hinted at by the GFS 12z today I'm really struggling to see the negatives I must say.

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

ECM quite easy on the eye this evening...makes much less of high pressure to our east compared to other models as it makes much more of an effort to retrogress it over towards the Greenland area early on - PV looking quite ominous too as it lurks north of Siberia with some very cold air building...of course this is still all at/around day 10, though it must be acknowledged that other models definitely aren't a million miles off. Small changes earlier on will continue to screw up output later on so until the next 5 days are resolved and over with, there will continue to be massive flip flops from run to run in the extended range. Need to stay positive though as things really are not looking bad at all from a cold perspective...

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

Another excellent ECM at 240h, with a strong blocking high to our west whilst very cold air to our north begins a rapid descent south...parts of that chart are December 16th 2010 esque (a lot less extreme ofc)! Here’s to an excellent day of model watching  

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Can we have a bit more of an explanation as to why a chart may be 'excellent' please? As i've said before, it's not helpful to those members reading this thread, wishing to learn.

Thanks. 

Roger that...ECM 12z features rapidly rising heights to the North round Greenland, along with strong hints of retrogression. Then finally the cherry on top is a strong low near the east coast of the US encouraging WAA and thus further strengthening heights to the North whilst also increasing the chances of an undercut later on. Meanwhile the Azores high is no where to be seen - always excellent news for coldies

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

240h is excellent.

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hopefully the 144 hour chart upgrades from yesterday!!this saga may not be over yet!!

People being too quick to react at the moment IMO, a few days of somewhat less good runs and it's all over...massive uncertainty at the moment so it's just interesting seeing what's being put out. The trend is our friend, and so is EC at 168h when compared what it was showing at this time yesterday - the differences are laughable.

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

UKMO good at d6 - would’ve been nice to see beyond. Need to see more of that circled amplification round the states which just isn’t there yet on other models..subtle changes such as that make all the difference. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

Very good ECM, textbook undercut whilst heights continue to rise left right and centre..think we need to watch for sliding lows especially becoming more of a trend over the next couple of days.

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

 D8 actually looks reasonably similar to GFS all round..infact low looks a bit more 'slidey' on ECM, let's see where this goes.  

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

Evening all, first post on here but been a long time lurker..absolutely perfect setup at d10 on the GFS with Atlantic blocked off with unusually cold air (given time of year) fast approaching from the NE..this is possibly our first 'boom' OP of the season?! Interesting times indeed...