SqueakheartLW
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After going through some QBO data and charts as well as ENSO data from 1899 to 2023 and CET data from 1899 to 2023 I have come up with historical CET anomalies based on different combinations of the QBO and ENSO vs CET and have come up with the following results.
General assessment
My first assessments are simply the 3 main ENSO states vs CET anomalies for the months November to March as well as the 2 main QBO states vs CET anomalies for the same months. The results are below.
ENSO
El Nino - At first glance with the 3 main ENSO states it appears El Nino favours cold into the new year with milder conditions favoured for November and December.
Neutral - It would appear ENSO Neutral favours a front loaded winter with the coldest weather most likely in November with close to average for the winter itself and milder than average favoured for March.
La Nina - La Nina appears to favour close to average early winter, above average late winter and a colder March.
QBO
I was quite surprised when the QBO results came in as it would appear that the WQBO is actually more favourable for colder conditions than the EQBO. All anomalies were negative to some degree with WQBO except for January whilst EQBO had generally positive anomalies except for bang on average December and a colder January.
General ENSO and QBO vs CET
My next assessment combines the 2 main QBO states with the 3 main ENSO states. How will this affect the CET anomalies for each of the months between November and March. The result is below.
El Nino + WQBO - As predicted El Nino and WQBO isn't a good combination for cold in the winter with mostly positive anomalies showing but it does favour a colder February and March at least if anyone wants a late wintry surprise. However the main winter months are generally favoured to be above average on the CET.
El Nino + EQBO - The EQBO appears to act to push the mildest weather in El Nino's to November with generally below average CET's expected really throughout December to March. El Nino and EQBO is looking like the outcome for winter 2023/24 so a good start already if this holds true.
Neutral + WQBO - ENSO Neutral + WQBO seems to favour cold early and late with the mildest conditions in the heart of winter. Not good if you want snow to stick around very long with higher temps of November or the stronger sun in February and March whilst the best winter months are wasted with the milder signal.
Neutral + EQBO - ENSO Neutral + EQBO seems to have the opposite signal to Neutral and WQBO with mild early and late and the best months of December and January reserved for the colder anomalies and settling snow in the best 2 months for it to stick around.
La Nina + WQBO - La Nina + WQBO certainly has a front loaded winter signal with it with the coldest conditions expected in December with things generally becoming less cold to average after new year.
La Nina + EQBO - La Nina + EQBO appears to have a back loaded winter signal with the milder weather in December and getting less mild to possibly colder later on in February and March time
CP and EP ENSO vs CET
My next assessment simply took each El Nino and La Nina position in the Pacific and compared this with the CET anomalies for November to March. The result is below.
CP El Nino vs CET - The CP El Nino looks overall to be a good signal for a colder winter once we get the milder November out of the way. December and March look to have a noticeable colder signal but it is January that has a more significant colder signal under CP El Nino's so if we can switch the current event to a CP one then watch out for January 2024, it could throw up a nice cold surprise for us coldies.
EP El Nino vs CET - The EP El Nino looks like a horror show for coldies with all 5 months showing milder than average, the December especially so. If our current event stays as an EP one then we could possibly be writing off winter 2023/24 as another mild horror show so we need to pray that we switch to a CP event.
CP La Nina vs CET - CP La Nina appears to favour cold early and late with the main winter period milder than average. Good thing we are not due a CP La Nina this winter isn't it?
EP La Nina vs CET - EP La Nina has a noticeable back loaded signal here with the mildest weather in November and progressively getting colder by the anomalies with March having the coldest anomaly.
The big assessment - Combining all of the criteria into El Nino CP and EP, La Nina CP and EP as well as how the QBO affects each one vs the CET anomalies
The big assessment here and how this could play out for winter 2023/24 could be decided by what is showing here. I have shown all 8 possible combinations here but only 2 of them are likely to apply anyway with the QBO looking certain and El Nino looking certain now. The only question mark is whether the event is CP or EP. First I have the results of the main assessment below.
Feel free to study the above table for all El Nino and La Nina types and how the QBO affects the CET anomalies but the 2 main combinations that are most likely to apply to winter 2023/24 I will feature in my section below this one.
Winter 2023/24 predictions on the above
Using all of the above assessments and data the most likely outcomes I have singles out below:
General assessment - El Nino + EQBO most likely
The EQBO appears to act to push the mildest weather in El Nino's to November with generally below average CET's expected really throughout December to March. El Nino and EQBO is looking like the outcome for winter 2023/24 so a good start already for coldies if this holds true.
More detailed assessment - 2 outcomes most likely
- EP El Nino and EQBO
- CP El Nino and EQBO
If we get outcome 1 which is EP El Nino and EQBO then it isn't a particularly good signal for a colder winter. November, February and March look to be written off based on their November (+0.72C), February (+0.80C) and March (+0.36C) anomalies. December looks like it has a little potential with a bang on average anomaly but January at least has a slightly colder (-0.38C) anomaly so a little hope there of at least 1 cold spell within the month. This is currently looking like the favoured El Nino outcome at present with the notable EP signature unless this can change rapidly between now and the winter.
Outcome 2 looks very promising for a colder winter once November is out of the way. The CP El Nino combined with EQBO looks to enhance a colder signal for winter itself with some quite decent cold anomalies showing up, especially January. November (+0.63C), December (-0.49C), January (-1.21C), February (-0.31C) and March (-0.48C). Hope we can switch to a CP El Nino as it appears CP El Nino and EQBO is a very good combination and in fact across all 8 outcomes it appears this is the coldest signal of them all,
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Oh look, CFS have finally turned this right way up
Remember this adjusted 10hpa 60N zonal chart
Now we are seeing this one
There, nice and correct now
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9 minutes ago, Frigid said:
-11C was showing for me on the morning of the 15th, took a good half an hr for the car to defrost and warm up.
A truly spectacular winter's day, akin to those mornings in Dec 2010. Blue skies and a deep, thick frost. I know it's unlikely but I hope to see more this upcoming winter.
If only that cold could have hung on till at least Christmas Day. That would have made December 2022 more memorable and would have put it in the sub 1C CET club and if it had clung on to the end of the year 2010 and 1890 could have been under threat. Also we wouldn't have got the 11C CET year either.
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17 hours ago, CreweCold said:
This would be decent for Christmas...very seasonal
Followed by an absolute snow machine for New Years
It remains cold well into the new year
This is what I'm seeing with the CFS at the moment. It's flitting between a Dec 09-Jan10 scenario and an 87/88. I believe the stakes to be really high this year as we're facing two scenarios...winter proper or a horror show. A proper dichotomy.
Both are El Nino winters and both in the ascending part of their respective solar cycles but very different in how they turned out.
Guess what the major difference is between those 2 winters
- Winter 1987/88 was a WQBO winter
- Winter 2009/10 was an EQBO winter
Personally based on this and the fact winter 2023/24 looks like it will be EQBO then as a coldie I'd hope this will favour the more 2009/10 solutions the CFS keeps throwing into its output over the 1987/88 but then knowing our luck the 1987/88 lot will verify in the end.
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5 hours ago, HafrenLMP1 said:
I actually preferred Dec 09/Jan 10 to the following year......so I'd gladly take that now. 87/88 I certainly wouldn't....and Christmas Day was nigh on warm.....
The ideal cold winter based on years from 2008 onwards for me would be as follows:
Nov 24th to 30th 2010 - Obvious reasons here
Dec 1st to 6th 2010 - As above
Dec 7th to 10th 2017 - A nice short cold snap with a little snow
Dec 11th to 15th 2022 - Really liked the most severe part of this cold spell
Dec 16th to 25th 2010 - The extreme cold of this period wins it for me
Dec 26th to 31st 2009 - Not a lot to choose from here to end December but it was between 2009 and 2020
Jan 1st to 12th 2010 - An obvious choice here due to the cold and snow
Jan 13th to 21st 2013 - Probably the best cold and snowy period between 2008 and 2023 for this middle part of January
Jan 22nd to 31st 2015 - No decent cold snap or spell that I can recall for late January between 2008 and 2023. Either 2015 or 2019 here and as I got more snow in 2015 than 2019 I picked that one
Feb 1st to 14th 2009 - The easy pick for me. The best first half of February cold spell of them all. Several snow events too.
Feb 15th to 25th 2013 - Nothing decent that I can recall between these dates for cold and snow but 2013 for me was probably the coldest for this period between 2008 and 2023
Feb 26th to 28th 2018 - Couldn't miss out the famous beast from the east 2018 here. An easy number 1 choice to end February.
For March for me we have 1st to 3rd 2018 as well as 17th to 19th 2018. Also 20th to 23rd 2008 or 22nd to 31st 2013 as picks too.
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3 hours ago, jules216 said:
Thing that its often overlooked is that 2015/16 was going rather nicely, nearly whole of January until 26th was cold only that stupid minor SSW re-shuffled the very promising acumulated cold. Again undone by badly timed SSW, like 1987,2002,2009,2021 etc. All of these occasions SSW did more harm then good for us in central Europe as it shifts the cold away to North and West Europe. We need no SSW and just below average zonal winds just like 2016/17 and -EA pattern not -NAO which does often more bad then good, the closer you go to central Europe from west.
Not very often we can get a good pattern for cold for basically the whole of Europe but I would say a Scandi high linking up with a Greeny high and troughing through the Med all the way from Iberia to Greece is the jackpot pattern but is quite uncommon.
Usual thing is either:
- Default +NAO pattern that makes most of Europe mild but maybe further east can still be cold depending on the location of the dreaded Euro high.
- -NAO pattern which tends to favour western Europe and can often set up Euro trough that makes eastern Europe mild.
- Sceuro high that is good for eastern Europe cold but is bad for us in western Europe with mild southerlies.
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1 hour ago, Don said:
That's upside down!!
LOL
A rerun of the weak 2020/21 vortex during the winter season would do me just fine if we don't get a split.
Otherwise a 2012/13 vortex season repeat would do nicely with a nice split and destruction of the vortex.
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This is interesting how CFS is already going for a weaker vortex right out to November.
Maybe why a lot of long range models are showing blocking signals.
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Some nice pre Christmas cold showing up here on CFS 18z 9 month run
Unfortunately this is about as good as it got on this run for the winter itself although we see a late March 2024 wintry surprise too.
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1 minute ago, Weather-history said:
No thanks. February was off the scale in term so wetness here. Absolutely ridiculous.
If I chose a milder winter if we couldn't have a colder one I'd pick the previous one 2018/19.
At least it wasn't a washout winter and had a little cold and snow 2nd half of Jan and early Feb and at least had that memorable warm spell later in Feb.
2019/20 was just a horror show that generally got worse as the autumn .... errm I mean winter went on.
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34 minutes ago, RJBingham said:Another 19/20 winter would be nice, except a bit milder
No thank you. Any repeat of a 2013/14, 2015/16, 2019/20 or 2021/22 would be a horror show too many.
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:
Just the slight windchill
Gets even colder too
BANK
I'll take that one
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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
I had a sneaking suspicion it might turn into a CP event, posted in the ENSO thread a couple of weeks back.
Maybe the developing EQBO is playing a part here. The same thing happened in 2009,
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For those of us who want a better chance of colder weather this winter this SST anomaly change chart will fill you with coldies glee
Look at the ENSO region and all those blues in the eastern Pacific and the oranges in the western Pacific. Are we finally seeing a change taking place and the Nino shifting from an EP event to a CP one?
You can also clearly see this trend on the NOAA chart too.
The latest tropical tidbits anomaly values also show that in general the NINO 4 and 3.4 regions have warmed slightly since the end of July whilst there has been general cooling in NINO 3 and 1+2
Hope this trend continues on and gives us a CP El Nino by the time late autumn and winter arrive.
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If models are correct with both a Super Nino and the northern blocking it will be of interest to see how this interacts with the EQBO.
As we have no historical events with both Super Nino and EQBO together (1982, 1997 and 2015 all WQBO leading up to the winters) then we don't know how this will play out.
As for the polar vortex in Super Nino winters we have a whole mixture. 1997/98 was a weaker vortex with no SSW but 2015/16 was a monster polar vortex of doom until the biggest and earliest final warming on record for March 2016.
Could the EQBO result in a much earlier SSW and a much better chance of a colder more blocked winter which is showing up in the models for the most part.
As for the CFS I'd say this is
C omplete
F abricated
S ***
Therefore one for the bin.
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4 hours ago, Uncertainty said:
The seasonals have update and just look at the euro low anomaly for NDJ on Glosea Don! What a chart! You would absolutely be looking at an ssw with that Aleutian low / +SCAND setup too.
So we have Glosea, system 5 (ECMWF) and the bcc seasonal on board, 3 big hitters. But what about the rest?
The ECCC is, frankly, ridiculous. 2009 redux there.
The JMA, which incidentally was +NAO in its last update, joins the UKMO with a scandi high / SE euro low combo
Meteofrance has a stonking Greenland high
Just a slight nitpick with the hint of Iberian heights, 2018/19 had that issue. Still, follows the blocking trend.
DWD joins the party
The cfs, typically, is different and has a broad U.K. trough.
And all this despite all these models forecasting a strong, perhaps super El Niño that, at least initially, looks to be east based. Both of which are canonically +nao promoters.
What a good early start to the winter discussion with those blocked looking charts.
One crucial thing I have noticed on all of them which is absent this time on long range model output which has been a default certain addition before now is .....
NO NE PACIFIC RIDGE
Maybe puts us more in the game this time with the NE Pacific trough this time around.
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23 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
02AUG2023: Nino3: 1.8 , Nino3.4: 0.1 , Nino4: 0.8
JJ MEI came in at +0.3.
Nino3.4 at just 0.1C ???
Sure about that as that's a big drop in just a week
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7 hours ago, Don said:
So I wonder why the latest ECM seasonal is going for a cold blocked winter?!
3 hours ago, Chesil View said:just a though but perhaps climate change may be changing the modellings percieved wisdom around the typical effects of a strong El nino.
Could be that unknown new factor of super Nino combined with EQBO which should be well underway by the time winter comes. Since we only have recent history of how super Nino works when combined with a WQBO then it is a big unknown and a nice waiting game to see what happens.
As SSW's seem to be more common in both El Nino's and also with EQBO then we may be seeing the models factoring in a combination of both. This means we could get
- Another 1997/98 or 2015/16 repeat with no SSW if the EQBO fails to deliver
- A lesser version of the above years if super Nino effects are moderated by EQBO
- As Feb 1983 shows we can get cold weather within a super Nino winter so we could see at least 1 cold month
- Or we get the holy grail winter with super Nino effects combining with EQBO and a big polar vortex killer SSW all combining to potentially set up a 2009/10 on steroids or possibly a 1962/63 repeat,
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Latest monthly update from me now ECM have issued August ENSO forecast
July 2023 assessment
As with previous updates of this nature I will first show how ECM and CFS fared against the average monthly NINO values from NOAA and Tropical Tidbits
Yet again a general overestimation by the models a month ago for the NINO 4, 3.4 and 3 regions. ECM was well off the mark in the main body of the Pacific and it was generally a big well done to CFS here that was actually quite accurate for the main NINO regions.
CFS gets a big black mark for NINO 1+2 as it was way off what actually happened in July and in fact ECM had the right idea here although it did overestimate a bit.
August 2023 forecast and comparison
Here's the latest anomaly predictions by both ECM and CFS for all 4 NINO regions from August 2023 to February 2024. Also included is how the latest forecast compares with the one a month ago and if the values are lower, higher or the same as last month.
Generally grim reading if you are hoping to avoid a Super Nino, especially with ECM that has upgraded the strength of the event compared with July 2023 which in itself was also an upgrade compared with the June 2023 forecast. ECM almost goes for a basin wide super event with only NINO 4 not getting to super.
CFS is a bit better but even it is an upgrade compared to a month ago and also CFS has a little bit more of a CP element to the event by the time winter comes whilst ECM just goes all out for super EP.
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16 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:16 hours ago, Don said:
Lets hope it's picked up on the correct trend at this very early stage! That would be a genuine cold winter, if it were to come off. Looking blocked for all three months!
4 hours ago, Chesil View said:Indeed Don that Cansips run is very wintry for the UK. The low anomalies over continental Europe for all three months certainly different to recent winters if it comes off. As Crewe has pointed out in the past high anoms to our north are not that much help without low anoms to our south over Europe.
Looks better the further into the winter too. A back loaded signal which is typical with El Nino
The February 2024 one looks most wintry with lower heights closer to the UK
Unfortunately CFS still going for borderline strong/super Nino which could scupper it all
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45 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
QBO is in the upper atmosphere, not the oceanic surface.
I did find a link between ENSO and the QBO. My post below in the link
EQBO favours CP El Nino's over EP El Nino's.
It also appears to fight against the development of the strongest El Nino events too.
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3 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
Niño 1 & 2 3.0
Niño 3 1.7
Niño 3.4 1.2
Niño 4 0.8
A nice step in the right direction for Nino 1+2 with that 0.5C cooling.
Need Nino 1+2 to end up cooler than Nino 4 to set up a modoki event then hope that Nino 3.4 ends up the warmest region. Nino 3 is still a bit too warm for my liking if we want a decent chance of a colder winter.
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55 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:
Can you answer the same question I gave to you about your data please?
QBO reconstruction is from:
Just a moment...
AGUPUBS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COMUnfortunately I don't have a source for the ENSO table, somebody just shared it with me back on Gavs comment box in the day which you were also on and I haven't felt the need to question it.
https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.anom.data
In the above data series dating from as far back as 1870. The 1965 and 1966 rows look like this
1965 -0.57 -0.36 -0.34 -0.09 0.19 0.45 0.81 1.25 1.26 1.61 1.54 1.45
1966 1.13 0.83 0.83 0.54 -0.06 0.14 0.23 -0.10 -0.05 -0.05 -0.37 -0.26
A peak of +1.61C on this series
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Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I think someone needs to build some giant fans to blow all those warm anomalies in the eastern Pacific further west
LOL