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SussexSnow

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Everything posted by SussexSnow

  1. SussexSnow
    Blimey - over the past couple of weeks I've been following the models quite loosely, just checking the latest GFS ensemble when I remember, and today I saw more agreement on something interesting next week. Only then did I peruse the other models... Goodness the latest GEM is some eye candy. I'm back baby!
  2. SussexSnow
    You think that's bad. Apparently it's snowing here.
  3. SussexSnow
    There is still a bump of 'New Snow' showing for Horsham from the GEFS, but it's shrunk a little since yesterday
  4. SussexSnow
    There has to be a positive (from a winter perspective) of living on the south coast.
  5. SussexSnow
    I'd settle for that
  6. SussexSnow
    Agreed. As said above, on the locations I'm monitoring, the average has never been so low (-8.9c) as it is now
  7. SussexSnow
    Not completely dry on the ensemble, admittedly for mid Sussex. This is New Snow P23 is the light blue line
  8. SussexSnow
    Crazy cold on the ensemble by the 16th. Average 850hpa temp is -8.9c and some go as low as -14c.
  9. SussexSnow
    Spot the outlier / trend setter* * delete as applicable
  10. SussexSnow
    Why? Are you a royal prince?
  11. SussexSnow
    Snow north of the M4?
  12. SussexSnow
    True, but they both ran cold earlier, so take you pick. Until the ensemble converges we're going to be flip-flopping. At least the majority have 850pha temps down to close to -10c by 15th; in fact the average for the cluster is -6.5C, which is about as low as it's been shown recently.
  13. SussexSnow
    There's the reason, a 17C range - with the GFS Op right at the top of the spread.
  14. SussexSnow
    May I quote you on that? Oh I have
  15. SussexSnow
    Or we'll see toys lobbed everywhere
  16. SussexSnow
    It is very much so. Clean.
  17. SussexSnow
    The Op run is here I think WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP en Open-Data avec une résolution de 0.4°
  18. SussexSnow
    Hopefully this GIF shows the difference. A wedge of 1025hpa has been lost to our south
  19. SussexSnow
    I'm not going to post individual ensemble members (that's some else's job) but there are some very very interesting ways to get cold and widespread snow in the GFS 6z ensemble. Nice to see.
  20. SussexSnow
    Yes. As an example. At day 4 we have a 10c spread at the 850hpa temp level, and over 15c difference a week out. So, all to play for really! This is for Sussex, as we're at the southern extreme in terms of possible outcomes.
  21. SussexSnow
    Yep. The odds are stacked against it, but other than a proper Easterly were hardly in the best locations for cold and snow. I've had snow this winter already.
  22. SussexSnow
    To show the difference, this is for Horsham, the 850hpa temps are pretty much identical, but the T2M are more in line with the 'pack', although still quite high within the overall ensemble.
  23. SussexSnow
    I think at the resolution of the Op run the GFS data point for Worthing includes part of the English channel, so the T2M is often moderated this way.
  24. SussexSnow
    The GFS ensemble T2M chart shows a little uncertainty.
  25. SussexSnow
    We're so used to it by now.
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