SqueakheartLW
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Posts posted by SqueakheartLW
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For what seems like a big flop and fail of the long range models and the what looks certain to be a top 10 mildest winter on record I have still managed to see settling snow in all 3 winter months.
Dec 2nd into 3rd 2023
Jan 18th 2024
Feb 8th 2024
Can March also deliver at least 1 covering to keep this up I wonder?
Yet colder winters I have not always achieved this
In 2005/06 I got no snow in the Jan of 2006
In 2010/11 I saw no snow in the Feb of 2011
In 2008/09 Jan 2009 was devoid of any snow but was cold
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What is becoming more predictable:
- The polar vortex will sit near its usual Greenland home during Dec to Feb with very few exceptions.
- The Iberian High is a guarantee in winter now
- We get a false hope -NAO during Nov which then just as Dec arrives will turn raging +NAO as soon as we get into Dec
- In summer we either get large amount of -NAO with wet washout summer or we get hot and dry or a summer with extreme heat spikes.
- Spring fast becoming our best chance of snow
- SSWs failing to deliver more often and leaving UK mild rather than cold
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Any of you remember me making this comment to the thread on the 9th Feb 2024 about potential top 10 mildest winter on record and suggested if we went ridiculously mild the record could be under threat but I categorically ruled it out as it looked almost impossible for us to beat the record.
On 09/02/2024 at 21:46, SqueakheartLW said:It isn't just how mild Feb 2024 has started but another thing of note is how mild the winter is overall.
This is the latest snapshot of where winter 2023/24 stands compared with the top 10 mildest winters overall at this stage in the winter (8th Feb). At present after allowing for the couple of colder days we have just had we are just scraping into the top 10 at this stage, pushing 1989/90 out of the top 10.
If we do indeed see mean CET's hovering in the 6C to 7C range for the rest of the month then a top 10 finish will almost be a certain done deal. If we go ridiculously mild again then could a new record mildest be a threat?
If we averaged at 9C for the rest of the month we would set a new mildest winter on the CET by just 0.003C over 2015/16 but I can't see us getting an average of 9C for the rest of the month.
The lowest value we can achieve whilst getting 10th mildest would need to be an average of 6.21C between 9th and 29th. Anything below this would see us fail to set a top 10.
Well based on the latest updated data to this it is now looking increasingly likely that I could end up eating my words as my initial suggestion we would go ridiculously mild has come to pass. We only needed a CET mean of 9.0C between 9th and 29th Feb to beat the all time winter mildest mean record set in 2015/16 of 6.762C
Our provisional values of 6.8, 8.1, 7.2, 5.5, 7.7, 9.5, 13.7, 10.1, 10.7, 12.0 and 9.7 for 9th to 19th average out at 9.182C which is slightly higher than the required 9.0C so far. This means we are currently very much on track to set a new mildest CET mean winter.
The latest updated table is below and shows how 2023/24 has climbed up the list since my update on 9th Feb.
9th Feb table 20th Feb table
vs
It is clear to see how much we have moved up the top 10 provisionally and how much we have closed down on the top spot. We were -1.457C behind 2015/16 provisionally on 8th Feb. Now we are only -0.478C behind, a cutting of the gap by almost 1C in just 10 days. If we keep this up the record is easily going to be broken.
An all time Feb mean looks under serious threat too but will the more average or cooler conditions from Friday onwards to see out the month see off the record threat both for Feb 2024 as well as the overall mildest winter record too.
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9 minutes ago, sundog said:
Have to say I'm worried about what the summer has in store for the Northern hemisphere. El Niño lag effect + the background warming etc. Wouldn't be at all surprised for Europe to see its first 50c. With the crazy weather around the globe in 2023. This yr is the one I've been worried about the last number of months.
I my experience summers following an El Nino the previous winter generally don't do too well for prolonged dry or warm weather. Heat spikes maybe but in my experience the summers of these years are poor, especially if they switch rapidly to La Nina. 1995 seems to be the main exception to this rule.
Summers following El Nino winters
1995 - Dry and warm to hot
1998 - Generally cooler and wetter
2004 - Mixed
2005 - Warm and dry
2007 - Total washout
2010 - Generally mixed
2015 - Mixed, wetter than average
2016 - Similar to 2015 but a bit better
2019 - Wet but with short heat spikes
2024 - ??????? (Based on above expecting a wetter than average summer with heat spikes the best chance of anything very warm to hot. If we rapidly transition to a notable La Nina then a 1998 or 2007 repeat could be on the cards)
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Looks like this run is going for yet another warming at the end. Maybe this one will end up a final warming
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Dec 1993 CET 5.5
White Christmas otherwise a mild monthJan 1999 CET 5.5
Widespread band of snow pushed NW to SE on 11th to 12thFeb 1999 CET 5.3
Almost qualifies but was generally a mild month but with cold and at times snowy week in 2nd week of monthJan 2008 CET 6.6
A bit of snow off an easterly early in the month and a brief northerly at the end of the monthFeb 2020 CET 6.3
Mild and wet month but a brief spell of persistent snow at the end of the monthDec 2021 CET 6.4
Brief northerly gave some snow showers at the start of the month. Was about as good as that winter got. Rest was mild.Mar 2023 CET 7.0
Some snow between around 7th and 10th, otherwise a mild month-
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Warmest year for 2024
Maybe but as we are only in Feb it's far too early to say really but based on how the year is starting I wouldn't rule out yet another 11C CET mean year again. Depends if we maintain this ridiculous mild, warm or hot weather throughout the year or not or we do something similar to 2007 where we start well above average then fall away later in the year.
Warmest winter for 2023/24
I think that may be a bit of a long shot now. The early Dec cold and the Jan cold spell I think have probably ruled out us beating the 2015/16 record of 6.762C now with us provisionally running at 6.313C up to 15th Feb and with only 14 more days of official winter to go it would take an average CET mean of 9.24C for the 16th to 29th to beat the previous 6.762C record by 0.001C
Warmest Feb for Feb 2024
This one I feel has the best chance of falling since we are so close right now (Provisionally 8.147C up to 15th) and would only take a running mean of 7.64C for the 16th to 29th to beat the previous 7.9C record by 0.002C
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5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:
7.9c to the 10th
4.1c above the 61 to 90 average
3.2c above the 81 to 10 averageDo note that 7.9C is equal to the mildest February on the CET record from 1779 which was 7.9C
Is this seriously looking to be under threat this year as it currently looks that way
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It isn't just how mild Feb 2024 has started but another thing of note is how mild the winter is overall.
This is the latest snapshot of where winter 2023/24 stands compared with the top 10 mildest winters overall at this stage in the winter (8th Feb). At present after allowing for the couple of colder days we have just had we are just scraping into the top 10 at this stage, pushing 1989/90 out of the top 10.
If we do indeed see mean CET's hovering in the 6C to 7C range for the rest of the month then a top 10 finish will almost be a certain done deal. If we go ridiculously mild again then could a new record mildest be a threat?
If we averaged at 9C for the rest of the month we would set a new mildest winter on the CET by just 0.003C over 2015/16 but I can't see us getting an average of 9C for the rest of the month.
The lowest value we can achieve whilst getting 10th mildest would need to be an average of 6.21C between 9th and 29th. Anything below this would see us fail to set a top 10.
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Depends which side of the country you were on for how good the snow was in 1996. It was great for you living in the west of the UK but over here in the east we only saw snow off the cold blast from the 19th.
I did much better off the December and January snow events in winter 1995/96 and even got more in the March and April than I saw in the February.
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Favourite Februaries
My favourite Februaries from my remembered lifetime. First into a few categories then my top 3 overall below this.
For snow
For snow it has to be 1994, 1996, 2004, 2009 and 2018 for snowy months or decent snowy setups / events during these Februaries.
1st - 2009 for me was the snowiest of these in terms of snow events at least. 4 separate snow events on the 2nd, 5th, 8th and 12th with wintry / snow showers scattered in general between 1st and 13th.
2nd - 2018 was my favourite for the extreme nature of the BFTE but there was also another frontal snow event earlier in the same month too.
3rd- 1994 I recall had 2 frontal snow events as well as snow showers off an easterly too.
4th - 1996 for me had the cold early in the month and the short but potent cold blast from the NE on the 19th that gave whiteout conditions in blizzard like snow showers was amazing to experience.
5th - 2004 was probably my least favourite of my snowy choices but made the list due to getting a bit of snow at least. The main event on the morning of the 28th.
For Variety
For variety it has to go to 1999, 2001, 2012, 2019 and 2021 for a mix of cold / snow and mild or warm
1st - 2019 was very interesting purely for the huge temperature range during that month. Cold enough for severe frosts and snow at the start and warm enough to be like summer by the end of the month. Don't think I've seen such an extreme contrast in a winter month ever before.
2nd - 2001 was interesting for variety as well and generally was a cold start, a mild middle and a cold end. Cold and dry with freezing fog and a little snow early on, then less cold but wet 2nd week. The 3rd week was very mild, dry and sunny from what I recall before the main snowy course came from the 23rd onwards with the best snow event on the evening of the 25th.
3rd - 2012 was similar to 2009 in a tale of two halves. Cold and dry first half then mild and dry 2nd half. Decent frontal snow events on both the 4th and 8th.
4th - 2021 is like a watered down version of 2019 for temperature extremes with the cold a bit longer and the mild spell less warm than 2019 but still interesting non the less. Saw more snow in 2021 as well compared with 2019.
5th - 1999 was a definite classic of wild switches between cold and / or snow and mild and in this month wet. My favourite week of that month has to be from the 6th to the 13th as this was the coldest and snowiest week of that month. Although there were more short lived cold snaps in the month the big switches between the cold and the mild made this month interesting.
For dream synoptics and this only
2005 was only on this list due to the perfect dream cold and snowy synoptics that dominated the period from the 18th through to the end of the month. If only this had delivered on what was showing. Too little real cold to tap into so perfect setup wasted and only looked good on the synoptic charts after a general lack of this kind of setup for years before it.
For cold
This has to go to 2010 and 2013
1st - 2010 for me just takes it over 2013 purely because I saw just a little bit more snow in 2010 to go along with the cold month compared with 2013.
2nd - 2013 for me was very much a cold month wasted. Was a lot of snow potential here but cold, dry and often cloudy doesn't cut it much for me. May as well make use of the cloud and get snow.
My overall top 3 favourite Februaries
1st - 2009 for me is hands down my favourite February due to several snow events as I mentioned above and the prolonged nature of the cold during the first half of that month. The second half was a bit of a let down but at least it was mostly dry with the milder weather and didn't turn into a washout.
2nd - 2019 was my overall second best February month that I can remember. This is purely due to the huge temperature contrasts during this month with the cold and snow at the start and summer like warmth at the end. Even though there was very little snow in the month the way this month panned out made me rate it quite highly.
3rd - 2018 comes 3rd for me due to the Beast from the East event at the end of the month that came after a generally chilly month but not overly cold until this beast came. The very extreme nature of the cold and the snow was what pushed 2018 right up into my top 3 February months.
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Out of all Januaries I can remember I'd say my favourites ones are for a snow lover
2010 (1st 10 days especially)
2013 (2nd half especially)
1996 (Last 10 days)
1997 (First 10 days)
2003 (Early in the month and the toppler at the end of the month)
Other Januaries that at least had a decent frontal snow event or a good day or two of snow showers or were just generally cold months
2015 (Cold zonality at months end)
1999 (12th January frontal snow)
1995 (25th January frontal snow)
2004 (Snow at end of month)
2009 (Cold month)
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Just when it looked like the stratosphere front had gone back to normal zonality and boring again suddenly warmings start to appear at the end of both GFS and GEM models. The warmest ones are below and every single member that goes out to +384h has some degree of warming at the end
GEM
Can we get these down to T+0 and will it finally remove the vortex for us and with a very quick response can we just about squeeze out another BFTE 2018 repeat?
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6 hours ago, Harry233 said:
January 2017-March 2017 was a very mild spell of weather from memory. It was mildest winter locally for me on record and probably locally for around 80 years. I only one brief cold snap around the 14th-16th January. February 2017 had a very springlike day on the 20th. Maximum of 14.C and very sunny, I remember a lot of the flowers were in full bloom by the end of February even though it was quite wet and dull. March was very pleasant for much of the month as well and it did have a couple of very warm days towards the end of the month.
Winter 2016/17 was unusual in that the mildest weather was in Scotland and N Ireland whilst England and Wales were closer to average with some colder than average weather in January in the south. All caused by a semi persistent Sceuro high setup that kept Scotland and N Ireland in SW winds off the Atlantic whilst England and Wales were closer to the high and on occasions got a colder continental feed in January especially.
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30 minutes ago, on the coast said:
When was the last time we had a severe storm pass through followed by another one a day later?
Don't know the last time but I do remember back end of October 2000.
On the 29th we had gusts around 70mph from one storm. This was followed by a slight lull before the most severe storm of the autumn and for many years came in during the early hours of the 30th which brought destructive winds with widespread gusts over southern half of UK around 90mph and snow in northern England too.
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6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
My attention has been on the very short term recently, so was quite surprised on viewing the GFS and ECM this eve, hinting at scandi heights by the end of Feb, thanks to heights building north from our south and amplifying the jet significantly, ridging NE, with siberian heights lurking to the east ready to join hands.
Quite a marked change from what was appearing to be a more flatter atlantic pattern. Its higgly plausible and fits in with other signsls being seen for Feb attributed to AAM, Mountain torques and MJO cycle discussed by others with far more knowledge than me, but the models might be a little hasty with such developments.
Might we exchange a arctic blast for a long fetch southwesterly and then a long drawn easterly, what an odd sequence that would be, but third winter does feel different to many a recent one, prone to sudden abrupt changes.
Don't you mean end of Jan and not end of Feb?
Edit
LOL, guess @damianslawspotted the mistake
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16 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Here we go, next cold chase starts at T+300, according to the gfs.
That's some serious WAA there. Looks very similar to the pattern just before BFTE 2018
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On 07/01/2024 at 23:44, damianslaw said:
Certainly been in a predominantly warm pattern since July 2013, with only the odd blip colder than average month/ season, most notably Dec 2020 - June 2021.
I took note of the unusually southerly jetstream in summer 07, on the back of a run of good summers with northerly jetstream, something kicked in around then, the following winter was very mild though, but it marked an abrupt change.
Winter 88-89 marked a change to very mild / very dry conditions lasting through to Summer 92, there followed a very wet period until Spring 95, followed by very dry and continental for 2 years and from Dec 95 to Jan 97 cold.. a sea change again May 97 to wet and mild...
The current very mild period of 10 plus years is joining close to the length of the May 97 to Summer 08 spell at 11 years bar the odd blip.
Maybe it's about to come to an end then. Maybe passing solar max and entering into the descending odd phase cycle 25 may bring in an increasingly colder period as we approach the on average coldest period of solar min odd to even and the ascending even cycle 26.
The pattern is also seen with other descending odd into ascending even phases too with cold periods congregating around these times.
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21 hours ago, baddie said:
Wouldnt an anti-2003 be interesting?? It would certainly be a terrible year
Anti-2005 an interesting one too, especially the MarchAnti 2003 from memory would lead to the following
Anti January 2003 = Still very much average as the cold and mild spells/snaps cancelled each other out anyway
Anti February 2003 = Would flip from colder and drier to milder and wetter
Anti March 2003 = Don't particularly remember this month
Anti April 2003 = We would lose that nice warm spell I remember
Anti May 2003 = I think this month would improve in it's anti form
Anti June 2003 = Flip from warm and wet to cool and dry
Anti July 2003 = Flip from warm and mixed to cool and mixed
Anti August 2003 = Flip from very warm and dry to cool and wet
Anti September 2003 = Would flip from warm start and chilly end to cool start and very warm end. Would also become wetter overall
Anti October 2003 = Don't remember this month much
Anti November 2003 = Don't remember this month much
Anti December 2003 = Generally would flip from mild and wet to cold and dry
Anti 2005
Anti January 2005 - Flips to cold first half and milder second half
Anti February 2005 - Flips to cold first half and milder second half
Anti March 2005 - Flips to warm first half and cold second half
Anti April 2005 - Generally average but has late cold snap instead of an early one
Anti May 2005 - Becomes cooler and more unsettled but with late warm snap and a cold early snap
Anti June 2005 - Flips to cool and unsettled with a warm dry final week
Anti July 2005 - Flips to hot start and end with a cooler unsettled period in the middle
Anti August 2005 - Generally remains close to average
Anti September 2005 - Flips to chilly start with a hotter spell later on
Anti October 2005 - Flips to hot start with a general cooling trend as the month goes on. Arctic blast at the end of the month
Anti November 2005 - Flips to Arctic northerlies dominate first half. Mild second half
Anti December 2005 - Flips to cold and snowy until around Christmas. Very mild final week.
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On 04/01/2024 at 16:34, baddie said:
Anti-2013
Part 1 (January-June)
January - Northerly winds brought cold and dry first and last week, sandwiching a mild, wet and windy middle. There were some very cold nights at the start, with -12.7c in Norfolk on the 7th. The 16th/17th were exceptionally mild, with a high of 16.8c in London on the 16th, which is the highest since 2003. the 12th/13th were extremely windy, with gusts of over 80mph in localised spots. The end of the month was cold and snowy, with depths of over 6 inches in most parts on the 29th and 30th, however it instantly turned milder on the 31st. Due to the mild 2nd and 3rd week, the month was milder than average, with a CET of 5.2c. The month was wetter than average, with up to 150% of the average rainfall, with some places in London seeing double the average. Sunshine totals were above average, mostly due to the first 8 days, with 150% of average totals making it the 2nd sunniest on record
February - A mild month, but not exceptionally so (CET 6c). The first half was was anticyclonic and dry, the second half unsettled. The first few days were quite cold at night, especially in the South and East. It turned milder on the 5th, and then very mild and sunny on the 11th-13th, with maximum temperatures of 15c in many places. The 14th-19th was cold and wet, then milder, but unsettled from the 20th to the end. The highest temperature of the month was 16.6C in Heathrow on the 13th and the lowest -8.5c at Santon Downham on the 4th. Rainfall totals were slightly above average, but mostly during the second half. Sunshine totals were well above average in the South, but dull from York northwards
March - Extremely mild (CET 10c), and the mildest on record in most parts of the country, and the first March ever to record a CET of 10c. This beats 1957s record by almost 1c. Maximum temperatures were 5-6c above average in most parts. The month started wet and windy, with some strong winds on the 4th. The 5th was the only day to record a maximum temperature below 10c, which itself is the average of March. Southerlies brought in a week of warm and sunny conditions from the 6th, culminating at highs of 21.8c in Heathrow on the 11th. The 13th and 14th were briefly wetter, but still warm and bright. After a short break to near average temperatures, the warm and sunny Southerlies returned on the 20th, with record breaking maximas on the 22nd-25th, with 25c recorded somewhere each day, and 26.7c in Kent on the 25th. The warm sunshine remained on the 26th and 27th, with 20c still being reached. The last 4 days turned much more humid, but remained warm. The Easter weekend was very thundery, with some severe ones in the South on Easter Sunday (31st), and in the NE on Good Friday (29th). As a result of this being an extremely Southerly month, this was the sunniest March on record, with 190 hours of sunshine (Typical for July, not March!!!). rainfall was near average, due to the first and last few days. Wow, this month defeated March 2012
April - Warm (Despite the snow in the 4th week) and wet (CET 9.6c). Unusually this was colder than March, but April was still almost 1c warmer than average, despite the snow event on the. For the first 12 days, the southerly winds that made March so warm continued to dominate. There were some very warm days at the start of the month: the daytime maximum was 23.7c on the 2nd in London, and 24.1c on the 4th in Kent. However, the first few days was quite humid and changeable, with frequent showers. There were torrential thunderstorms between the 9th and 12th, with some areas seeing the amount of rainfall you would expect for the whole of April, in the first 12 days. The weather changed however on the 13th as winds turned to a more Northerly direction. The 14th-16th marked a return to average maximas and frosty nights. The second half turned much cooler by both day and night, but remained changeable. After brief mild and wet conditions on the 19th/20th, the northerlies eventually brought in late season snow on the 23rd-25th, as maximas were over 15c colder than the month previous. Heavy thundersnow on the 23rd, resulted in 5cm of lying snow in the Midlands and Eastern areas on the 24th. This replenished again into the 25th, with even more fresh snow. A low pressure front bringing rain took place on the 26th, and temperatures returned to average values to end the month. April ended up wetter than average, with some areas in the SE seeing twice the average rainfall, while it was mostly dry in the West. Sunshine totals were close to or slightly above average. By mid-month, nature was already a month ahead of where it should be
May - Warm again (CET 12.8c), and the warmest since 2008. The 10 days was cool and changeable. The Bank Holiday was the coldest since 1978, with a maxima below 10c. The rest of the month was mainly Southerly dominated, with plenty of settled and bright weather. The 11th-16th were warm and sunny, but a surge of hot air moved through on the 17th, with highest temperatures at 25.8c in Norfolk, then 26.6c in London on the 18th. There were severe thunderstorms that evenings, and the warmth retreated by the 19th, but came back again on the 22nd. The highest temperature of the month was 27.6c in Leicestershire on the 24th. It turned instantly wetter on the 25th and 26th, but sunny again on the 27th. The last 4 days were mixed; Warm, sunny and dry on the 28th and 29th, then Cool and wet on the 30th and 31st. Rainfall totals ended up around or slightly above average overall, with Sunshine totals around average in most places
June - Very Wet, but not as wet as 2007 or 2012. It was warmer than average but not exceptionally so, with a CET of 15c. The first 10 days were quite SW dominated and was very mixed, with warm and sunny days, and persistant rain on some other days. The 11th-15th turned more settled at times. However, thunderstorms arrived on the 15th and 16th, and some downpours were very heavy, resulting in local flash flooding. The 17th-19th were much cooler, and rainfall arrived in the form on bands, as a result of W winds. High pressure briefly arrived on the 20th, and resulted in temperatures on the rise. The solistice was a clear, sunny day with maximum temperatures at 26c widely, and 28c in London. The next 3 days remained hot and sunny, with the highest temperatures of the month (and year) culminating at 30.8c at Heathrow on the 23rd. Thundery breakdowns occured late on the 24th, and many were severe, causing disruption and flash flooding. A return to cooler and wetter conditions was marked on the 25th, and this was a teaser for July. The rest of the month was changeble, barring a clear warm, sunny day on the 28th. It also turned increasingly windy by the 29th an 30th, with some gusts of up to 60mph in some localised spots in the NW. The 30th was a cool, wet and windy day, with the maximum temperature being just 14c. The month ended up wetter than average, with around 150% of average rainfall in the South, and twice the average rainfall in the East. The North and West reported close to or below average rainfall. Sunshine was around average, but brighter in the East compared to the WestJust thought I'd add this one to your anti 2013. Anti 2013 was most famous for it's Sudden Stratospheric COOLING event
After the biggest Canadian Warming on record in Anti Autumn 2012 that destroyed the polar vortex before it had got fully up to speed leaving record breaking warm temps in the stratosphere during Anti late November 2012 and through Anti December 2012 it was looking odds on for a 1962/63 winter repeat with the record breaking 60N 10hpa zonal easterlies for this time period but like the usual bad luck we get in the UK we saw a substantial record breaking Sudden Stratospheric COOLING event get going at the end of Anti December 2012, peaking early Anti January 2013 so what looked like a promising cold winter for the coldies all went to pieces during Anti January 2013 and the rest of the period from Mid Anti January 2013 to early Anti April 2013 was noting short of a mild bore fest with the mildest of the weather occurring during Anti March 2013 with some record breaking warmth in the last 10 days of the month especially.
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On 01/01/2024 at 18:35, East Lancs Rain said:
July. Exceptionally cool at 13.1 CET making it even worse than July 1988. It was particularly cold in the South and East. The first half was cyclonic and was wet, cloudy, and cool everywhere. It was more settled in the second half, particularly in the north. There was a notable cool spell towards the end of the month. There was a high of just 13.3°C at Santon Downham (Suffolk) on the 23rd, and a minimum of -11C at London St James Park overnight on the 26-27, and a maximum of just 14.1°C at Gravesend on the 27th. The passing through of the cold front came with some severe flooding. 99 mm of rain was recorded at Belfast on the 28th. On average rainfall was 129%, but it was very wet in East Anglia. It was a dull month with just 63% of average (the sixth dullest July since 1929). Morecambe Bay in Cumbria recorded just 11.9 hours of sunshine from 1st to 7th July.
Are you sure of a minimum of -11C in July. That would seriously smash all records?
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If I split this one up into 3 categories, Worst Year, Worst Seasons and Worst Months we have
WORST YEAR - 2015
2015 for me was the worst. Did have the cold zonality and little bit of snow late Jan and early Feb but the rest of the year was poor for me. Was either wet, cloudy or cool (summer) or mild (winter). The worst was November and December 2015, what a mild wet horror show those 2 months were.
WORST SEASONS
Winters
2011/12 - Apart from early Feb 2012 the rest of the winter was boring
2013/14 - Mild wet horror show
2015/16 - As 2013/14
2016/17 - Boring as hell
2018/19 - Mild and dry is boring for me. The Feb heatwave did provide some interest though as well as the brief snow events of mid Jan to early Feb
Springs
2015 - Boring
2017 - Very unremarkable for me
Summers
2011 - Cool and unremarkable
2012 - Washout
2015 - Washout
Autumns
2011 - Apart from the late Sep/early Oct heatwave the rest was cloudy, mild and boring
2015 - A chilly Sep that gave way to wet and windy as we went through Oct and Nov
2018 - Disappointing after the interesting Jan to early Aug period
2019 - Washout
WORST MONTHS
Feb 2011 - Washout
April 2012 - Washout
June 2012 - Washout
July 2012 - Washout
May 2013 - Cool and Wet
Dec 2013 - Wet and a Storm Fest
Feb 2014 - As Dec 2013
Aug 2014 - Cool drab month
June 2015 - Wet
July 2015 - Wet (Except heat spike)
Sep 2015 - Chilly
Nov 2015 - Mild wet horror show
Dec 2015 - Even more extreme version of Nov 2015 mildness
Dec 2016 - Boring
Feb 2017 - Boring
Aug 2017 - Cool and Wet
Dec 2018 - Mild and Boring
Oct 2019 - Washout
Nov 2019 - Washout
Dec 2019 - Washout
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Come on, we have to get GEM P14 in please
At least it's not +384h away like these sorts of charts usually are but this one is only 10 days away. Can it end this way?
Also wanted to show you this freaky GEM 00z chart for +384h away. The 2m temp min is mind boggling for Scunthorpe and would break our overnight min no doubt
P14 is showing -17.7C as a 2m temp min on P14
However the 500mb and 850mb charts for this member at the same stage are nothing special considering this
Some serious inversion cold going on there I would say
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Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by SqueakheartLW
kold weather
Don
I wouldn't rule it out again as 2024 is already provisionally warmer than both 2022 and 2023, the other 11C CET years on the record and we are also above 2014 as well at this stage.