SqueakheartLW
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Posts posted by SqueakheartLW
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39 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:
Stormiest, wettest Winter for many many years i reck, with slightly above average temps.
Will quieten down by early Feb, with cooler temps and dry, but nowt to get too excited about in terms of proper cold and snow. Quick flip to mild near that month's end and March to be a cracker, v mild
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Hope this puts a jinx on the mild dross we often get and then we can look forward to you getting this wrong and we have the coldest winter for quite a few years, a 2009/10 redux perhaps or another 1995/96 would do fine as well except swapping out the mild weather of January 1996 for the first 20 days of January 2010 instead.
If I wanted a perfect combination of these 2 winters I'd take it as follows
December 2023?
First half of December 1995 followed by Second half of December 2009
January 2024?
First half of January 2010 followed by Second half of January 1996
February 2024?
Have less preferences here as both Februaries saw little snow for me. 2010 had a frontal event early in the month and another one later on in the month. 1996 was cold to start before some snow showers later in the month.
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1 hour ago, username home said:
I see that James Madden from Exacta weather is busy giving the Mirror and Express his usual October/November made up stories.... "600 mile WALL OF SNOW" heading for these shores...
1 hour ago, Methuselah said:Muppet!
27 minutes ago, username home said:Same BS stories this time of year for last decade or so!
I particularly remember one of these headlines in autumn 2013 saying winter 2013/14 would be the COLDEST and SNOWIEST for DECADES.
Think we all know how that one turned out don't we
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Some more decent cold charts appearing in the GFS, GEM and ECM. Unfortunately all of them are over 300 hours away
GFS 18z P03
How about a nice late November Arctic blast to get us started. Would happily take this early start to winter if it turns out to be the teaser for the overall winter pattern.
GFS 18z P14
A nice cold continental feed here would do nicely, especially as it looks like it could be a snow maker with the approaching Atlantic trough.
GFS 00z P14
My favourite of all of the GFS cold options on offer in this selection. A nice early season beasterly here.
GFS 06z P18
Not as good as the opening Arctic northerly but I'd still take this over the usual mild dross we see these days.
GFS 12z P16
A nice cold and frosty option if we can't have one of the more snowy ones above.
GFS 12z P26
Another variation on the cold and frosty theme if we don't get the first one.
GEM 12z P20
GEM only had 1 decent option between the 00z and the 12z and this is it and at least it looks to be quite a decent offering at least with a cold and possibly snowy northerly on offer.
ECM 12z P18
ECM has this northerly on offer to open up and is quite similar to the GEM option above. Are we seeing a common theme here. Is this how November is going to end I wonder.
ECM 12z P22
The much better northerly option of the 2 ECM ones in that it looks more of a set in stone block compared with the first option. I'd take this one to get winter off to a proper start.
ECM 12z P49
ECM's version of cold and frosty here. As this is more or less at the end of the run will this pattern evolve into northern blocking and an extension of the cold or will the usual typical thing happen and the polar vortex will win and turn things mild?
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47 minutes ago, Don said:
I would be more than happy if that forecast came off as January and early February are better (on average) for decent cold outbreaks/snowfalls IMO than December.
January and February as you say are better for getting cold outbreaks but February isn't always so good in the snowmelt department as the sun is getting a bit too strong.
If you can get decent cold in December I find that better than February with the much weaker sun meaning snow sticks around like in December 2010 for example.
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24 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:
What are the chances of snow on 3rd December to get me out of driving to my aunt's in Hampshire for lunch? She's not the best chef unfortunately.
CFS which stands for Can't Forecast Snow is showing on it's 4 most recent 1 monthly runs that there's quite a good chance of cold on this day with a snow chance quite possible
00z
00z shows a nice easterly flow but the uppers aren't anything special so a bit of a question mark here but maybe things could firm up a bit more or the cold could upgrade before then.
06z
06z here shows another easterly so we are at 50% chance of an easterly on this day already but snow chances here probably almost zero as it looks like a dry easterly. Maybe some frost and ice for you here to cancel the day.
12z
12z is the zonal option here of the 4 we have so if you need an excuse to get out of it then you could day it's raining too much or you could claim that you have been flooded and can't come.
18z
18z is probably the option you would want to bank on to cancel this trip. It looks the snowiest of the 4 options available.
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Here's the coldest charts from each of today's 12z runs from GFS, GEM and ECM to get us warmed up nicely or should I really say cooled down ready for winter 2023/24 with some late November cold shots.
GFS 12z P15
GEM 12z P05
ECM 12z P19
Take your pick, a nice Scandi high and an easterly, A Greeny/Iceland high with a northerly or a close to UK high with a cold NE wind.
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55 minutes ago, Shillitocettwo said:
Here's my current thinking...
December 2023 - Not quite 2015 territory but still 2nd warmest with near incessant low pressure systems and storms barrelling in from the Atlantic and south-westerly fetches, which will deliver the first ever 20.C plus day in UK at a staggering 20.1.C. CET 8.6.C and EWP 126mm.
January 2024- This one will break records too, overall a CET of 8.0.C and a very similar Atlantic dominated pattern. A bit less soggy than December at 75mm.
February 2023- Finally something that behaves a bit more like Winter with the incessant Atlantic lows giving way to ridging and even a decent cold week mid month. Some snow as this breaks down with a CET an above average yet feels cold of 5.1.C
If you want proper cold you'll have to wait until March where a nasty SSW event brings a proper chill down from Siberia and the lowest CET of the year at 3.8.C
I most certainly hope this doesn't come to pass
Dec 1868 = 7.2C Jan 1869 = 5.6C Feb 1869 = 7.5C Winter 1868/69 = 6.77C
Dec 2023 = 8.6C Jan 2024 = 8.0C Feb 2024 = 5.1C Winter 2023/24 = 7.23C
What could be worse than totally smashing the mildest winter on the CET record by a big margin
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10 hours ago, TROY said:
Looking ahead to winter, one thing is for sure with the sea temps being so much above normal, any marginal snow/rain events will bring rain. So we can look forward to mainly mild or warm spells with nil snow and probably little frost in the ground.
I'd like to see what you have to say next spring once we've passed winter. Perhaps you may supply us all with the winning lottery numbers for next week
LOL
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2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:
looks like a downgrade to what was shown on the October run
Do I see that dreaded word
DOWNGRADE
there?
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Any Novembers with snow events or early tastes of winter within them so as follows:
1993
1996
2001
2005
2010
2017
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1 hour ago, Jacob said:
Does this mean better chances of snow in winter?
In theory it should be better for our snow chances if we get those warm anomalies away from NINO 1+2 and to a lesser extent NINO 3 as well but knowing how things are for us in the UK these days any kind of ENSO won't make a blind bit of difference anymore.
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On 31/10/2023 at 02:04, cheese said:
Our biggest fall of Nov/Dec 2010 was on the 1st of December. The streamer that had affected South Yorkshire moved north during the morning and gave us about 6 inches of snow (on top of the snow we already had) before dissipating in the afternoon. Leeds was in total chaos & all buses in the city were cancelled. We ended up with about a foot of snow, the deepest since 1995.
That was the same streamer that overnight 30th November into 1st December 2010 gave me 16 inches of snow, the deepest fall I have seen in my entire life and this snow including any melting took until 2nd week of January 2011 before the last traces of this finally melted.
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5 hours ago, Metwatch said:
It would just be our typical rotten luck in the UK that we are in the middle of the biggest -50% or more region in the entire world
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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:
Metoffice update
In other words an average winter expected
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5 minutes ago, MP-R said:
The SSW that winter may have been what spelled curtains for the second half of the season. Up until that point it was generally a good winter.
It is known that -AO and especially -NAO just before and during the SSW is a bad setup to have. The SSW will very likely flip the pattern to +AO and +NAO if this happens.
The opposite is also true in many cases too.
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Volcanic eruptions found to dampen Indian Ocean El Niño events for up to 8 years
PHYS.ORG
Volcanic eruptions occurring in tropical regions (23°N/S of the equator) have been linked to abrupt disruption of global-scale climate cycles in the Indian Ocean over the last 1 million years in...Here's a good read for you all. Consider this one in regards to that big volcanic eruption we saw in the tropical Pacific last year.
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1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:
I think that solution is already out of the question given we’re looking at a potentially record breaking strong SPV during early November following a significant ramping up.
I'd rather have a strong PV in the autumn as most years see it weaken in the winter if this happens.
When we've had a weak PV in the autumn it seems to have a habit of suddenly going to PV of doom status once winter arrives.
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13 hours ago, Uncertainty said:
There are 3 solid weeks of Ural blocking preceding that rather remarkable ec 46 stratospheric temp anomaly. If the former manifests the latter could too. Easy to see then how the long time seasonal model prediction of blocking this winter could actually occur. We look east / ne with baited breath…
What a chart btw! Anomaly shows how unusual it is to have a warming forecast in early dec…
We may even have time for a decent warming early December that slows the vortex right down but a reversal might not be a likely outcome this early but then could pave the way for a major warming in January or February that destroys the vortex.
Maybe there is still some hope for this winter after all and the payback for both El Nino and EQBO in combination could deliver once again like it has done so many times in the past. My analysis in the ENSO thread a few weeks back did show El Nino and EQBO had the coldest winter signal of all ENSO and QBO combinations.
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14 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
Nope, it's the other way around.
A more energised jet stream allows bigger peaks and deeper troughs compared to a more sluggish jet stream which is why we tend to see the jet stream be a lot more "wobbly" in winter and much "straighter" during summer. Stronger jet streams lead to stronger anticyclonic wave breaking events.I'm sure that when the jet is strong it typically gets much flatter.
The winters of 2013/14 and 2019/20 both had a strong and flat zonal flow. Many times the jet got up to 200mph. The flat, zonal jet had more energy due to the stronger polar vortex and there was little to no amplification of the jet.
The same principle applies in rivers where the fast flowing parts are generally fairly straight whilst the slow areas have meanders.
In contrast winters of 2009/10 and 2012/13 had a much slower and therefore less energetic jet stream. Both of these winters featured frequent amplification and northern blocking as a result due to a weaker polar vortex.
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One thing that seems to be interesting in regards to the polar vortex is how the vortex right up at 1hpa seems to be struggling to get going properly and has been weaker than average really for the entire vortex season so far
Wonder if this will have an overall effect of weakening the vortex at all levels in the weeks to come and increase the chances of blocking episodes and a colder winter
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36 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:
it can though just look at winter 2015/16 also the last strong El Nino event
12 minutes ago, Don said:True but 2015/16 was a Super Nino, whereas the current one will most likely be a moderate or strong event, but not super.
6 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:ok try 2006/7 instead weak/moderate event
Do note that both of these events were EP El Nino's which are typically associated with mild winters. Also both years were strong WQBO as well.
2023/24 isn't such a good match. The Nino is moderate / strong and is predicted to be more CP than both of those winters. Also a moderate to strong EQBO is expected.
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19 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:
These were (and for us public still are) the latest EC46 anomalies for the week 6-13 Nov at the time they wrote that forecast (with the range of that MetO forecast having been out to 15 Nov when it was first published yesterday; the wording has been kept today) - you can see how they might have got the impression that there could be easterlies:
The most important one for me for our SSW chances is all those indications of above average heights over Scandi and the Urals region. May they stick around there for a while even if we pay the price ourselves with troughs getting stuck around the UK and several weeks of wet weather.
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3 hours ago, Chesil View said:
Well done Squeakheart. Brilliant and pretty accurate too.
LOL
Don't you want to have a go at them all and come up with different ones to mine?
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Just for a bit of fun I've tried to think up of winter theme names for what the weather models could stand for. I've taken these from meteociel and added any others I know of too.
For anyone else who wishes to try this the rules are that you can only use 1 word per letter and the words have to be in the same order as the letters of the model and cannot be rearranged. Also the result has to be a phrase or sentence that makes sense.
ARPEGE, PEARP, GFS, ICON, ECMWF, UKMO, JMA, DWD, GEM, CMC, NAVGEM,
NASA, CFS, NOAA, CEP and CANSIPS are used here.
ARPEGE Always Rainy Precipitation Expected Going Everywhere
PEARP Predicted Everywhere All Rainy Precipitation
GFS Generally Fabricated Snow
ICON Icy Cold . . . . . . . . . . Or Not
ECMWF Expected Continuous Mild Weather Forecasts
UKMO United Kingdom Mild Outcomes
JMA Just Marginal Action (On wrong side of marginal of course)
DWD Dreary Wintertime Drizzle
GEM General Expected Mildness
CMC Classic Marginal Cold (We wish)
NAVGEM Not Anticipated Very Good Expected Mild
NASA. Never Anticipate Snow Again
CFS. Can't Forecast Snow
NOAA Never Overestimate Anticipated Action (Will be cold rain)
CEP Close Expected Parameters (Not quite cold enough for snow)
CANSIPS Can Anticipate No Snow In Precipitation Scenarios
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Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I'll take this to open up December
BANK !!!