Anthony Burden

Evening all,the uncertainty continues for when this breakdown to less cold air happens,eventually I suppose it must but some models more keen than others Icon to me stands out at holding it’s ground from yesterday out to 180 hrs to keep the cold going over most of the UK,the block with very cold temperatures in Scandinavia and Northern Europe causing some major headaches with the models regarding Atlantic break through over UK before all this excitement freezing temperatures and possible snow events could all occur within 3/4days.

Morning all,still lots of uncertainty this morning icon keeping the cold theme out to it’s cut off at 180 hrs ECM going for less cold air pushing into the south at 120 hrs.The block is going to cause some major headaches to the charts in general lots to be resolved yet,great watching.

Evening all,Icon and ECM slowing the Atlantic lows down and holding the colder continental air around longer all due to the Scandinavian high along with some very cold temperatures to our northeast.I would not be surprised to see the block intensify and bring an easterly flow over the UK along with keeping the cold theme going.

Morning all,sorry to see a downbeat feeling on this site this morning should be the exact opposite cold very cold week coming up some snow in places and just starting winter season.Yes a probably a rise in temperatures from around Wednesday next week before then low single figure temperatures some white stuff be it frost or snow,then a less cold period with a possible westerly flow with ECM in fantasy island suggesting an alternative back to more cold weather.

Evening all,well well well GFS bringing back northern blocking along with high pressure building from the south from144hrs keeping the low pressure systems stuck in the Atlantic going no where and finally finishing in fantasy island territory with a Scandinavian high bringing the real cold back again.Been sometime since I have seen so much chopping and changing from ECM along with GFS and so much uncertainty in that 168hrs onwards,so intriguing great watching what will be the follow on from this cold spell,at present any body’s guess.

Morning all,ECM abandoned the Greenland/Atlantic high pressure this morning and brings the Atlantic train through albeit at around 168hrs so still time to change till then a cold week of single figure temperatures mostly dry other than possible wintery showers.going to feel this cold spell after a long period of mild/verymild weather so enjoy this first winter spell .

Evening all,cold/very cold all the way with ECM high pressure driving a long cold spell with bitter cold spreading down from the northeast a very wintery start to December and Christmas run in,who could ask for more keep the Atlantic lows to the south and build the cold / very cold in then let’s get our snow from an easterly flow.

Morning all.some major uncertainty from 192 hrs onwards after ECM 240 hrs mind boggling chart yesterday a back track on northern blocking While GFS remains strong with Atlantic onslaught and no signs of high pressure.Normally I would go for half way house but because ECM keeps showing high pressure in the Atlantic I’m uncertain,so who to back answer neither yet wait 24/48hrs.Before all that fax charts best to see if the south will get some snow from the low pressure track on Thursday/Friday.

Evening all,has to be one of the best ECM charts I have seen for a very very long time this 12z ECM is mind boggling if correct with Greenland high being replaced with major northern blocking that would surely put the cat amongst the pigeons Exeter ie met office will need to reprogram Glosea .Lets wait with baited breath and everything else crossed.

Morning all,interesting week coming up fax charts show how complicated and messy it is,regarding the white stuff well I’m sure some parts of the UK will undoubtedly get some and cold will be the theme for all so nothing to complain about.The longer term prospects as I mentioned before in my blog is very dependent on blocking to our north/northwest that might decrease a little but possibly only for a very short time,the proof is in the pudding of course.

Morning Nick,Fax charts show a very messy picture complicated to say the least.

Evening all,UKMO the best charts through to 168 hrs this evening while ECM prefers the Atlantic lows to bring less cold air Ito the mix,still all about heights to our north west still more chopping and changing to occur from the charts but cold for the coming week looks nailed on to me with snow in Scotland and the north of England and perhaps still a low chance of of some white stuff further south.Longer term all guess work but northern blocking remains the key to every door for all cold lovers like myself,to early to throw the towel in lots to play for yet in this upcoming cold spell.

Morning all,ECM maintaining it’s cold theme throughout the144 hrs/168hrs will be interesting depending on low pressure positioning for some of the white stuff.Best to keep on eye on the fax charts for more accurate positioning just to add great to see the Greenland high extending out into the north west Atlantic keeping the cold theme going for us.

Evening all,ECM very good for cold lovers and the possibility of a good dumping of snow can not be ruled out very important for tracking of low pressure and a prolonged cold period is the pressure rise around Greenland and our north west in general so for me personally I will be looking to the northwest with everything crossed for something special .

Morning all,UKMO/ICON/ECM bringing channel low rather than further north at 168hrs still chopping and changing to take place but odds beginning to keep continental cold air in place thanks to high pressure North west of UK so cold with rain sleet or snow on the agenda some hard frost to boot .Not bad for this time of the year sit back and enjoy still a possibility of a snow fest for the south.

Evening all,ECM keen tonight to bring Atlantic back into the equation with the lows tracking over the UK before heading north to settle over Scotland and fill that event is gratefully a good deal to far out for the charts to be sure of the tracking and positioning either from ECM or GFS.Meanwhile cold is the theme with frost and snow in places not bad for the end of November.

Morning all,The charts showing a rather cold picture up to 120 hrs before the real cold gets pushed over the uk from low pressure tracking from the west/northwest to land up to our south east allowing some very cold continental air to filter across the UK.From then on ECM /GFS suggesting low pressure from the Atlantic trying to push in from the south against the cold block,we have had this situation many times before so at 192/216hr to early to say where the snow line will be,till then let’s enjoy this first wintery spell of the winter.

Morning all,ECM GFS UKMO all looking very wintery this morning ECM favouring a more northerly while GFS going for the full Monty EASTERLY all depending on high pressure position.Gefs ensembles mean looking cold /very cold all the way with Europe heading into some serious cold any easterly would bring the UK into some notable cold weather fingers crossed could be looking at something special.

Evening all,UKMO looks good to me through to 168 hrs also ECM showing at 192hrs the Atlantic high pushing north to allow another polar blast at 216hrs all models still struggling to follow positioning of high pressure along with orientation.Cold temperatures along with frosts and some white stuff still looks a good bet to me key to all doors high pressure in Atlantic preferably the higher north/northwest the better.

Morning all,ECM GFS UKMO all have one think in common high pressure it’s positioning and orientation key to every door regarding mild cold effecting our shores.GFS keen on transferring the high from Atlantic to Scandinavian based bringing a possible very cold N/easterly to the UK.All to play for at present great watching nothing boring about the weather pattern at present.

Hi Nick did you feel that ECM along with met office struggled with the amount of pressure rise in the Atlantic along with orientation.

Morning all,GFS moderating it’s Arctic blast this morning while ECM excepts GFS cold incursion due to mid Atlantic pressure rise and orientation to an extent.Single temperatures looks on the cards for many at the end of the week along with some snow in places,the amount and what parts of UK still uncertain.

Evening all,great to see this site buzzing well ECM and GFS are basically the same except for time difference so some very interesting times ahead for all who enjoy a winter wonderland some white stuff looking more than possible in some parts also a very noticeable drop in temperature.One of the best end to November could be on its way let’s hope for more excitement this winter.

Morning all,don’t recall this situation between ECM and UKMO disagreement from 120hrs onwards happening on many occasions as regards GFS well that is a normal occurrence.ECM has been reluctant to except a weather pattern change occurring through the high pressure build in the Atlantic,but with out a doubt is as far as I can remember starting to eat humble pie.This polar incursion looks on the cards for how long

Evening all,GFS /UKMO at 168 hrs mind blowing for all cold lovers,must be one of the best charts I have seen regarding GFS at this time of the year GEM/ ICON not on board so all eyes on ECM if it follows GFS/UKMO then this weather channel will crash.