qwertyK
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Posts posted by qwertyK
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5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
I don’t mean the rags and a mention on the news….I meant an actual forecast with a 40 on the map (should the charts continue to keep appearing). I don’t agree with the low to mid thirties either. The mean now supports something of at least 35c. We are in the low 30s this week before the really hot stuff arrives anyway.
theweatheroutlook.com is showing 39C in London
Interestingly, that and Google weather is suggesting it will only be partly sunny/cloudy those days which means humidity will be bad, but probably won't reach as high as it could. And theweather.com shows a massive drop in temp, going down to 17-19C and rain
I'm pretty sure theweatheroutlook has also shown 39C in 2019, and indeed, 39C was originally forecast for 2019.
Weather in London - 16 day weather forecast
WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COMLatest 16 day local weather forecast for london. Detailed weather forecast updates 4 times each day to give the very latest prospects. -
2 minutes ago, Sam jackson88 said:
Well Portugal has now declared a 8-day emergency, so if we do hit 40+ I think the UK will also declare a emergency as well
Has that ever happened in the UK before, in 76' or in any other heatwave?
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2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Wonder if this keeps appearing which organisation will stick their neck out first. Can’t see anything being put out there until maybe midweek as they won’t want to cause a sensation and have egg on face if it doesn’t happen.
It's already been on Sky News, LBC, the Mirror, the Mail, the Sun. The experts quoted in these articles have dismissed the idea of 40-43C and said something in the low to mid thirties is far more probable.
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Just now, Djdazzle said:
In answer to a previous post, Paris is not always 2-3 C warmer than London. Today is a case in point, with London actually warmer than Paris.
As a general rule of thumb. Also where did you get your info for that from as the forecast for Paris and London according to google appear to be the exact same - highs of 28C in both cities and lows of 17c in both.
Paris tends to be warmer because its more southerly and I think they have a bigger urban heat issue than London does.
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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
The BBC are now up to 36c for London next Sunday. Seems to be growing confidence now. Also, inline with 00z ECM.
theweatheroutlook was also saying 36C in London next weekend too.
Like I said at the moment its showing 39C in Paris, and London is always a few degrees cooler than that.
I'm really hoping we don't reach anywhere near 40 or 43C.
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2 minutes ago, terrier said:
Weather for the week ahead is going for max temps of 31c next weekend in the south. So don’t think we will need to worry too much about the 40c the gfs and to an extent the ecm is churning out.
Yeah I've seen that though I don't know what models they use. BBC is always pretty conservative, the Weather Office which google uses seems to be okay. Accuweather is never right.
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Just now, MattStoke said:
Because it’s 7 days away.
Suggesting there is still plenty of time for things to change. My money's on it being in the low to mid thirties, 33-36C, maybe 37.
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1 minute ago, kold weather said:
Not just that but we had a HUGE warning shot across the bows in June 2019 when we were a ENE at the surface away from reaching 40-42c back then as well. I've been banging on ever since then saying we should be able to reach 41-42c in the right setup. The thickness and 850hpa certainly supported it, we just had a big undercut from the North Sea. Not looking that likely that saves us this time around.
I'll admit I'm still sceptical we go quite to the heights of the GFS, but even if we don't, the 4th year out of 5 with a 36c+ weather should be another huge warning shot for many.
We didn't have 36C last year? In fact, we barely got to 33C?
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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Air looks dry with very low due points and the low not close enough to introduce any instability or moisture so I’d be surprised if there was any cloud cover.
It’s about a perfect a setup as is possible for record breaking heat, if the plume should make a direct or near direct hit.
If this really is the case, why isn't the Met Office or government warning about it?
In all the heatwaves we've had, we've never managed to break out to 39C, never mind 43C, if the record is broken it will be be a degree max, by 4.3C would be bonkers. I withold my judgement for now
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Just now, tight isobar said:
But- we are in formed/ evolution.. time ahead.. of what is supported, and expected @ thermo increases!.. this being a “ get used to”- prognosis!!!!
49C on the northern coast of france and 43C in the southeast of the UK sounds insanely high. Things like cloud cover may also prevent 40C being reached.
The weather shows Paris will be be 39C on the 16th/17C and that's always a few degrees hotter than London. I think max of 36C in the UK.
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4 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
Surely that would warrant a state of emergency? Those temperatures both day and night are truly unprecedented.
Probably because it's still unlikely. I can't remember if it was 2019 or 2020, or one of those two summers where there was also speculation this sort of scenario would occur.
It didn't.
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38.6C in North Norfolk
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Well, August drawing to an end. Looking at this month's temps, seems like the high for Brentwood, Essex was.....23C. That's insultingly low, pathetically low. I can't even remember the last time we had a day that was say 26C. I've forgotten what summer should actually feel like. Maybe it should feel like this though, and we've just become acclimatised to temps in the mid twenties to thirties.
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2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
Yup, the recent La Nina has certainly helped with that. If we have another La Nina at the end of the year then we may sneak below 2018 though that will also depend on what northern hemisphere synoptics do. If we get a split polar vortex and more in the way of cold air outbreaks over the continents towards November and December, that may suppress global temperatures a bit like what they did in February.
When is an El Niño due? The last proper one was in 2015 which led to that awfully warm wet December, and then there was a weak El Niño in 2019 that led to 21C in feb
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Had to put the heating on yesterday. And wear a coat out. In Essex! It’s August! August used to be a good month for warm weather but now it seems all the heat dies by end of July and August is early autumn...
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Just now, cheeky_monkey said:
wouldn't that make it 2012 then..2015 reached 36c..sure 2014 reached 34c somewhere? as did 2013?
Wow, maybe you’re right
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1 minute ago, Nick L said:
Not sure I agree with that in a warming world. We very narrowly missed out on 30C in OCTOBER not so long ago!
That was at the very start of the month though like the 1st and only occurred because of a build up or heat from September
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3 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:
Yes, I can't see another spell like that happening in September again for a very very long time. Temps above 30 Celsius are difficult to achieve in high summer, let alone during early autumn.
So it's improbable but not impossible.
From a meterological point of view, that spell during Sept 2016 was amazing. As was the autumn 2011 heatwave.
October 2018 was also pretty warm. What’s the likelihood of this in the near future? I mean I can’t see it this year because that time it was after a very hot prolonged summer
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Actually I think this would actually be 5 years not 4, as wasn’t 34C recorded in 2016 in September somewhere?
so theoretically we could get a spell of hot weather in September but it’d have to be pretty exceptional. It’d funny how Southern Europe is ridiculously hot in places yet none of that hot air has made its way north.
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Who knows.
I read recently the gulf stream is at its slowest speed in 1,600 years. It's possible it could stop, and as a result, we'd get much colder winters, and much drier ones too. Probably slightly warmer or drier summers as well. You can see that some pretty extreme cold weather has happened recently in this warming climate, like this winter in Texas and Spain. 2018-2022 according to the Met Office, is a periodw here we will see rather large tempreature anomalies. This period is coming to an end. I'm not a climate scientist, and so I'm skeptical about the very simplistic explanation that suddenly reducing greenhouse gases will stop tempreature rises or even cool the planet, doesn't this take, like years? Either way, the UK is in an enviable position as far as climate change is concerned, I imagine floods will be the biggest risk.
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I believe this is the first summer in 4 years without 34C or 35C being hit somewhere in the UK. Maximum this year is 33C. This summer really is dissapointing, but at the same time, it's probably just average in terms of long term weather? Like looking at some of the tempreature anomalies in parts of europe, records being broken, its nice to have something thats not extreme here
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Wow. We're nearly at the end of April and we still haven't had 20C this month. Had it not been for the warm spell at the end of March we'd still be waiting for our first 20C day. This april feels very cold, especially compared to last year.
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This seems bittersweet - climate change bad, but cold winters for us snow lovers?
Slowing ocean current could bring cold stormy weather to UK
WWW.THETIMES.CO.UKA key ocean current that helps to keep Britain’s weather mild is at its weakest in a millennium, a study has found.Scientists warned that its continued slowing, which has been linked to climate change -
I feel like globally, this is going to have been a cold to very cold winter for the northern hemisphere. Seen Greece lately? Or how places in the US even as far south as Houston are having lows of -9C, snowstorms?
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I might sound like an idiot here, how does a weather forecast work if not like that then?
Yeah theweatheroutlook.com is pretty bad. I remember oen of the models once suggested we'd have 22C in February, think this was like in 2020.