Anthony Burden

Nightmare scenario for the met office as this could go right to the wire before being able to pin point exactly where the possible rain snow boundary could be.Twenty four hours might be all they can be sure of in these very tricky meteorological circumstances,a possible major weather event I feel is on its way.

Evening all;Big upgrade from met office extended my suggestion is you read this then take in the 12z charts before coming to any conclusion.Exciting times ahead I feel,I think I will wait to comment any further after the 12z ECM.

Morning Nick,yes the boundary line from the very cold to less cold is going to produce some very disruptive weather ie heavy snow.

ECM very interesting tonight 168 hrs to 192 hrs small low pressure crossing the north of uk from northwest possible snow event,while another low pressure moves from west to east in the south of uk possible snow event.Lots to get your head around but a possible memorable beginning to next week fingers crossed of course.

Evening all,American models especially GEM keen on allowing the Atlantic lows to push up and effect the south of the UK as usual if this happens how far does the milder air filter north.Still at least 8 or 9 days off so a lot of uncertainty the ECM tonight might give a better idea but I feel 48 hrs is needed before we can even start to clarify the track of these possible low pressures

Evening all,ECM finally coming on board with others regarding an extended cold period,still open regarding temperatures -10 hpa a loft never far away could still become severe especially in northern areas so going to feel this possible long fetched cold/verycold period.

I would imagine all high tech solutions are studied including GFS.

-10 hpa showing it’s hand over the UK that does not happen much in this country the met office has stated that severe weather looks a small bet,my version is that the more we see those -10hpa temperatures a loft the greater the chance.

GFS Nudging towards severe weather,met office update

Morning all,models are struggling post 168 hrs with a changeable weather pattern temperatures will the northerly find it’s way through the whole of the UK or will the south especially,be under attack from the Atlantic lows.Nothing resolved as yet until then snow showers looks a good bet in the southeast possibly pushing into central southern areas as well with -10 hpa going to feel very cold Monday and cold for the rest of the week with just a short pick up of single digit temperatures end of the week,so lots to enjoy and hopefully longer term.

Hi John,big call to make but certainly finally balanced very interesting times.

Morning all,ECM showing a mostly cold dry period untill middle of next week with a small pick up of single figure temperatures in the second half before another possible Arctic blast with some snow possible from low pressure to our north east,all still up for change at that time range but still lots going on weather wise with the polar vortex adding to exciting times.

Evening all,not much to add tonight except enjoy this long wintery spell that seems to be excepted by ECM/GFS and met office extended outlook,dry to begin first phase,then phase two hopefully involving some white stuff.That of course is possibley nine to ten days away still so fingers crossed ECM will follow that scenario this evening so all eyes on the charts in this exceptional period coming up,fingers crossed.

Evening all,The reliable time frame show a very cold easterly air flow over central southern England with frost freezing fog and it will feel raw in that easterly wind untill the middle of next week.From then the high pressure feed has a slightly higher 850 hpa temperature allowing a nudge up of temperatures for 2/3days following that all models at present bring the Greenland high and a second wave of Arctic weather that at shows real prospects of some severe weather all still some time away in weather terms,personally I will be keeping a close eye on the met office extended outlook to see if they change from a low likely severe spell.

Hi Matt,great read thanks for your outstanding knowledge to this site very much appreciated.

Morning all,high pressure holding strong Geffs ensembles showing a short uptick in 850 hpa for a few days before heading south again just the position of the high pressure over us before hopefully the Greenland high takes over.There is some hints that Atlantic lows may start to try and encroach from the south/southwest but all very speculative at a long range out frost freezing fog and possibly ice days on the cards for the reliable.

Evening all,charts beginning to firm up on a possible long fetched cold/verycold period as give it’s due met office extended outlook has been saying for some time.January could break some records regarding low temperatures which we are certainly not use to for some considerable time,will be interesting to see if ECM begins to strengthen a Greenland pressure rise as GFS and GEM are keen on out in fantasy island

Morning all,Geffs ensembles show the mean temperatures at 850hpa well below average for 10 days plus with a few days around average after this mild wet period comes gratefully to an end.High pressure looking the form horse as met office mentions with frosts freezing fog when clear skies above,orientation and position of the high will determine cloud cover and temperatures but cold looks the form horse how cold will depend as already mentioned.

Hi just have to comment on the ECM tonight that is some serious cold showing,met office extended stated that a severe cold spell was unlikely,but looking at ECM I’m not so sure.

Evening all,looking now at cold/verycold dry period with frost freezing fog on the Menu how severe this possible long running period could get is still up for grabs,one thing for sure the longer we stay in this cold/verycold theme low pressure may well try to advance and that white stuff which in the south we have been starved of could well show it’s hand as the met office extended outlook suggest.

Morning all,Happy New Year to you all great chart watching all about the positioning of this forecast high pressure regarding depth of cold,different scenarios with ECM and GFS but the pick of the bunch goes to UKM 168hrs that would bring some Scandinavian air across our shores and would feel raw to say the least.Still if UKM produces that chart at 120/144hrs that would rubber stamp for me a very cold period on it’s way.

Morning all,ECM is a peach this morning could not ask for better Synoptics that’s of course if you like frost freezing fog and snow all looks on the cards.Lots to look forward to in this month going to feel this very cold period,possibly a long period of sub zero temperatures,get the gloves hats coats and sledges ready your going to need them.

Evening all,good all round agreement of a cold /verycold period of wintery weather lots of shuffling to continue on position of high pressure,time frame regarding reliability 144/168 hrs maximum any continental feed likely to be very cold so all eyes on the positioning and orientation of the high pressure at the reliable time frame untill then lots of chopping and changing,some patience required keeping an open mind advisable.

Hi Nick,good to see your geography is spot on.

Morning all,ECM brings a pin ball low pressure to the northwest of Scotland at 216 hrs sliding southeast into the continent allowing bingo at 240 hrs with Greenland high building and low pressure to our southeast dragging in some substantial cold northeasterly flow.Still 10 days away but with ECM ensembles looking good and met office extended forecast following the general wintery theme I will allow myself some excitement but always remembering nothing is guaranteed with the weather.