SqueakheartLW
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Posts posted by SqueakheartLW
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Warmth is persisting and slightly increasing in the western Pacific and the El Nino is hanging on very well although has become a very modoki event now.
Nino 4 Nino 3.4
Nino 3 Nino 1+2
Anomalies 7 day anomaly change
Are we sure we are heading to La Nina or are we going to set up a 2nd year Nino and a modoki event for winter 2024/25?
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What is of particular interest for this year is how warm the start has been and you'd think we are top at this stage but one year had a warmer start than this one and that year was 1990. This is based on years from 1878 onwards when daily mins, maxes and means are all available.
Below I have the 6th April rolling annual mean CET's
6th April Rolling Annual Mean CET
Pos Year 6th Apr Rolling Mean Final Finishing Pos Final Rolling Mean
1 1990 7.266 9 10.655
2 2024 7.137 ??? ???
6 2014 6.804 3 10.948
10 2020 6.637 5 10.752
11 2022 6.538 1 11.149
12 1999 6.450 8 10.660
18 2023 6.330 2 11.101
32 2011 5.944 6 10.715
40 1949 5.700 10 10.642
88 2018 4.613 7 10.679
97 2006 4.493 4 10.8631990 of course did go on to finish in our current top 10 warmest years on record but slipped down the order compared with some other top 10 years
What would be of interest would be if from today forwards we saw 2006 values from 7th April to 31st December 2024 (The year that has most to gain of the eventual top 10 from this point forwards) the provisional annual CET at the end of 2024 would be .....
11.546C
Shows what could be possible this year with a new annual record set that would smash 2022 by a decent margin of +0.397C
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1994/95 not cold but could we count the 1995 as 1995/96 as that was a colder winter
2011 wasn't especially cold but maybe Dec 10 was continuing this cold sequence on
Look out for a cold winter in 2026/2027 then and 2042/2043
On the other run the next cold winter should be 2094/2095 but I'd have to get to almost 110 years old to see this one.
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The rest of the storm lovers in the UK must be jealous right now. It's the only storm activity in the entire UK
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Was good for those just west of Lincoln but typical the thunder and lightning stops before it gets here LOL
Unless it suddenly starts again then I just missed out
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Think Scunthorpe is in for a direct hit
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14 hours ago, summer blizzard said:
My general rule with the CFS and most ENSO models is to ignore actual values since they tend to amplify the sub-surface too much when it's rising and falling.
If we look at first year peak values though we get..
54: -0.9
64: -0.8
70: -1.4 (peak in Feb 71)
73: -2.0
83: -1.0
88: -1.8
95: -1.0
98: -1.6
05: -0.9 (peak in Jan 06)
07: -1.6
10: -1.6
16: -0.7
20: -1.3
So the range is -0.7 to -2.0 with a middle ground of say -1.4.
Worth saying for winter that a weak La Nina is probably preferable to a strong one
If I narrow these down to La Nina years following strong to Super Nino events we have:
1973: -2.0
1983: -1.0
1998: -1.6
2016: -0.7
Still a range here but unlike the above selection I think these are all CP La Nina events which typically doesn't bode too well if you want a cold winter unless the event is weak.
Of the 4 winters following the 4 above only 1983/84 could come close to cold.
I could still have hope for winter 2024/25 though as the last 2 winters featuring La Nina combined with an expected WQBO have turned out not that bad. 2020/21 had cold snaps and spells scattered throughout whilst 2022/23 did feature that cold December spell as well as the short cold interludes in January and March 2023.
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Notice CFS is going all in for a Super Nina again
Last 3 Nina's it's done this then it backed right off to weak/moderate in the end. Is this another repeat of the same or will we go to Strong/Super
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5 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:
cold blob making an appearance again
We could be in for a hot and dry summer if it continues.
I would have thought the reverse tripole would be the best anomaly pattern for a hot and dry summer like 2018
The cold blob summers between 2014 and 2017 I wouldn't call hot or dry.
2014 was probably the "best" of these summers but even that one I wouldn't call particularly dry. 2015 was generally poor overall apart from some drier days in June and the 1 day heat spike in July. 2016 was mixed and 2017 started out quite good but got worse as it went on.
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18 hours ago, damianslaw said:
Mid March snow has been very common, 1980, 1985, 1987, 1994, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2008 (well a bit later at easter), 2013 and 2018. In recent years it has been more absent though.
Snow in March nearly always comes after a cold winter or one that featured several cold snaps but on occasions it can crop up in other years.
Of the years you mentioned I know that 1984/85, 1986/87, 1993/94, 1995/96, 2000/01, 2005/06, 2012/13 and 2017/18 were all either cold winters or had several colder snaps within them.
1979/80 and 2007/08 not so cold winters and 2007/08 was a milder one.
I often think there are similarities between 2000/01, 2005/06 and 2017/18. All of them featured a SSW event in the mid to late winter period. All of them featured colder weather during the winter itself and had snow roughly in the same parts at the end of the winter and into March as well.
2000/01 - Snow 23rd Feb to 3rd March then again 17th to 21st March
2005/06 - Snow 24th Feb to 5th March then again 11th to 20th March
2017/18 - Snow 26th Feb to 3rd March then again 17th to 19th March
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That's a rapid transition to La Nina predicted there. Hope that doesn't mean a washout summer on the way.
However it seems we are maintaining the usual form of a 1 year wonder with an EP El Nino which switches straight to a La Nina the following year.
It seems its the CP El Nino's that have more chance of going multi year.
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7 hours ago, joggs said:
All I know is it was one of the biggest let downs ever for me. All the decent sugs and potential we had.
Iberian high is here to rule I fear
It's been the same every winter now almost uninterrupted since the record breaking basin wide Super Nino of 2015/16.
That Super Nino seemed to mark a big step change away from a reasonable chance of cold and to frequently mild, very often for weeks on end too.
Apart from 2017/18 with some cold snaps and the BFTE and to a lesser degree 2020/21 the theme has been dominated by mild and the dreaded winter killer Iberian heights
Also of note is how all of the big summer heat spikes also coincidentally started in 2015 as well.
That Super Nino certainly has caused something and coldies better hope the recent Strong to almost Super Nino event hasn't pushed us up another level to almost constant above average temps with excessive heat in summer as well.
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Wonder if its the same thing that has stalled the descent of the new WQBO.
It hasn't moved since it appeared back in October, very unusual for the WQBO which usually descends unhindered.
Maybe we could see a failure of the WQBO this time around.
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Think we briefly went easterly on the 8th, the same day some of us saw the only snow of the month
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Surprised we only got to the red +2.5 to +3.5 considering the mildness this month. Was expecting the top of the scale to come true
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Looks like we are going to have to wait yet another year to break the long streak since the last negative mean CET Feb.
Will we ever see another negative CET Feb again the way this particular month is warming up
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It was the month to look forward to if you like mild and wet LOL
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You may as well say the 4 seasons are now more like the following
- Winter now last week of Dec to first week of Feb (Down to 7 weeks)
- Spring 2nd week Feb to 1st week May (Still around 13 weeks)
- Summer 2nd week May to 3rd week Sep (Now up to 19 weeks)
- Autumn last week Sep to 3rd week Dec (Still around 13 weeks)
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By my calculations we get
- Anything above around 0C to 9.9C for 29th secures 2nd position so I think this one is definitely in the bag if we fail to beat 1779
- If we get exactly 10C we equal 1779 to 3 decimal places at 7.871C
- We need to see a 10.1C or more for the 29th to beat the record
- 10.1C would see a Feb 24 mean of 7.874C, a new record by 0.003C
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My own preferences on how to rank is snowiest, followed by coldest then driest with the wettest winters ranked lowest.
This means assuming the 21st century winters start with 1999/00 as the bulk of that winter is after the start of 2000 then I rank them as follows
Cold and snowy to varying degrees
1st 2009/10 Cold and at times rather snowy throughout all 3 winter months, especially 2nd half Dec 09 to 1st half Jan 10
2nd 2010/11 Dec 10 ensures this one takes 2nd position in my list for the deepest covering of snow I have ever witnesses in my entire life
3rd 2008/09 A mostly cold and dry winter but with notable snow in 1st half Feb 09 and a bit of snow in Dec 08 as well. Early snow in Oct and again in Nov 08 gets this one off to an early start
4th 2000/01 Although it takes till Christmas 2000 to get going it is very episodic after this with on/off snowy snaps and spells right up into Mar 01
5th 2017/18 Occasional cold and snowy snaps until the main event arrives at the end of Feb 18 and the BFTE. Even get a decent covering off the mini BFTE in March 18 too
6th 2005/06 A chilly winter overall with snow mainly late Dec 05 as well as Feb and Mar 06
7th 2012/13 Takes until mid Jan 13 to get going but it is on and off right until early Apr 13. The best month was actually the March of 2013
Snowy snaps (Mix of cold and not so cold winters)
8th 2002/03 A mixed winter overall but enough snowy episodes to rank it fairly highly for a 21st century winter. Early and late Jan 03 are the most notable events
9th 2020/21 The last of the winters that features any significant or anything I could call a decent snowy snap or spell. 2nd week Feb 21 is the main event for me
10th 2014/15 The least snowy winter that features anything I could class as a cols snap or spell that produces more than a single day of snow. Late Jan 15 to early Feb 15 the main brief snowy snaps
11th 2022/23 A cold spell with no snow was the only highlight here in Dec 22. What a waste of a cold spell but ranks this winter above the rest for featuring a prolonged cold spell
Mostly Dry (Mix of mild or average)
12th 2018/19 The highest ranked of my more boring dry winters. This was the most interesting of the dry winters with the Feb 19 "heatwave"
13th 2004/05 2004/05 was a let down. Generally quite dry but the only cold setup late in Feb 05 was also a let down as well. Very little snow to speak of off this colder spell
14th 2016/17 One of two very boring winters with 2021/22 equally as boring as this one. 2016/17 for me was slightly less bad as it did a least have some chillier days in Jan 17 and again early Feb 17.
15th 2021/22 As above but generally more depressing so ranked below 2016/17
Wet Mixed
16th 2003/04 2003/04 was the "best" of this group of winters but the very mild spells within it dragged this one way down the list unfortunately
17th 2011/12 Another winter that was let down badly by the general mildness. Only early Feb 12 was decent but the rest pulled this one down a lot
18th 2001/02 Only Dec 01 saves this winter from ending up in the 20's in ranking. Jan and Feb 02 were awful
19th 2007/08 Nothing really saves this winter much apart from a couple of very brief cold snaps
20th 1999/00 Mld Dec 99 was the only good part of this winter. The rest was just mild and boring and at times wet.
Wet Mild (Horror show winters)
21st 2023/24 2023/24 as it is basically over now ranks for me as the least bad of the bottom 5. This is purely because it is the only one of these winters where I have seen settling snow, even if very briefly in all 3 main winter months (Dec 2nd to 3rd 2023, Jan 18th 2024 and Feb 8th 2024). Otherwise a mild horror show and very wet.
22nd 2006/07 Another mild wet horror show winter and the last one where I see any temporary covering of snow that lasts more than a day. This mostly comes in the late Jan 07 to early Feb 07 period. The rest of the winter is mild, wet and devoid of any snow.
23rd 2019/20 A slushy excuse of a very brief covering of snow on Feb 27th 2020 is the only bit of winter I see in this extended autumn mild wet horror show that moves this winter above the two worst ones
24th 2013/14 A storm fest and a complete waste of a winter. Not excessively mild but never cold and generally very wet throughout
25th 2015/16 Had to put 2015/16 at the bottom of the pile, what a vile winter overall. Dec 15 was a total horror show of a "winter" month that was warmer than many spring and autumn months. Missed out on the Jan 16 snow as well.
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35 minutes ago, A Winter's Tale said:
2018/19 - Cold and snowy with episodes of cold and wintry weather from late November to early April. I recorded six 2 inch + snowfalls (occurring in Dec, Jan x2, Feb, Mar) which is the highest I’ve recorded for a winter. There was a surprise last minute white Christmas and a decent snowy period after mid Jan. The highlight was the Beast from the East 28 Feb/1 Mar with the highest snow depth I’ve recorded (26cm). Combined with low temperatures, wind chill and drifting this ranks as one of the most exceptional weather events I’ve experienced. There was another snowy easterly later in March.
Think this winter might be 2017/18 as the BFTE was end of Feb 2018, not 2019
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23 hours ago, Don said:
I'm beginning to think we maybe starting to see a similar kick upwards into the 10.8-11.4c range where we basically won't deviate far from that bar the odd freak cold month relative to the mean that might still happen at times (see Dec 10, or to a lesser extent Mar 13).
I wouldn't rule it out again as 2024 is already provisionally warmer than both 2022 and 2023, the other 11C CET years on the record and we are also above 2014 as well at this stage.
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For what seems like a big flop and fail of the long range models and the what looks certain to be a top 10 mildest winter on record I have still managed to see settling snow in all 3 winter months.
Dec 2nd into 3rd 2023
Jan 18th 2024
Feb 8th 2024
Can March also deliver at least 1 covering to keep this up I wonder?
Yet colder winters I have not always achieved this
In 2005/06 I got no snow in the Jan of 2006
In 2010/11 I saw no snow in the Feb of 2011
In 2008/09 Jan 2009 was devoid of any snow but was cold
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What is becoming more predictable:
- The polar vortex will sit near its usual Greenland home during Dec to Feb with very few exceptions.
- The Iberian High is a guarantee in winter now
- We get a false hope -NAO during Nov which then just as Dec arrives will turn raging +NAO as soon as we get into Dec
- In summer we either get large amount of -NAO with wet washout summer or we get hot and dry or a summer with extreme heat spikes.
- Spring fast becoming our best chance of snow
- SSWs failing to deliver more often and leaving UK mild rather than cold
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E.N.S.O. Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by SqueakheartLW
sundog Don
Wondering if the switch back to La Nina will bring to an end this extended wetter and generally warmer than average period we've had really since the Nino developed last year.
Maybe we go back to dry just in time for summer.
I'm also not that convinced we'll end up with anything above a weak La Nina either. It seems to be taking it's time to show and those warm anomalies are holding on nicely too.
Maybe Cold Neutral is where we end up by the end of the year.