qwertyK
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UK winters: are they getting colder?
qwertyK replied to qwertyK's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
@In Absence of True Seasons It may seem odd, but this is a natural phenonemon due to the Foehn effect. A lot of these ridiculously unseasonable events happen in Scotland. Like I said in december 2019 it reached 18.7c at like 4am in the morning. UK's new warmest December confirmed in Highlands WWW.BBC.CO.UK The data recorded last month at Achfary has been validated by meteorologists and showed a temperature of 18.7C. It had reached similar tempreatures in december in scotland in 1948. Whilst in Jan 2020 it reached 19C in Norway. It got very warm in scotland and northern ireland in like November 2022 High temperatures: NI experiences warmest November night on record WWW.BBC.CO.UK The lowest temperature recorded was 14.5C in County Londonderry, breaking a previous record from 1947. We don't know how unusual these events are, a lot of these places wouldn't have had weather stations historically and so few people live in them it's near impossible to actually confirm. Google forecasted 12C for that Scottish village today. Incidentally, the CET for this month so far is only 0.48C degrees above average. Seems more crazy that last January it was getting up to 20C in much of central/Eastern Europe. I went to Belgrade the other week, first day I got there it was 17C, next day it was 2C and heavy snow. -
UK winters: are they getting colder?
qwertyK replied to qwertyK's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
@Dark Horse I've just seen that, a similar thing happened in Scotland end of December 2021 I think? It was like 18.7 at like 4am in the morning and no one noticed it -
UK winters: are they getting colder?
qwertyK replied to qwertyK's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
December 2022, yeah. Not sure if it was as much snow as in December 2017 but I recall it being very similar. Happened quite suddenly. Got down to well below freezing in the nights. -
UK winters: are they getting colder?
qwertyK replied to qwertyK's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It's odd because the first half of autumn was ridiculously mild, which usually makes for mild winters, plus el nino, but like its getting down to lows of -4C and -5C overnight in quite wide parts of the south of england. I remmeber say winter 2020 i don't think the minima in essex got below 6C. -
UK winters: are they getting colder?
qwertyK replied to qwertyK's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I'm saying within the context of say the last ten years. 2014, 2015, 2016, 2019 and 2020 were all pretty mild winters from what I recall -
UK winters: are they getting colder?
qwertyK replied to qwertyK's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Maybe the title is misleading, as there is a wider european context - some periods of exceptional cold (and warmth) in european winters, like in Spain in 2021, and I think Moscow this year had its snowiest winter, near record cold in Scandinavia as well. That said i do remember last year how ridiculously warm places as far north as poland got in january, like 20c and 27C in the north of spain -
It seems like probably since 2020 that although summer tempreatures are getting hotter, winter feels a lot colder. Probably because we've had some mild winters and very mild winter days, like in 2019 when we had a 21C day in February. But I think about the last few years. The winter of 2021 had a fair bit of snow where I am in the south anyway. The following December in 2022 we had really heavy snowfall and lows of like -6C in my area (essex). March 2023 we had some very late snow. This November I was in Southampton and it snowed and didn't get above zero one day. Then it snowed a few days ago, didn't settle but we've had some very low tempreatures being forecast, again, I speak for the southeast. I know it's nothing compared to say 1963 or other years but it seems like there is a trend towards colder maxima in winter, like I can't remember the last time before 2021 where I live where 2C or 4C was the max forecast for some days unless say, 2018 or 2017. Again not much snow but some very cold temps. I think the current cold weather is quite interesting considering it should be pretty mild given El Nino etc. Feels like summers are getting hotter, and winters are getting colder.
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
qwertyK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not so bad here in S.Essex. 35-36C, even went for a quick run. Highly doubt anywhere today has hit 40C, maybe tommorow though. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
qwertyK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I haven't paid that much attention to the graphs but if the peak will be Monday/Tuesday that is still a week away, and so I am still very cautious about believing anything exceptional will happen. It wasn't forecast to rain for weeks yet we have had a few downpours here in south Essex. 2-3 days ago, Sunday here was being forecast for 36C. It's now being forecast as...28C. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
qwertyK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A little bit of much needed rain here -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
qwertyK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The weather forecast always had it down as cloudy for where I was. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
qwertyK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Weather for me now gone down to just 29c on Sunday , down from like 35 a couple days ago. Monday 33, Tuesday 32c and then back down again What model was predicting 49c for Brittany and the north coast of france ? -
Oh yeah sure but hot countries have things like ac. We don't. Though I don't get why things like train tracks go in our heat but seem to be fine in other countries
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Sir John sounds like some of the people here in the past few days wanting the charts to reach even higher temperatures.
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
qwertyK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Most likely because it's on a hill and you clearly haven't been in years lol towie isn't even a thing round here. I'm not actually in Brentwood I'm in the town next door, Shenfield, it's usually a degree warmer here despite barely being a mile away. Think having the worst air quality in Essex after Thurrock has something to do with it -
Met office saying today could be the hottest day of the year.
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In south essex right now and max today is forecast as 29C. Hottest day of the year my ass
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
qwertyK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
BBC forecast for me has gone from 35C on Sunday to 33C. I'm in southern Essex, so right in the firing line for the heatwave. More places talking about 40C being reached but they're over a day late. If the GFS continues how it has been it's less and less likely we'll break the temp record never mind get to 40C. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
qwertyK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It uses a computer model from The Weather Outlook -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
qwertyK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It uses Theweatheroutlook though which is semi reputable. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
qwertyK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not even 37-38C. Tommorow it was supposed to be 41C. Britain to swelter in temperatures of up to 41C in record heatwave - Wales Online WWW.WALESONLINE.CO.UK Prediction models suggest next Monday (July 11) could see be an 'historic moment' with record temperatures for most of the country, peaking in the south-east of England In fact, these articles about 40C weather seem to go right back to the start of July. -
I would hope common sense would prevail and given its so close to the holidays and Year 11s and Year 13s are already out most will just send home. Or kids won't just show up.
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
qwertyK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Noted -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
qwertyK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And people who work outside too. No one will want to work -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
qwertyK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No I remember it was 2020. I made a thread about it