Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Hot?

SqueakheartLW

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,403

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by SqueakheartLW

    Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Think I'm finally going to see my storm fix. Have missed out for the whole week.

    Untitled1.thumb.jpg.3e7e5a9527910134565adbdafe7058e8.jpg

    Finally good that the TOD has finally fallen and it looks like the Lincolnshire shield has finally failed but can this lot get up to me in N Lincs?

    With that big area showing up just off the coast of Norfolk I look to be in a good position. Might just arrive in time for dusk and nighttime assuming it all doesn't die a death before it gets to me or suddenly changes course

    • Like 1

    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Here's a promising start if you are hoping for a cold winter 2020/21

    u10serie.thumb.png.8fca190288e0805a4a71e5733974e8bf.png

    Every single one of the CFS runs is below the long term average for zonal winds and all significantly below 2019 at the same stage of the year. Wouldn't take much really since it was a polar vortex of doom after all.

    These runs tie in with the general themes from the main long range CFS runs. These are my totals so far from the daily runs I have looked at

    CFS 00Z 500hpa anomalies    Start 06/07/2020    Last 15/08/2020

    Temps        Nov       Dec     Jan      Feb         Mar
    V Mild           0           1         0          1             0
    Mild             12         10        7           7            7
    Average      13          11       17        15           22
    Cold            16          19      17         15           10
    V Cold          0           0         0          3             2
    LEADER     COLD COLD AV/CD AV/CD AVERAGE

    Precip        Nov      Dec          Jan        Feb         Mar
    V Dry           0           0             1             1             0
    Dry              13         22            8            8             7
    Average       20         9            16          12           16
    Wet              7          10           15          16           15
    V Wet          1           0             1             4            3
    LEADER    AVER AV/WET AV/WET    WET    AV/WET

    Not looking good if you want a dry winter but since most options are average temperatures or colder then there's every hope that with the wetter than average signal combining with a colder than average one that a fair few of these wetter spells could have snow involved in them.

    There is a clear front loaded winter signal beginning to emerge too as these runs progress too. Maybe ties in well with the CFS zonal wind forecast.

    • Like 4
    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Another update on the QBO which it has to be said looks a bit more promising if you want the EQBO to return to the upper stratosphere at least

    In my last bigger update things didn't look very good after that positive zonal wind for the QBO at 30 hpa and the bad news route of the two I wanted when it looked like the WQBO was on its way back again

    Things have changed somewhat since then in general above 20 hpa

    qbo2.thumb.jpg.d0a17e66f7bb0f9e6f9f70d1456831b7.jpg

    I shall start this time with the general overview of the main QBO levels that matter the most

    1 - The continuation of the good news in regards to a possible EQBO fightback is the continuation of the descent and weakening of the anomalous easterly jet that formed early this year. This is allowing the westerlies above to also descend and this should make room for easterlies to return above the westerlies

    2 - The ever persistent westerlies refuse to move from the areas between 20 hpa and now down to an average of 50 hpa and overall they have strengthened which isn't looking good for winter 2020/21 but since this isn't a standard WQBO then there's no real idea on how this will affect the winter overall. What this persistent WQBO at this level could have done is acted in a similar fashion to what the anomalous easterly jet did earlier in the year when this severely impacted the EQBO above. This could now be causing what should have been the next WQBO to fail now instead.

    3 - Signs of this possible failure of what should have been the next WQBO are becoming more and more evident now with recent increases in EQBO winds above 20 hpa and in the last week there has been the strongest EQBO wind burst since the last EQBO got disrupted earlier this year. There has also in general been a reduction in WQBO winds at 10 hpa and more neutral to weak easterlies on average showing up. I will be watching this height in the next few weeks to see if this trend continues

    qbo1.thumb.jpg.6a18e9060183d27a8c6e689e2413b6b0.jpg

    I shall take a more broad view of the above chart to compare the current situation and predict when the EQBO will likely set in fully at 10 hpa if it does make a comeback

    1 - The red line shows the lowest level of the lingering WQBO at around 50 hpa and when comparing that to the last WQBO this took place at around the end of January into early February 2019

    2 - Head vertically up to the 10 hpa level

    3a - I then drew another vertical line down from when the EQBO started in April 2019 at 10 hpa. This shows we have around 3 months to go before there's a realistic chance of the EQBO re-establishing itself

    3b - The final horizontal line shows that the most realistic height that the WQBO has to have descended to in order for the EQBO to stand a chance of returning is close to 80 hpa so not much chance in the next few weeks but with the strange behaviour with the QBO at present then anything could be possible

    qbo3.thumb.jpg.0231e454d651a9bf8a13c8f3137b7e01.jpg

    Now I shall show the more general view through a deeper level of the atmosphere

    1 - Further good news if an EQBO is to return as the neutrals to weak easterlies have descended right down to 15 hpa and still look to be slowly descending just that little bit further too

    2 - The other good news for the possible EQBO return is how easterlies are strengthening higher up and these should descend and add further easterly momentum to those lower down. At the moment it looks like the next due WQBO is now failing but only as long as the last lingering WQBO doesn't strengthen so much it effectively becomes the next fully blown WQBO

    qbo4.thumb.jpg.1235aeb1c443058567cce7d0fa6524a4.jpg

    One thing that does give hope for the EQBO to return is how different this disruption event is to the 2016 one

    1a - The clear anomalous easterly jet and the disrupting influence is clear to see here in 2016 and the effect is had in stalling then reversing the descent of the EQBO

    1b - This EQBO had barely formed and had no time to really get established so it is no wonder that this disruption event was so successful in causing the EQBO to fail

    2 - We finally got a standard EQBO in 2017/18 and what looked like a standard WQBO in 2018/19 but this one was going to then go pear shaped again in 2019/20

    3a - As in 2016 we yet again see another anomalous easterly jet form and this one is a much bigger disruption event than the 2016 one. Due to this you would expect a total failure of the EQBO and a return to a full strength WQBO but things haven't worked out quite like that, at least not so far anyway

    3b - I feel the main reason the disruption event has had far less success this time around despite it been a bigger one is the fact the EQBO was far stronger and more established in the upper stratosphere before the disruption took place. It appears the disruption has only weakened the EQBO significantly but hasn't done quite enough to kill it off completely. This is why I feel things are pretty much on a knife edge and it could go either way but the most recent developments look like the EQBO is trying to fight back above 20 hpa at least

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 6

    The snowstorm that never happened

    in Historic Weather

    Posted · Edited by SqueakheartLW

    44 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Aye, same here, and another very similar event this day, loads of snow due, but actually turned out less cold with a thaw

    archives-2010-1-10-12-0.png

    Had been a decent week for cold and snow from 4th January 2010 to the 9th January 2010 and it looked like the worst snow of the winter was due on the 10th but what a disappointment it was when I got up next day and saw all that fresh powdery snow from the few days before that had stayed frozen in the ice days from 7th to 9th January all melting away like it did

    However in Scunthorpe we made up for this big time between 30th November 2010 and 1st December 2010. Stuck under a snow streamer all night long and got about 50 cm of snow

    Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Cone is shredding that little thing in the Estuary to bits can even see through the updraught won't be long before it goes mental North of Chelmsford though so keep em peeled up there in an hour 

    The new Lincolnshire shield is keeping this thing away. Was heading NW until it got here

    Untitled1.thumb.jpg.7b7105b1ba88bf0c8b6918977d297afb.jpg

    Someone must have set up a barrier between Boston, Sleaford and Newark because as soon as this got to where the red line is it suddenly started to curve away west. No chance for me in Scunthorpe at the top of this shot then

    Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    This currently looks promising although I shouldn't get my hopes up really

    Untitled1.thumb.jpg.9502424defa3f10dd782d16b5a337957.jpg

    Just plotted where the eastern extent of this storm system is tracking. It appears to be building on the eastern side of the band of storms. If this continues then the eastern edge should follow the red arrow and means Scunthorpe should see some storms later this afternoon.

    Keep going like this storms and don't swerve westwards or die on me before you get to Scunthorpe

    Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just now, Paul Sherman said:

    I really would not worry in the areas that are cool and cloudy, its disgustingly stifling here at 80f and high humidity, this will push into the back side of the crud and ignite more storms.

    There is a wedge across the Cone, Central Kent and Central Sussexes along with London where the juice is at present and we will breed em for you all

    In order for me to see any I'll need them breeding across Norfolk, no chance

×
×
  • Create New...