SqueakheartLW
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Posts posted by SqueakheartLW
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Some interest here for later in the month with below average zonal winds showing throughout all levels. Maybe El Nino and EQBO finally kicking in.
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26 minutes ago, Don said:
You do know that CFS stands for 'Can't Forecast Snow' don't you?!
C omplete
F abricated
S ***
C omputer
F antasy
S cenarios
C learly
F antasized
S now
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25 minutes ago, Don said:
It was dry and frosty at times (particularly January), but with very little in the way of wintry weather, so a tedious season, a bit like those winters of 1991/92 and 1992/93.
Very true!
Wasn't 2016/17 the winter where we got that bizarre day where surface temps were below freezing all day whilst the 850hpa temps were nearly +5C on a continental SE wind?
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11 hours ago, Don said:
The only snow event I experienced during winter 2014/15 was an un-forecast event early on the 4th February, but it had all gone by lunchtime. However, it was an improvement on the previous year!
The main thing I remember about 2014/15 was the Eurasian October snow advance index, which created lots of excitement in the run up to winter, but ultimately failed to come off as being anything of note. Heard very little about the October Eurasian snow advance index since!
10 hours ago, Don said:I remember the snow event for the Midlands northwards on Boxing Day. Not in the south though, instead having a not overly cold rain event!
The Boxing Day event although it looked good on the forecast melted almost as fast as it had come. By the next morning you wouldn't have even known there had been any snow the previous evening. Something similar happened in January 2018 where some snow came overnight on some cold zonality but by the next day there was nothing to see.
The best snow for me was late January / early February 2015 during that winter. Far enough north to benefit from the cold zonality at the end of Jan and also got hit by the early Feb snow as well.
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44 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:
Surprised, was a pretty good fall as far as polar maritime is concerned though it was gone quickly as with nearly all PM episodes (minus January 1984). I believe the video below is from Meath though not 100%.
C3S seasonal models are out now for anyone that wants to check.
Charts | Copernicus
CLIMATE.COPERNICUS.EUParticular interest from the UK Met for November and December...
28 minutes ago, Frigid said:
I'll take that!
Hope this is the start of a fully loaded winter and not one that gets going early then fizzles out by new year.
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36 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
If I'm honest I think winter 2023-24 won't be a million miles away from 2015-16 as we have the niño effect, possibly similar to 2018-19 as well and you can't rule out 2014-15 either. Think the impending winter will be very similar to all of those winters I have mentioned.
2023/24 EQBO expected Mod/Strong El Nino expected
2018/19 WQBO Weak El Nino
2015/16 WQBO Super El Nino
2014/15 EQBO Weak El Nino
I'd probably rule out a 2015/16 or 2018/19 based on different Nino strengths and WQBO as well. 2014/15 is the closest match here with the EQBO but only a Weak El Nino. I do believe 2014/15 was the least mild of these 3 winters also.
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21 hours ago, MattStoke said:
Now level with last year.
Last year it was the CET maxes that got us the record 11.15C mean year. This year it has been more about the higher CET mins holding the mean up.
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A rather cold easterly showing up here on the latest GEM run - Member P11 at +360 hours away
Those are rather cold uppers and 2m temp maxes for October
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32 minutes ago, RJBingham said:
Upgrade for winter on this one
Until next week
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2 hours ago, Don said:
Sixth winter update from Gav's Weather Vids focusing on September data!
Uh oh. A big further swing in favour of a milder than average winter showing up on the swingometer at the start of the 7th update then.
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23 hours ago, Methuselah said:
But look what happened in 2018-19: The background signals, the SSW, the models, pundits and the Met. were all suggesting a 'whiteout winter'. And what did we get? 21C maxes in February!
2018/19 was WQBO by the time winter arrived, it was also descending solar, roughly in the same place as 2006/07 and was also just weak Nino too.
The SSW was the big let down for this winter as it failed to propagate down like around 1/3 SSW's.
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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
More flesh on the bones of the ECM seasonal from yesterday, now it is out on Meteociel, first 500 hPa height anomalies:
Surface pressure anomalies:
I have to say these don’t look a very strong signal in our part of the NH - the most positive height anomalies are on the Pacific side. Makes me wonder if actually there is quite a mix of solutions in there and the average ends up looking a bit meh?
Looks like December has best chance of cold there with higher pressure to the east or NE for continental cold chances
january mild and wet NW, drier SE
February ......... TOTAL WASHOUT !!!
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53 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
I remember winter 2006-07 and that winter was basically a write off except for the deep cold spell we had at the beginning of February, however all the variables need to be considered on this.
Winter 2006/07 was only weak Nino, was strong WQBO and in descending solar cycle phase so not a good comparison to this up coming winter really.
Good news for coldies in that way at least.
12 minutes ago, Don said:No, that chart does not look good at all and if it came off, probably something akin to winter 2013/14??
I hope not. At least 2013/14 was neutral cold ENSO and also strong WQBO too like 2006/07 was. Hope for us at least.
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The most important thing when it comes to El Nino is how quickly NINO 1+2 is cooling down now
Compare this with NINO 3.4 and 4 which are quite stable and could rise a bit further
I can see all of the signs here of a current switching from EP to CP event. Maybe this could counter the +IOD, especially as it looks like a west based +IOD with the warm anomalies very focused on east Africa. MJO region 1 is on the east Africa coast region with 7 and 8 in the west Pacific.
These look like the areas with the warmest anomalies in the MJO regions and isn't 7, 8 and 1 where we want the most forcing for northern blocking and cold winters.
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We have our first snow spikes showing up on the GFS runs
18z - P25
00z - P17
12z - P06
All of this mention of the mild to warm start to October then later on around mid month we have the slightest chance of a very early taste of winter after the heat. Reminds me somewhat of what happened in October 2012.
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1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:
Persistent mildness and a lack of genuine warmth during the spring lead me to thinking 2023 would perhaps be a more modest but since June we really are making up for it!
Looks like another 11C CET year is well and truly on again after what happened in June and September especially and with how mild October is looking for the first 10 days then could 2022 be under threat?
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2 hours ago, Catacol said:
That really would be a cracker. A proper December event leading to a disrupted January pattern given 2-4 week lead times for impact. It is the sort of thing those looking for a properly cold season would dream of.
But....it is the CFS and it is only October 3. But good eye candy at this very early stage I agree. One day these sorts of things will happen again. Dec 1962 saw a Canadian Warming
CFS won't be showing a Canadian warming at 10hpa. They typically happen lower down at 30hpa or lower in the strat. Not unless this one is predicted to be big enough to reach 10hpa.
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1 hour ago, Frostbite80 said:
Also interesting is how we are already seeing weakening of the vortex predicted high up.
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Boring to me is mild, dry and cloudy in the winter and cool and cloudy or wet in the summer.
December 2018 - In fact most of winter 2018/19 qualifies apart from the little bit of snow in January 2019 as well as the February 2019 heatwave.
Winter 2016/17 - Overall just boring. No snow to speak of, no entertaining windstorms and not a lot of sun either. A winter to forget.
January 2012 - Can't remember this one at all so must have been boring. Does anyone else remember this month?
June 2013 - Cool and dry with a lot of North Sea cloud
Summer 2011
July 2015
August 2008
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Cool/Cold sunny months that I can remember
April 2021
December 2001
August 2007
December 2010
February 2008
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Thought we did remarkably well to get the annual CET of 11.15C for 2022 but the even more scary thing is how close 2023 is running to 2022 now despite not setting any real extreme maximum temperatures. I think we've struggled to see a 33C daily max this year unlike the 40C last year yet it seems we are in with a shot of having an even warmer year than last year.
If the predicted CET values in my table just for the means come off for 2nd to 17th October 2023 we do in fact close the gap to 2022 as a year slightly showing we are predicted to have an even milder first half to October 2023 compared with 2022.
GFS 00z mean, warmest and coldest members
GFS 00z mean 2nd to 17th (Green values)
Using the model mean which for the 16 days averages out at 14.0C to 1 decimal place still sees us close the gap to 2022 down slightly from -0.188C behind to just -0.070C behind and keeps us very much in the running to exceed 11.15C by the end of the year. Never expected us to be in with a shot of another 11C CET mean year but at present it is looking very likely to happen.
GFS 00z coldest member P14 (Blue values)
Even using the overall coldest member of the 00z run that averages out at 11.6C does see the gap to 2022 really maintained at the current level by the 17th. We see a change from -0.188C to -0.202C, a tiny drop away from 2022 but still such a small margin behind that we are still very much in the running to exceed 11.15C by the end of the year. Shows we are going to need a significant cooldown if we are going to avoid a record warm year again.
GFS 00z warmest member P29 (Red values)
When using the overall warmest member of the 00z run that averages out at a whopping 16.5C which is quite impressive for early to mid October sees enough of a swing to put us ahead of 2022 by the 17th. We swing from -0.188C behind 2022 to +0.071C ahead of it by the 17th. This would definitely put us well on course to beat 11.15C and if the projected CET values are underestimates as well then could we be about to not only see another 11C CET year but even exceed 2022's 11.15C despite not setting any very high maximums.
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1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:
What the reason for the warm air masses that come from the south being warmer now than they used to be?
Persistent blocking high pressure areas allowing heat to build up underneath them have become a more common feature since the Super Nino event back in 2015. I still think the atmosphere and the oceans haven't ever recovered from that record event and we've not had a strong La Nina event since then to balance things out again.
All it takes is for us to tap into the heat dome as it breaks down and we have record warmth.
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15 minutes ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:
It's happened because of a couple of things:
As a planet we just experienced the warmest two months ever recorded, back to back. July 2023 warmest ever recorded, August 2023 2nd warmest ever recorded. June 2023 was the 8th warmest.
We got lucky /unlucky (depending on your weather preference) during July and August by avoiding seeing that heat dome migrate north.
It didn't go away though - we just finally tapped into it, just as August turned to September. Given the timing, it maxed out our stats for the month.
Also we wouldn't be discussing this record at all if we'd had raging northerlies all month long either. It shows how much the CET is down to the source of the air mass rather than any warming trend.
Might have seen a 11C or 12C September if we'd had Arctic sourced air all month long.
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3 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:
Looks like it. I'd bet on an overall dry winter that becomes increasingly dry into the second half, with quite a few cold nights and the odd cold spell but a good percentage of high daily maxima nationwide. I would keep the second >20C winter spell on the cards at this point, especially if things do go increasingly dry over the winter, although I'm not sure how much that helps anything at this point of the year.
Definitely looks like this could be hinting at the classical dry El Nino spring-summer at this point, although so far out, you can interpret these early seasonals to mean almost anything you want. A dry winter followed by a really dry and sunny spring, followed by a dry summer would be setting the stage for something truly catastrophic next year, were the synoptics attempting to bring extremely high temps to us come summer...
I wouldn't bank on this if we quickly switch from El Nino to La Nina next year. Those springs and especially summers tend to go downhill very quickly, 2007 is a classic example of this situation as well as 1998.
Unexpected Snow
in Historic Weather
Posted
Another snow event that ended up a lot better than expected was Thursday 12th Feb 2009.
The forecast showed a band of light and patchy snow coming down from the north throughout the day, arriving in my location during the evening, maybe leaving a very slight dusting of snow.
What actually did happen was the front was more active than predicted and arrived about 6 hours early and gave around 4 hours of steady snow that left a nice covering.
Unfortunately that was also the last snow of that cold spell and the winter as a whole as the rest of February 2009 was mild.