[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

But, sadly, not enough 'potential' to prevent me from coming over all sleepy, all of a sudden!

    

What a shame that this chart is 384 hours away

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

1 hour ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Hello Monday !!

 

Ouch. In North Lincolnshire. Looks like I only just miss out on that by miles

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

I can't believe I'm finally seeing this during winter 2019-2020

AO Chart

NAO Chart

Looks like both the AO and NAO are finally heading negative. The cold may finally be coming and the winter we could have had if it were not for that polar vortex and the IOD.

[Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Don't rule out the change of a cold February just yet. Went through all the CET Data from 1950 to now and the ENSO data as well and did some calculations. This is what I got

ENSO                    OVERALL VS 1981-2010 AVERAGE        Nov                 Dec                  Jan                  Feb                  Mar             
Super ElNino         +1.09 MILDER THAN AVERAGE              +1.53 Milder   +2.17 Milder    +1.27 Milder    +0.23 Milder    +0.17 Milder
Strong LaNina       +0.22 MILDER THAN AVERAGE               -0.69 Colder   +0.24 Milder    +0.76 Milder    +0.54 Milder    +0.06 Milder
Weak ElNino         +0.05 MILDER THAN AVERAGE               +0.42 Milder   +0.67 Milder    -0.35 Colder    -0.14 Colder    -0.39 Colder
ENSO Neutral (W) -0.03 COLDER THAN AVERAGE              +0.40 Milder   -0.05 Colder    -0.15 Colder    -0.95 Colder   +0.60 Milder
Moderate LaNina   -0.22 COLDER THAN AVERAGE              +0.70 Milder   -0.30 Colder    +0.10 Milder    +0.10 Milder    -1.70 Colder
ENSO Neutral (N)  -0.29 COLDER THAN AVERAGE              -0.46 Colder   -0.74 Colder    -0.64 Colder    +0.15 Milder    +0.11 Milder
Weak Lanina         -0.40 COLDER THAN AVERAGE             +0.09 Milder   +0.39 Milder    -0.50 Colder    -0.86 Colder    -1.12 Colder
Strong ElNino        -0.45 COLDER THAN AVERAGE             -0.56 Colder   -0.04 Colder    -1.22 Colder    +0.18 Milder    -0.60 Colder
ENSO Neutral (C) -0.53 COLDER THAN AVERAGE             -1.14 Colder   -0.15 Colder    -0.56 Colder    -0.65 Colder    -0.20 Colder
Moderate ElNino   -0.87 COLDER THAN AVERAGE             +0.90 Milder   -0.20 Colder    -2.30 Colder    -0.35 Colder    -2.40 Colder

Since we are currently in a Warm ENSO Neutral then I have highlighted February's average CET anomaly vs 1981 - 2010 average and it is the coldest month based on it's anomaly compared with the 1981 - 2010 average. At -0.95C colder than average if this plays out we could see some cold and maybe snowy weather in February.

Super ElNino - As can be seen from the table also you can clearly rule out any chance of cold with a Super ElNino. Thankfully we don't have one of those this year.

Strong LaNina - Although also not good for cold chances it does at least give a chance of very early snowfall in November with that -0.69C colder anomaly. December 2010 was in a strong LaNina year and was the exception to the rule in general with Strong LaNina's.

Weak ElNino - Weak ElNino years came out overall bad for anything substantially cold but the anomalies suggest a back loaded winter overall.

ENSO Neutral (Warmer side) - This generally mimics the pattern for Weak ElNino but the cold is focused more in the February than any other month. Maybe hope for February 2020 if this plays out.

Moderate LaNina - Very few years to go on with this one so cannot really get a pattern here

ENSO Neutral (Neutral) - When ENSO is bang on average it appears to favour a cold earlier winter, especially focused on the December

Weak LaNina - I'd heard from many sources that Weak LaNina's are supposed to be good to get a very cold winter so I was rather disappointed when I averaged out all of the CET anomalies for Weak LaNina years. It showed a back loaded winter and milder temperatures early on. March was the coldest compared to average. I was expecting a more negative overall anomaly compared to the one I got.

Strong ElNino - This was the ENSO state that surprised me. I was expecting milder than average since ElNino was strong in these years. I came away with colder than average, particularly focused on the January's

ENSO Neutral (Colder Side) - This was the other surprise, how ENSO Neutral (Colder Side) performed better for cold overall than Weak LaNina did. Maybe 1962-1963 played a part in this result. It appears if you have a cold ENSO Neutral it favours cold in all months from November to March with November as the coldest overall compared to average.

Moderate ElNino - This came out as coldest overall, maybe due to the Modoki ElNino effect. Even though November is mild once the main part of winter begins it gets very cold, especially in the January's and again in the March's as well. Almost 1C below average overall is decent enough as a base state. Lets hope for a moderate Modoki ElNino for next winter.

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

Looks like finally this winter both the AO and NAO are about to shift more neutral or even hopefully negative

What also looks more interesting is this chart from Weather is cool showing wind anomalies at different heights above 60N. Look at the far right of the chart. Is that the first signs of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming showing up for the end of January

[Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat]

52 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

P19 is ridiculous! Looks a bit like January 2003, one of the best snow events I can remember down here. M11 closed with loads of snow.

I remember that January 2003 so well. Was at college and got a bit of an easterly early in the month that for me in North Lincolnshire was a bit of a letdown. However the snow event at the end of the month made up for that big time. Gale force nne winds and lots of very heavy snow showers and whiteout conditions at times during some of the showers that came. Would love to see snow showers that heavy and frequent again.

[Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat]

56 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

But to balance things out, just trying to be level headed there are 3 or 4 that are near on Bartletts.

Hey FiftyShadesofSnow, don't start spoiling it already

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

1 hour ago, Purga said:

Nope - no outlier, it (Op run) has reasonable cluster support so far

Also GFS Operational isn't even the coldest one. Where did this output suddenly come from as there was NOTHING AT ALL until today's 12Z GFS run.

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

Anyone wanting any hope of colder weather either later in this winter or for winters to come may want to watch this SST Anomaly animation from NOAA. It shows the changes in the anomalies across the globe but pay particular attention to the NE Pacific in particular. This is how things have changed in the last 6 months.

Notice how warm the NE Pacific was during the summer and some of the autumn. In recent weeks the NE Pacific has started to cool down and further cooler areas are spreading out across the NW Pacific too. Hope this is the end of the warm PDO and by the time next winter comes we will have entered the cold PDO.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

2 minutes ago, Purga said:

P15 gives the SE of England as the coldest place in the entirety of Europe! .

Let's face it, we all need a sense of humour to survive the utter dross of this so called 'winter'.

SE England as coldest in Europe. That must be a first ever if that run came off.

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A couple of GEFS survive the mild carnage but well into FI , apart from that the PV remains unforgiving .

We await the ECM to deliver a miracle !

The PV will go eventually, probably when we get the final warming in spring. By then it will be too warm for snow anyway

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

25 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps

Dear oh dear just had a read on Gavs January outlook and a sneak preview on February. It's best if you don't look at it although that far ahead is just for fun anything past 5 or six days is gospel but just a general trend outlook. Anyway looks as if this pattern is going to continue although after mid January it may be that high pressure gives us some frosts. Just the slightest chance high may drift to Scandinavia, however the chance of it staying there are slim as low pressure pressure to our north will flatten it.

Just to add salt to the wounds sneak preview into February shows  no sign at the moment of a pattern change continuation of south westerlies and rain.

Whether the above will pan out we shall see but it does not make exciting reading

Well I just say bin this winter and roll on 2020/2021. At least it should be the one just after solar minimum with EQBO as well. So far Gavs winter forecast isn't going very well.

Gav went for a slightly colder than average December - Actually ended up around 1C above average

Gav said January would probably be mildest month of the winter but around average - So far not looking good

Gav said February would be coldest month - We shall see

In order to get to his prediction of a slightly colder than average winter overall we are going to need some brutal cold in February or it will end a long way out

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

These runs generally look really bad for cold weather in the UK. Out of the 18Z GFS, 00Z GFS and 00Z ECM the 18Z GFS probably looks the best of a bad selection

03/01/2020 18Z GFS +384 hours

Although mild for UK and western Europe there is a big area of high pressure over Russia and a deep cold pool there. All it needs is for that high to push west or the Azores high to move to Scandinavia but more likely the cold pool over Canada will dominate and force more low pressure through the UK and keep that cold over Russia instead

04/01/2020 00Z GFS +384 hours

This midnight GFS run just looks dire for any cold prospects really over the whole of Europe. Apart from Iceland in the -5C isotherm the rest of Europe is ridiculously warm with those greens and yellows everywhere. It looks like only NW Scotland is below 0C at 850hpa and the "heatwave" continues across most of Europe.

04/01/2020 00Z ECM +240 hours

Although at a different time to the GFS runs this ECM run also looks dire for cold in the whole of Europe. Even Iceland is above 0C at 850hpa. Looks like the UK is the mildest compared with average with those yellow colours showing up.

Although less stormy than 2013-2014 winter so far this one is panning out in a very similar way with all the cold locked up in Greenland and Canada "blowing up" the jet stream and sending one low pressure after another towards NW Europe and keeping a Euro high really in place too. If this carries on we could be contesting one of the mildest winters on record, if not even going for the record itself.

Finally 06Z GFS run complete. The +384 hours chart on this one looks like it could evolve into a colder pattern.

Notice the beginnings of what could turn out to be WAA pushing northwards towards Greenland. That should mean all that cold air over Greenland and the Arctic will be pushed out. Most likely around the High to the east which should also push northwards with the WAA to sit over Scandinavia. Although it looks like a mild chart again this one is much better than the 00Z GFS chart as it has potential to bring in cold east or NE winds a few days on from this if it evolves correctly.

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

According to 'torro'
Daily temp record for Jan 7th is 15c reached in Rhyl in 1934 and St Abbs Head in 1989

The January record is 18.3, in Aber in 1971 and 1958, and Aboyne in 2003.

Wasn't the 2003 record set on the 26th or 27th January 2003.

Here's the midnight chart Monday 27th January with those very mild 850hpa uppers

850hpa temps getting over 10C at this point. If anyone remembers this time they should all know what happened just a few days later

Midnight chart Friday 31st January 2003. Look how much different things are

A 20C change in the 850hpa uppers with the -10C isotherm over the UK and an Arctic blast with snow showers, especially in northern and eastern areas. Hope the same thing can happen this time around.

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

These runs generally look really bad for cold weather in the UK. Out of the 18Z GFS, 00Z GFS and 00Z ECM the 18Z GFS probably looks the best of a bad selection

03/01/2020 18Z GFS +384 hours

Although mild for UK and western Europe there is a big area of high pressure over Russia and a deep cold pool there. All it needs is for that high to push west or the Azores high to move to Scandinavia but more likely the cold pool over Canada will dominate and force more low pressure through the UK and keep that cold over Russia instead

04/01/2020 00Z GFS +384 hours

This midnight GFS run just looks dire for any cold prospects really over the whole of Europe. Apart from Iceland in the -5C isotherm the rest of Europe is ridiculously warm with those greens and yellows everywhere. It looks like only NW Scotland is below 0C at 850hpa and the "heatwave" continues across most of Europe.

04/01/2020 00Z ECM +240 hours

Although at a different time to the GFS runs this ECM run also looks dire for cold in the whole of Europe. Even Iceland is above 0C at 850hpa. Looks like the UK is the mildest compared with average with those yellow colours showing up.

Although less stormy than 2013-2014 winter so far this one is panning out in a very similar way with all the cold locked up in Greenland and Canada "blowing up" the jet stream and sending one low pressure after another towards NW Europe and keeping a Euro high really in place too. If this carries on we could be contesting one of the mildest winters on record, if not even going for the record itself.

[Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat]

22 minutes ago, Erdem said:

Very mild charts again this morning and I would think the possibility to break some records for UK 

Mildest winter or even January on record maybe?

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

34 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Spot the difference

24th Feb 2018

3rd Jan 2020 GFS 06Z +384h Chart

We all know what happened a couple of days later don't we?

 

24 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

The difference is the low pressure over central Southern Europe...look at southern Italy

There is a very slight weak low pressure just over North Africa. May develop and push north a little if the high pressure pushes further into Scandinavia.

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

Spot the difference

24th Feb 2018

3rd Jan 2020 GFS 06Z +384h Chart

We all know what happened a couple of days later don't we?

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

This all looks very interesting on the 06Z GFS run at +384h

First the 500Hpa Temperatures

Finally some WWA showing up on the OP run. Unfortunately it is 384 hours away. Good to see a corresponding cold pool pushing down to the east of the WWA. If only the cold pool was as deep as the one on the USA/Canadian side

The 850hpa temperatures look just as enticing if you hope for a cold spell

Nice to finally see the -5 to -15 temps showing up to our east. All we need now is that WWA to "blow up" the high over Scandinavia and push those cold temps towards the UK. Envious of how much colder the 850hpa temps are to the west and that may be the undoing of any chance of cold.

The North Pole view of the 500hpa temps is also interesting

It not only shows a push of WWA near the UK and western Europe but also another push from the Pacific side too. Looks like the polar vortex is getting pulled apart. If that continues then we could eventually tap into that very cold eastern part of the vortex if pressure rises over the pole and Scandinavia too.

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

That AO is going almost off the scale. Don't think I've ever seen the GFS ensembles so confident of a +5 AO index

At least the NAO is a more realistic positive figure forecast of around +1 NAO index

 

No wonder we are expecting some very mild days in the next week.

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

Anyone who wants to spot nacreous clouds should be in for a treat if this GFS 00z run comes off.

Look how cold it is above the UK and NW Europe, cold enough perhaps for nacreous clouds.

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

Have a look at those 850hpa upper temps over Greenland, Canada and Alaska at +384 hours on the 06Z GFS run.

Don't think I've ever seen the -40C isotherm above those areas since I first saw these charts. Even Siberia is struggling to be cold on this run at the end

Look at the 850hpa anomalies that go along with this chart

Look at all the deep blue with 20C below normal in parts of Alaska, Greenland and Canada and all that red over mainland USA, Europe and Siberia with most of these areas 8 to 12C above normal at 850 hpa. Grim for cold lovers.

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

1 hour ago, Lampostwatcher said:

No greeny high 

No northerly 

No scandy high 

On any models atm 

In the next 2 weeks

You mean like this

All that cold in Canada and eastern USA is curtains for us as far as winter is concerned. Look how deep that low is near Iceland, 932mb. 2013/2014 written all over that chart. Hope that one doesn't verify.

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

9 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Keep that polar vortex away from mainland USA and Canada. Should help the UK get some cold later on if the block sets up in the right place.

[Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat]

1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

Not great is it? I had some optimism for this winter due to the deep solar minimum we have entered.

Best chances of cold weather usually happen at the start of the new solar cycle, especially if it is an odd to even solar cycle so I have little hope this one will deliver much as we are even to odd this time. Best chances of cold are around 2029 to 2032.