SqueakheartLW
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Posts posted by SqueakheartLW
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20 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
10th July 2023 update
Niño 1 and 2 3.3 C
Niño 3 1.5 C
Niño 3.4 1.0 C
Nino 4 0.7 C
That NINO 1+2 figure looks a bit concerning if we want to avoid a strong or super EP El Nino. Even if we see stronger trades appearing in the eastern Pacific it will only push that warmth into NINO 3, making the event even more EP based.
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15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
GLOSEA update out today. Only covers Oct-Dec but looks very troughy over Europe
We need to keep El Niño away from a strong event. If we do that then I think there’s a good chance we’ll see the Euro HP kept well away with troughing over Europe instead. It’s a common theme across the seasonal modelling thus far.
Either way, there’s the potential for this autumn to be extremely wet.
Ultimately December will be the test. If we get a cold December then I think the winter will go the route of 09/10 and be generally cold and wintry. That’s because under Nino the atmosphere will become more favourable to blocking as time goes on.
Also a nice NE Pacific trough modelled for a change instead of a pesky ridge
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21 hours ago, CreweCold said:
Just out of interest's sake, the latest December CFS anomaly- Very moderate Nino-esque with the Euro trough anomaly
A nice early signal here but can it sustain and strengthen further as we head towards December.
Also of major note is that finally we are not seeing the default very high heights predicted for the NE Pacific for a change. Perhaps this is the thing we want to see to at least give us a chance of something colder for a change.
21 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:Looks a very fascinating signal @CreweColdand probably a west based -ve NAO signal too a bit.
Looks at bit more central based -NAO to me with the core of heights towards the east of Greenland
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Think it's going to be a very close call for Scunthorpe with that area down near Leicester
At least I live on the western side of Scunthorpe which puts me a little bit closer to catching this area of the storms.
As for anyone east of this I think unless something develops in that gap it's probably over unless you are in the far east of the UK
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1 minute ago, TJS1998Tom said:
Just seen the radar. What do you guys reckon for Lincoln. Clouds look ready for one atm
Not sure but pay attention to this area. Both of us might just strike lucky
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4 minutes ago, bazookabob said:
Looking from east Leeds, I'd say there is convection on the east edge of the system but only as far as the A1 roughly, at least this far north. View from here looking very slightly east of due south.... May have to zoom in!
I am particularly looking at this spot and seeing if it builds east
This is currently the best shot I have for any storm activity later on
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Some nice storms here in the circled area when I just checked
Looks like this is heading due north so at present looks like I'll be missing out and getting that annoying gap to our south between this lot and the Kent storms.
This is unless the main area builds eastwards or that gap to the south sees storms form to bridge the gap between the two areas of storms.
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Starting to see a bit of a split in terms of the ENSO forecasts between CFS and ECM. I have used the trend line with CFS and the rough mid point of the ensemble members in the ECM to get these anomalies for each region. The result is below.
Firstly the ECM appears to have gone to town with it's ENSO forecast for this month and has upgraded the strength of the event and in fact this is the warmest prediction it has gone with so far and is going for a full on super Nino this time with a region 3.4 peak of +2.2C. The ECM looks very grim reading for cold winter lovers and is a big shift compared with the original forecast but it has remained consistent with one thing though, an EP event.
CFS has been getting more and more interesting for cold winter lovers and keeps on downgrading the strength of El Nino and this is in fact the weakest forecast so far and only just scrapes a strong event in region 3.4. The other interesting thing here is how it has been shifting ever more towards a CP event as we get into the winter period and this is the closest we have got to this so far.
Which one of these models is correct. I personally hope the CFS is onto something here as if the ECM is correct then winter may as well be written off already.
CFS latest forecast vs what happened in 2009/10 El Nino event
Just for a bit of fun I have included the CFS predictions again and compared them with the same period in 2009/10 to see how they compare.
The 2009/10 event was definitely weaker at this same stage and based on the predictions it is currently looking like the current event will be stronger than 2009/10 but a similar pattern is present in how the event was EP based at this point in the year in July and slowly progressed towards a CP event by the winter.
CFS shows a similar idea here but more slowly than in 2009. It's a start and maybe CFS will shift further towards a 2009 solution as we move through the year.
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58 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
Thank you very much summer blizzard and we await to see that transfer into the NWP output. The concern I have is the easterly trades currently and I also believe that they are putting a dent in the el niño development.
On the plus side they could have been doing us a big favour and removing the risk of a winter killer Super Nino.
Also on the plus side is that these trades could help push the warmest anomalies away from the eastern Pacific and help us to get more of a central Pacific event instead.
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3 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:
Was June 2015 really as poor as that where you are?
Here it was likely the sunniest June between 2015 and 2022 inclusive, with long spells of settled weather and moderate temps except at the end when it became briefly very hot.
Think southern areas had the least bad weather in summer 2015. For us in N Lincs we got stuck under weather fronts that passed through central parts of the UK at times. This theme began in May 2015 and continued on into the June.
Apart from the 1 day heat spike the summer in general was not very good weather wise.
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Yet again in general the models overestimated the strength of El Nino for June 2023. Below I have inserted a screenshot of a table showing what was predicted, then the actual values based on tropical tidbits then the difference between them.
Notice a lot of negative values in the difference column showing how the models overestimated the strength of the El Nino for June 2023. NINO 1+2 was probably the closest to what was actually predicted with CFS underestimating and ECM overestimating. The other regions were all overestimated.
This trend continues on from May 2023 which was also overestimated too.
Using region 3.4 May was overestimated by -0.07C to -0.17C and June by -0.22C to -0.32C.
If this trend continues then by November, the usual month of ENSO peak we could be -0.97C to -1.07C under the original prediction.
In May 2023 CFS was going for a November peak of +2.6C in region 3.4 and ECM +2.0C
Reduce these values by the projected overestimation will see a likely El Nino peak of between +0.93C at the lowest end through to +1.63C at the upper end so anywhere from a stronger Weak El Nino through to a weaker Strong El Nino looking most likely at this stage which would mean a Moderate event is most favoured with this occupying all of the mid range between these lower and upper values.
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4 hours ago, Don said:
January to June 2023 CET is now running very slightly ahead of the same period in 2022.
Maybe but we have quite high bars set for July and August 2022 which were both 18C months. Will take some beating so unless we get a repeat of July and August last year I can see this mean slipping back below 2022 as the summer progresses
The main months that could decide it are September and December as September 2022 was only slightly above average and December was quite cold.
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June 2023 final provisional monthly mean CET and final provisional finishing position amongst top 10 warmest Junes on CET record between 1772 and 2022
First I will show the current provisional situation up to 29th June 2023 vs top 10 warmest Junes at this same stage
We are currently in 4th position provisionally as of the 29th June with a finishing position after today's CET reading comes in anywhere between 2nd and 7th likely looking at these initial values but most likely we will finish around 4th or 5th overall and will we beat 1976 too?
Now to take a deeper look into what CET mean values are required for the 30th to see where we finish overall provisionally.
Below is the final analysis of what we require provisionally to finish above, below or equal to each of the top 10 warmest Junes on the 30th of the month.
Required final day mean CET value and where this places 2023 provisionally
REQUIRED MEAN CET Position Year Final CET mean Details
50.6C or more 18.200C or more Record falls, new warmest June
50.5C = 1 1846 18.197C Record equalled
24.0C to 50.4C 17.313C to 18.193C 2nd position taken
23.9C = 2 1826 17.310C 2nd position equalled
17.9C to 23.8C 17.110C to 17.307C 3rd position taken
17.8C = 3 1822 17.107C 3rd position equalled
15.2C to 17.7C 17.020C to 17.103C 4th position taken
15.1C = 4 1976 17.017C 4th position equalled
10.4C to 15.0C 16.860C to 17.013C 5th position taken
10.3C = 5 1798 16.857C 5th position equalled
7.4C to 10.2C 16.760C to 16.853C 6th position taken
7.3C = 6 1858 16.757C 6th position equalled
1.3C to 7.2C 16.557C to 16.753C 7th position taken
1.2C = 7 1775 16.553C 7th position equalled
-3.0C to 1.1C 16.413C to 16.550C 8th position taken
-3.1C = 8 1940 16.410C 8th position equalled
-3.2C 16.407C 9th position taken
-3.3C = 9 1818 16.403C 9th position equalled
-3.4C 16.400C 10th position taken
-3.5C = 10 1970 16.397C 10th position equalled
-3.6C or less 16.393C or less Fail to reach top 10 Junes1846 - I would say based on this that 1846 is most definitely safe for another year with a mean daily CET mean of 50.6C or more required to topple the overall monthly June CET mean record of 18.197C.
1826 - 1826 is doable but I think extremely unlikely as today's temperatures are no where near high enough to have achieved 24.0C to 50.4C as a mean so I think 1826 is also safe in 2nd position for another year now.
1822 - This is the first June that could be at risk of falling, meaning 2023 has a shout at finishing in 3rd position as the minimum required mean daily CET value required is only 17.9C. As we have seen many days this month averaging at or above this value then 1822 is at risk but more than likely it will probably end up safe for another year.
1976 - This is the highest placed June that is most likely to fall this year as the minimum requirement to topple 1976 and finish in 4th position is only 15.2C. This looks very doable so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see June 2023 finishing above 1976 and taking 4th position overall.
The remaining years below this look 100% certain to fall as the 30th June 2023 daily mean CET only needs to be 10.4C or more to get into 5th position and as today hasn't been anywhere near cold enough to get a 10.4C mean then 5th at lowest is a dead certainty.
Some of the lower Junes of the top 10 require winter like CET daily means to avoid beating them and imagine if we'd got a CET mean today of -3.6C or below and somehow failed to get into the top 10 due to 1 day in the month.
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9 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
As you said, a nice read, especially if what they say about the El Nino becoming more CP based with time.
Another possible stepping stone to a 2009/10 repeat with the EQBO predicted this winter too.
High solar could be the issue here so 2002/03 could be a better match. It had EQBO and CP El Nino.
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On 25/06/2023 at 04:08, CreweCold said:
If we could just get a moderate CP Nino, we could be all set this coming winter.
A moderate Nino (especially a CP one) tends to correlate to a Euro trough I believe. Funnily enough the Dec height anomalies have, over the past day or so, started to introduce a Dec Euro LP anomaly. Coincidence?
The recent daddy of the euro-trough? 09-10.
Something like this would suffice
P.s the England cold record would probably go under that set up (somewhere sheltered under the slack flow in the S)...We can but dream eh...
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:I'm also liking the cfs precipitation anomalies for the coming winter. The trend is clear and getting stronger. Just look at the strong anomaly down towards the adriatic. Let's hope this trend gains traction as we count down the months.
It could be the combination of possible moderate El Nino in conjunction with EQBO and maybe even a SSW on top too. Keep your fingers crossed that the CFS is onto something here.
Although having said that it is the CFS after all and we know how reliable it can be don't we LOL
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Good news for snowy winter lovers although it doesn't guarantee this will be the case
I spy the start of the EQBO. At least we appear to have passed the test for the first time since 2014, we've had no failure of the EQBO and have seen a normal descent down to 30hpa.
Still can't believe it has been nearly 10 years since we last transitioned properly from a WQBO to an EQBO after the normal (approx. 1 year) of WQBO.
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2 days ago June 2023 was ranking 7th amongst the top 10 warmest Junes between 1772 and 2022 but after checking today we have provisionally risen up to 4th position now, no doubt after the 2 hot days we have just had.
It is looking very closely matched with 1858, 1822, 2023 and 1775 at present and it is quite possible that we finish up with the 2nd warmest June on record as 1846 now looks certain to be safe for another year. 1976 is still bottom of the 10 Junes but does rise up the list quite a bit in the remaining days whilst the years I mentioned above in general fall away somewhat at the end of their Junes.
I think the most likely position we will finish in is somewhere between 1822's value of 17.107C and 1798's value of 16.857C with 1976 up for either above or below 2023 in the end so anywhere from 3rd warmest (beating 1822 at 17.107) through to 6th warmest (beaten by 1798 at 16.857C) the most likely outcome.
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52 minutes ago, StormLoser said:
I am keen to report from Durham that....nothing happened. I experienced a bust so bad, even the better bits of the bust were busted. Oh well. It's raining now.
StormLoser's 'local high pressure' strikes again.
Seems you have bad luck wherever you are. Maybe you should change your username to "StormWinner" instead of "StormLoser".
It might change your fortunes
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Anyone in E Yorkshire got a boat and wants to chase this one
Developed just as it exited into the North Sea
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1 minute ago, Thundery wintry showers said:
Only one sferic from the cell approaching Lincoln from the SSW so far, but it's looking pretty impressive on the latest radar.
Think that one could be a part of the cold front as it appears to be a part of the line that stretches right up to Scotland (Blue Line)
It may do something bigger like those storms ahead of the front but there appears to be little thundery activity on the front itself.
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This one took me by surprise as 30 mins ago it looked to be all over for anyone south of the Humber but this beauty suddenly popped up out of seemingly no where (Black Circle)
Now keeping my eye on this lot to the south and west of me in the orange circle to see what happens there
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2 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:
One for coastal areas in Northern England to look out for I reckon
Hit the jackpot at last and looks like more going up to the south of here now
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Get the feeling that the original squall line is going to redevelop and give some areas in the east a nice unexpected surprise
Can see new developments in line with it on the radar near Birmingham
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1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:
Booo! Stuff to the west looks dreadful while we breed severe cells to our east. Poor show!
You forgot to turn your storm shield off LOL
E.N.S.O. Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Does look a bit EP based unfortunately. Would want to see the core of the warm anomalies nearer 150W to 180W rather than the 90W to 130W shown here