SqueakheartLW
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Posts posted by SqueakheartLW
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No wonder it's so severe in Wales and the SW Midlands. This is a snapshot of surface winds over the UK
Look at all those various wind directions. Northerlies over Wales, Southerlies over SW England and easterlies over the rest of England. Also there appears to be an independent rotational feature showing up too, maybe due to supercell action.
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How many lightning strikes is that in the last hour?
Must be a great show across central Wales and the SW Midlands right now.
What do I have in Scunthorpe right now. A serious storm drought, boring
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Think of all those people in east London who wanted a storm and are mighty jealous of those in west London getting it all
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Just now, General Cluster said:
Absolutely nothing over here... But, I guess, being sat under one ginormous heat-dome without a trigger (either orographic, UHI or atmospheric) will do that... Not a cumulus cloud in sight!
Too near the east coast. Same problem for me. Clear blue sky and no clouds to be seen. Never good for storms in the east when the wind is from any easterly direction
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Looks like eastern areas from East Anglia through Lincolnshire, Yorkshire and the NE have the wrong wind direction yet again
Looks like the best place to be is within that red area. Everyone else looks like having to forget it for today. The storm drought for me in Scunthorpe continues on again. They were very lucky in Hull this morning when we fed them a nice storm whilst we missed out
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We have liftoff just to the south of London
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3 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
Glosea5 update shows a strong high at the coast of Alaska. Positive NAO. Once again.
They seem to put that "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" in EVERY winter now as a default. Great news if you want cold in the USA in winter but bad news for every other northern hemisphere location. All the cold end up bottled up over Greenland, Canada and for large parts of the time the USA too. The usual downstream pattern is the Euro slug that leaves us in S or SW winds all winter and variations on the 2013/14, 2019/20 and December 2015 themes.
Just as long as we don't end up with another polar vortex of doom like we had last winter, that vortex was about as extreme as it gets in the northern hemisphere.
Notice all that high pressure in the eastern Pacific in general. Is that La Nina related?
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22 minutes ago, thetipster said:
simulated IR this afternoon
Like the way there's nothing for hours then bang. It explodes out on such a short time frame. It seems if you draw a line between the Wash and NW London then across to the Bristol Channel then anywhere NW of that line is in prime zone. The poor old SE corner and far S miss out
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2 minutes ago, Jamiee said:
New Fri/Sat/Sun Thunderstorm Warnings:
Friday Writeup:
Areas of showers and thunderstorms associated with a hot and humid air mass stranded across the southern half of the UK are expected to continue through Friday, and not solely during daylight hours. Many areas encompassed by this warning will miss the thunderstorms altogether, but where they occur, heavy rain (20-30mm in an hour, and possibly as much as 50mm in 2 to 3 hours), frequent lightning, and in some places large hail are all potential hazards. The greatest chance of impactful showers is expected to be in the southern half of this warning area, where afternoon showers are more likely to be slow moving and prolonged..
Sunday Writeup:
Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on Sunday, with some persisting into the late evening. A similar day on Monday, though the thunderstorms more likely to clear earlier in the evening. Many areas within the warning area will miss the thunderstorms altogether, but where they occur , the heavy rain (15-25mm) is expected in an hour, and as much as 40mm in 2 or 3 hours. Thunderstorms are likely to be accompanied by hail, lightning and gusty winds.
Just scrape into the NE of both of those warning areas
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1 minute ago, T4Toby said:
Nice little storm over Hull
You've got nice and lucky then. We in Scunthorpe developed that storm for you. Just started to unleash its rain and lightning AFTER it had passed to the north of us
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The snow event that I definitely remember been forecast was the one for the night of Wednesday 23rd February 2005 into Thursday 24th. The link is below.
They talked of persistent snow setting in during the night and I was in the highest risk area with local falls of up to 15cm predicted. Get up the next morning and the snow from the previous day's showers had all melted and it was pouring with rain with a bit of sleet mixed in. That was one big flop by the bbc weather forecast that day
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17 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
And yesterday. Seems to me in 10 days time the westerlies will return in the 'green area.'
Maybe westerlies do return to the areas around 10 to 20 S but notice what the forecast also shows for the regions above the equator itself
1 - The current situation shows the new EQBO has descended to around 7 hpa. This region lacked any easterlies at all from 1 hpa to 7 hpa only a few weeks ago. Now look at the forecast for 240 hours time
2 - Notice how the EQBO is predicted to have got down to 10 hpa and there's every chance that it will only strengthen from that point onward. There is also a general weakening of the easterlies below 60 hpa too which should be a good sign for the EQBO. The westerlies at 30 hpa look to descend a bit too over the period.
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There may be some hope for those out there who want to see a return of the EQBO
Take a look at the following chart
1 - After the initial descent of the new easterly phase from 3 to 7 hpa things look to be stalling for a while and during this period I was getting the feeling that this was the end of any chances of the EQBO coming back and we were going to be heading into another probable year of the WQBO again and therefore thought we was going to suffer the prospect of yet another WQBO driven winter for 2020/21
2 - However the last couple of days has started to change my mind. Look within my green circle and you may be able to make out that the neutral/ weak easterly area has suddenly started to descend again and quite rapidly too and if you look closely you can see how it has dropped right down to around 15 hpa. This has got my hopes up of a return of the EQBO to the areas from 15hpa and upwards and with the continuing descent and weakening of the anomalous easterlies below 60 hpa then this could be a sign that the EQBO is on the way back after all. However it is highly unlikely that it will descend down to 30 hpa in time for the winter.
This general increase in easterlies can be confirmed with the following chart
The area within my green circle on this chart was mostly westerlies just a few weeks ago. Now there's only one tiny patch of westerlies still remaining and the rest is now a sea of blue between 15 hpa and 1 hpa.
Watch this space and hope that in a week or two the EQBO is on the way back
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Just now, MattStoke said:
36.3’C at Heathrow.
Just another 0.6C to push 36.8C out of the top 5 then. Never expected to get into possible 37C + range twice in the same year
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50 minutes ago, Snowy L said:
Anyone else think forecasters have handled this spell terribly. They seem to have massively underestimated these decaying fronts. All week they have been saying Friday will be incredible for England away from northwest coasts yet we now have a front in the middle of the country. Is it too much to ask them to pick up on these things the day before it happens?
That same front is sparking off these showers. We had a dry day forecast but this line of showers to my west looks like it will soon be upon me in Scunthorpe
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Think these could have potential to develop into something more significant later
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Just now, qwertyK said:
Seems like this is a more traditional heatwave as in like 2018 (although nowhere near as long), with an extended period of 30+ temps but nothing record breaking, not a one day surge like last week or 2019
I'll just wait to see what the 11:00 BST values say then we get our first direct comparison to last week then to see what the highest value is. Needs to be 33C at 11:00 if we stand any chance of getting into the top 5 by 15:00 or 16:00
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Here's our full top 20 10:00 BST temperature list.
10:00 BST Wattisham 28°c
10:00 BST Jersey Airport 28°c
10:00 BST Norwich Weather Centre 28°c
10:00 BST Biggin Hill 28°c
10:00 BST Jersey 27.2°c
10:00 BST Cambridge 27°c
10:00 BST London / Heathrow Airport 27°c
10:00 BST Guernsey Airport 27°c
10:00 BST Stansted Airport 27°c
10:00 BST Southampton / Weather Centre 27°c
10:00 BST Bournemouth Airport 27°c
10:00 BST Manston 27°c
10:00 BST London / Gatwick Airport 27°c
10:00 BST Luton Airport 27°c
10:00 BST Middle Wallop 27°c
10:00 BST Heathrow 26.7°c
10:00 BST Kenley 26.7°c
10:00 BST Thorney Island 26.2°c
10:00 BST Herstmonceux West End 26.1°c
10:00 BST Wattisham 26.1°cIt's going to take some to beat last week with these values. Unless something strange happens then a minimum 5°c warm up in the next hour looks unlikely so the top 5 maximums could be safe for today at least
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On 31/07/2020 at 22:22, damianslaw said:
Yes very similar temp wise.
Top 5 temperatures to look out for for maybe beating today
5th - 36.8C
4th - 37.1C Cheltenham 03/08/1990
3rd - 37.8C Set just last week on 31/07/2020 at Heathrow
2nd - 38.5C Set at Gravesend on 10/08/2003
1st - 38.7C Set at Cambridge on 25/07/2019
Maybe someone would like to tell me when and where the 36.8C was set
To match last week we need somewhere to be around 33C at 11am - Went on to get 37.8C with this last week
Adjusting for all other figures we get a top 5 all time max if we are at approx 32C at 11am
We could beat 38.7C if we are around 34C at 11am
For the big 40C we would very likely need somewhere to be at around 35.5C at 11am
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8 hours ago, jules216 said:
@SqueakheartLW May I ask what 4 winters are in the Coldest Option? Just wondering if any of those match my summer analogs - 1970,1977,1995,2005 and 2010. Many thank.J
Winter 1995/1996 is amongst the 4 winters featured as well as another cold classic 1978/1979. The two winters that could put the cold theory in jeopardy are 1992/1993 and 1973/1974 but overall when these winters are averaged out the anomalies come out colder than average for all 3 winter months. I imagine averaging out the winters helps to remove other factors at play during those winters and should result in the underlying QBO signal as a common factor with all of the winters. The data is below:
Average CET 1953 to 2020 DEC - 4.89C JAN - 4.15C FEB - 4.21C WINTER - 4.42C
QBO Figures CET 1953 to 2019 1954 to 2020 1954 to 2020 1953 to 2020
Autumn Weak WQBO Sep Oct Nov AV Winter DEC Anom JAN Anom FEB Anom OVERALL Anom
1995 + 6.98 + 3.43 - 0.77 + 3.21 1995/96 2.30C -2.59C 4.30C +0.15C 2.50C -1.71C 3.03C -1.39C
1992 + 1.30 + 3.94 + 6.33+ 3.86 1992/93 3.60C -1.29C 5.90C +1.75C 4.60C +0.39C 4.70C +0.28C
1973 + 5.51 + 5.20 + 4.92+ 5.21 1973/74 4.90C +0.01C 5.90C +1.75C 5.40C +1.19C 5.40C +0.98C
1978 + 5.91 + 6.22 + 4.04+ 5.39 1978/79 3.90C -0.99C -0.40C -4.55C 1.20C -3.01C 1.57C -2.85C
AVERAGE 3.68C -1.21C 3.93C -0.22C 3.43C -0.78C 3.68C -0.74C-
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7 hours ago, CreweCold said:
Thanks @SqueakheartLW
I'm of the opinion that some part of Europe will see a severe cold spell this winter- significantly below the average. I'm also plumping for a severe spell in the UK too. A very mild winter, for me, is a long odds punt.
After 2 mild winters on the bounce, surely not a 3rd one in a row. The odds must be very much against it happening again. With no southern SSW showing up this year then that could be something to go on and should allow more stratospheric warmth to be in the northern hemisphere this winter instead of it been in the southern hemisphere.
Also this 10 hpa easterly is really taking off now and has produced a strong easterly burst of winds at the equator over the Pacific
Just look at how vast that easterly has become. Is this a sign the EQBO is about to return to 10 hpa?
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8 hours ago, jules216 said:
I wouldn't write of this winter just because of this QBO anomaly again. I am in the @CreweCold camp and think we are in for a good winter. We have tracking quite close to my analog years this summer of which the best are 1970,1995 and 2005. Current ACE in Atlantic and number of TS is akin to a blend of 1995 and 2005 so far and perhaps atmosphere might remember this in few months time and we will achieve at least some blocking to the north.
I thought I would do some delving into the strength of the QBO in the autumn preceding each winter from the moment the NOAA QBO data starts to look more reliable to see what effect it has overall on the winter that follows it. 1953 looks to be the first reliable QBO data set once autumn arrives as the figures before this from 1948 to 1953 look a bit strange all hovering around -2.
My example autumn average for 1953 looks like this
Sep Oct Nov Average
-1.28 -0.39 -0.59 - 0.75
We take the three figures for each of the months and add them together and divide by 3 to get the average QBO for the autumn. In this case it is -0.75 so basically neutral QBO for Autumn 1953. Obviously this figure is to be matched up with the CET values for Winter 1953/54 as follows
Dec Jan Feb Winter 1953/54
6.9 2.9 2.6 4.13
I have then added all December CET's from 1953 to 2019 together and divided by 67 to get the average CET for this time period and have done the same for January 1954 to January 2020 and also February 1954 to February 2020 to get the following average CET's for the whole period as follows:
Dec Av Jan Av Feb Av Winter Av
Av 4.89 4.15 4.21 4.42
1953/54 6.90 2.90 2.60 4.13
Anom +2.01 -1.25 -1.61 -0.29
In this specific example we had a neutral QBO which overall for this specific 1953/54 winter produced a colder than average winter overall but also a back loaded one with a very mild December followed by cold January and February too
With my assessment I haven't shown specific winters but did group all of them related to the direction and strength of the QBO in the Autumn preceding that winter. I have categorised the QBO based on the average of the three Autumn figures as follows
Strong EQBO -20.00 or lower
Moderate EQBO -19.99 to -12.00
Weak EQBO -11.99 to - 4.00
Neutral QBO - 3.99 to + 1.99
Weak WQBO + 2.00 to + 5.99
Moderate WQBO + 6.00 to + 9.99
Strong WQBO +10.00 or higher
After doing my assessment and calculations I came up with the following ordered from mildest outcome at the top to coldest outcome at the bottom
Strong WQBO +10.00 or higher Average from Sep to Nov 11 winters in this category
+0.44 MILDER THAN AVERAGE WITH A STRONG WQBO IN AUTUMN PRECEDING THE WINTER
Av CET 4.89 4.15 4.21 4.42
1953 to 2019 1954 to 2020 1954 to 2020 1953 to 2020
Month DEC Anom JAN Anom FEB Anom OVERALL Anom
OVERALL 5.91 +1.02 4.64 +0.49 4.05 -0.16 4.86 +0.44Neutral QBO -3.99 to +1.99 Average from Sep to Nov 6 winters in this category
+0.35 MILDER THAN AVERAGE WITH NO DOMINANT QBO IN AUTUMN PRECEDING THE WINTER
Av CET 4.89 4.15 4.21 4.42
1953 to 2019 1954 to 2020 1954 to 2020 1953 to 2020
Month DEC Anom JAN Anom FEB Anom OVERALL Anom
OVERALL 6.08 +1.19 4.17 +0.02 4.05 -0.16 4.77 +0.35Strong EQBO -20.00 or lower Average from Sep to Nov 11 winters in this category
+0.16 MILDER THAN AVERAGE WITH A STRONG EQBO IN AUTUMN PRECEDING THE WINTER
Av CET 4.89 4.15 4.21 4.42
1953 to 2019 1954 to 2020 1954 to 2020 1953 to 2020
Month DEC Anom JAN Anom FEB Anom OVERALL Anom
OVERALL 5.11 +0.12 4.13 -0.02 4.49 +0.28 4.58 +0.16Moderate WQBO +6.00 to +9.99 Average from Sep to Nov 14 winters in this category
+0.08 MILDER THAN AVERAGE WITH A MODERATE WQBO IN AUTUMN PRECEDING THE WINTER
Av CET 4.89 4.15 4.21 4.42
1953 to 2019 1954 to 2020 1954 to 2020 1953 to 2020
Month DEC Anom JAN Anom FEB Anom OVERALL Anom
OVERALL 4.40 -0.49 4.65 +0.50 4.44 +0.23 4.50 +0.08Weak EQBO -11.99 to -4.00 Average from Sep to Nov 9 winters in this category
-0.31 COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH A WEAK EQBO IN AUTUMN PRECEDING THE WINTER
Av CET 4.89 4.15 4.21 4.42
1953 to 2019 1954 to 2020 1954 to 2020 1953 to 2020
Month DEC Anom JAN Anom FEB Anom OVERALL Anom
OVERALL 4.57 -0.32 3.63 -0.52 4.14 -0.07 4.11 -0.31Moderate EQBO -19.99 to -12.00 Average from Sep to Nov 12 winters in this category
-0.36 COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH A MODERATE EQBO IN AUTUMN PRECEDING THE WINTER
Av CET 4.89 4.15 4.21 4.42
1953 to 2019 1954 to 2020 1954 to 2020 1953 to 2020
Month DEC Anom JAN Anom FEB Anom OVERALL Anom
OVERALL 4.38 -0.51 3.58 -0.57 4.23 +0.02 4.06 -0.36Weak WQBO +2.00 to +5.99 Average from Sep to Nov 4 winters in this category
-0.74 COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH A WEAK WQBO IN AUTUMN PRECEDING THE WINTER
Av CET 4.89 4.15 4.21 4.42
1953 to 2019 1954 to 2020 1954 to 2020 1953 to 2020
Month DEC Anom JAN Anom FEB Anom OVERALL Anom
OVERALL 3.68 -1.21 3.93 -0.22 3.43 -0.78 3.68 -0.74After my assessment I will go through each in turn from mildest to coldest
MILDEST OPTION - Strong WQBO +0.44 MILDER THAN AVERAGE WITH STRONG WQBO IN AUTUMN PRECEDING THE WINTER - 11 Winters
As I expected and many others would have expected the mildest option is a strong WQBO on average leading into the winter as a strong WQBO should in theory increase the average zonal winds so therefore lead to a more Atlantic dominated and milder winter. A couple of recent classic examples of this were also amongst the 11 winters such as 2013/14 and 2015/16 and in fact autumn 2015 had the highest average WQBO leading into the winter of +12.75. Winter 2020/21 doesn't look at this stage like it is going to be influenced by a strong WQBO in autumn 2020 unless it suddenly ramps up significantly in the next few weeks so we shouldn't have to worry about the +0.44 mild boost signal to the winter. As for individual months within the winter this setup with a strong WQBO favours a very mild start to the winter and a back loaded signal is present for cold but only slightly by the time February arrives.
2ND MILDEST OPTION - Neutral QBO +0.35 MILDER THAN AVERAGE WITH NO QBO PHASE IN AUTUMN PRECEDING THE WINTER - 6 winters
A rather unusual outcome came next in 2nd position and this is when there is no particular QBO phase on average in the autumn preceding the winter. Only 6 winters featured in this category and overall they come out milder than average again and have a similar pattern to the strong WQBO winters with mild weather in the December and slightly colder than average by the time February comes but what makes this option less mild than the strong WQBO option is the close to average January.
This option is one of those that could be favoured for winter 2020/21 with the strange QBO situation we have right now and if we remain close to neutral with the QBO then it is bad news straight away with this underlying +0.35 milder signal added on before we factor anything else in.
3RD MILDEST OPTION Strong EQBO +0.16 MILDER THAN AVERAGE WITH STRONG EQBO IN AUTUMN PRECEDING THE WINTER - 11 winters
The third mildest option came as quite a shock to me when the strongest EQBO autumns preceding winters didn't give the very cold outcome I was expecting it to. It would seem just like any extreme version of anything a very strong signal can in fact cause a milder outcome like a strong La Nina or Super Nino seems to do. These 11 winters overall came out as milder than average by +0.16C. December was favoured to be slightly milder, January very close to average and February as the mildest of the three months but not significantly so. It certainly looks like the Strong EQBO option isn't going to feature for winter 2020/21. Maybe when the EQBO is this strong the factor that could be making these winters milder than expected is that usually when the EQBO is this strong it is at the very end of the phase and the WQBO is already descending down from above adding it's milder influence into the mix.
4TH MILDEST OPTION - Moderate WQBO +0.08 MILDER THAN AVERAGE WITH MODERATE WQBO IN AUTUMN PRECEDING THE WINTER - 14 winters
An expected milder than average option came in 4th position but was lower down than I expected it to be. A moderate WQBO only favours a slightly milder than average winter overall but also a front loaded winter too. December comes out at -0.49C below average on average whilst both January and February come out as milder than average, especially the January and the overall signal is only +0.08C milder. Basically a close to average winter is expected when in this QBO setup leading into the winter.
3RD COLDEST OPTION - Weak EQBO -0.31 COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH WEAK EQBO IN AUTUMN PRECEDING THE WINTER - 9 winters
As expected an EQBO produces a colder outcome and with this being only weak EQBO's in autumns preceding winters then it is the least cold of the colder than average options. The weak EQBO weakens the zonal signal slightly and as a result gives a colder than average anomaly. It also favours a middle loaded winter with the coldest weather most likely in January at -0.52C below average but December and February also come out below average too. February is only slightly colder than average and this figure could have been influenced by EQBO to WQBO transitioning periods.
2ND COLDEST OPTION - Moderate EQBO -0.36 COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH MODERATE EQBO IN AUTUMN PRECEDING THE WINTER - 12 winters
This option is more or less like a colder version of the weak EQBO winters with colder anomalies compared with it but the cold with the moderate EQBO winters is even more focused on the earlier winter with February close to average. Both December and January come out over -0.5C below average on average during the moderate EQBO winters. This category did also include the beast of all winters, 1962/63 which could have pulled the anomalies even colder as a result. This option looks to be off completely for winter 2020/21 but without the QBO disruption we could have had a chance to be in this moderate EQBO situation in autumn 2020.
COLDEST OPTION - Weak WQBO -0.74 COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH WEAK WQBO IN AUTUMN PRECEDING THE WINTER - 4 winters
Perhaps the most shocking outcome of all was what came out coldest and by a clear margin too. The winters following an autumn with a weak WQBO. These winters were also very cold and front and back loaded with a less cold January between the two cold months of December and February. December came out a whopping -1.21C below average on average with February a still impressive -0.78C below average. January was still below average overall but by only a modest -0.22C. This category surprisingly didn't include winter 2010/11 which was in the moderate WQBO category and this makes the December average anomaly even more impressive.
Now winter 2020/21 could easily end up falling into this category as the QBO only just recently scraped back into very weak WQBO territory but would be classed as neutral in my classification. If the WQBO gets up to around +2 to +6 then it will fit into my weak WQBO category. I'd say game on for a cold winter if that happens based on what I have analysed
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19 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
2.51 -3.20 -4.36 -5.03 -4.86 -2.78 0.34
July QBO 0.34.
Thanks SqueakheartLW for your updates.Weakest and shortest EQBO on record. Only 6 months and peaking at a rather pathetic -5.03. At least we managed to get an EQBO this time unlike in 2016 when the numbers never went negative. Also I think that 2.51 should be -2.51
2020 Lowest figure = -5.03 in April 2020
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
-2.51 -3.20 -4.36 -5.03 -4.86 -2.78 +0.34
2016 Lowest figure = +0.64 in April 2016
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
+9.34 +6.77 +3.16 +0.64 +2.37 +3.86 +6.25
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15 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
at 30 hPa the QBO is + 10 m/s (!) (equator). Surrounded by a blow (negative) sea.
The thing we can hold hope in for the EQBO is the fact that the weak westerlies in the 2 to 10 hpa region have in general weakened in the last few weeks. The main problem is how much that easterly anomaly wants to stick around between 60 and 100 hpa
My prediction as to where we would be on the QBO chart for July 2020 wasn't that far out either but rather annoyingly we ended up close to the right of my circle rather than near the left of it
Prediction
Actual recording
Not so good news if you want the EQBO to win out. Looks more like the line will continue upwards towards a full blown WQBO before the end of the year and will fit my bad news theory from earlier on in my updates
I was hoping more for route 2 on this chart but it looks like the dreaded route 1 is winning out.
The only real hope that the EQBO is trying to fight back is that another renewed easterly wind burst has formed above the Pacific at 10 hpa again like the one that was taking place at my last update
A nice zone of easterlies is now forming above the Pacific once again
This also is matched by another zone above the Indian Ocean where a weaker zone of neutral to weak easterlies is also present
Is this a sign that the down welling of the neutral to easterlies above 10 hpa will soon be showing itself at this height. Hope to see some resolution before the autumn starts but I hold little hope of this
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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Doesn't lightning get attracted to high objects most of the time and since the channel is basically all the same height and as far away as you can get from the base of the storm. It may be a good thing for you if the energy builds then unleashes again on our side of the channel.