Eagle Eye
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Posts posted by Eagle Eye
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This does appear to be a real video as there's a similar shot from further away of the dead man walking structure of one of the tornadoes with multiple large vortexes. Suggestive that it cold well have been violent.
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Horrible horrible night for some people unfortunately. A couple absolutely violent tornadoes last night at the dark hours, the worst time.
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Convective Outlook
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A couple lines of showers and thunderstorms could form in areas of cloud clearance on Friday. With 600+ J/KG of SBCAPE possible in areas aiding sporadic lightning. The two lines most likely appear to be forecasted roughly from the SW ENE-wards towards Essex and perhaps parts of Suffolk and another one likely weaker from south Wales towards north eastern parts of England.
Both of these should move slightly SSE after forming in the afternoon and fade into the evening having formed along wind convergence zones forcing PV lobes in those 2 areas it appears, the southern mode having more energy to work with.
Cloud coverage and saturation appears to be quite high in most areas limiting the lightning potential of showers and how many showers form. 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE in arwas may help with that but not much.
Some small hail is possible because of the energy but most of it is held in the low-levels. Weak shearing limits that again.
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Quite the most incredible radar and cone to multi vortex tornado. Lots of photos taken from Twitter from lots of different accounts:
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Sleet haily rainy mix went horizontal at such a strength you could see the curtains falling even in the dark for about 20 seconds.
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Another good day including some cool mammatus..
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I was supposed to have a forecast out today but unfortunately the person that makes the maps couldn't make one today. Heres my discussion.
A trough behind an occluded front should bring heavy showers to the south coast. A Theta-E lobe advecting northwards with the trough will allow for channel and south coast showers throughout the afternoon and evening behind a clearing occluded front to the north and east which may also bring the risk of the odd sporadic lightning strike earlier in the day to a lot of the country but the risk is quite low.
This moisture convergence should form widespread clusters of showers, some reaching 7km tall or around 23,000 feet potentially. Given relatively high shearing and 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE in areas, lightning is likely but mostly should be sporadic because of the messy nature of the showers and given similar events, very little could come out of the lightning but if they linger into the evening and scatter, I've seen lightning increase then.
Small chance of a Supercell and potentially a tornado mainly in the SE given the shearing but apart from that, there's really little support for either except low LCL's. Small hail may form but I wouldn't say is likely just given that the MLCAPE is mostly quite weak and mixed in at the warmer lower levels rather than where the temperature is below freezing.
High saturation for a lot of the south also limits lightning but having looked at many soundings, the saturation varies a lot from place to place and some areas have very weak saturation with favourable lightning conditions just miles away from high saturation and unfavourable lightning conditions. It's a very messy setup which makes it a bit more difficult to forecast for specifics.
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If you think we have it bad with Storm setup busts, look at the CINH on this sounding, any setup would be a bust
. Not much buoyancy in that atmosphere either.
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Sheesh
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East Chicago Indiana tornado on Facebook
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Tornado on Adam Lucio's stream it appears. Mean storm.
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Reed dominating as usual, already up close and personal with the crazy storms of course. Started off very quickly. Got close to a funnel cloud that was just about touching the ground and as always with Reed it was a "Big time tornado" but definitely a fast start.
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WeatherArc I've got a driving lesson at 6:45 so I may as well stay up for it ha ha. For early season this is a ridiculously high end potential but very very conditional.
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Focus is now on tomorrow
All modes risks.
Conditionally severe tornadic potential I would say based off mode. High 3CAPE and low freezing with a classic C low-level hodograph is looking fairly favourable for severe hail I would say.
Along with that, the low LCL's and fairly high DCAPE should convert a lot of that into downwards momentum for severe wind gusts as well. Don't think it's massive and only slightly severe favourable DCAPE but if linear mode can be upgraded to further, that could go hatched but I think we're too late for that strong of an upgrade.
The low LCL's, high vorticity and low-level energy could contribute to tornadic development. This would especially be evident with isolated Supercells away from the clustering currently forecasted. An isolated Supercell taking up the environmental potential could cause a significant tornado but it's very conditional on that isolated Supercell forming in all the mess.
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Another good convection day.
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The photos from last nights coastal skimmers/channel showers and storms.
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Another day, another set of circumstances for me missing lighting. First off, first mini-distant storm, had to charge my camera. Second mini-distant storm set camera to 20 second exposures automatically for a burst, 2 seconds after the burst finishes, lightning strikes, a CG, that I saw on my camera as it was on but it had just stopped filming and if there would've been 1 more picture to the burst I would've got the lightning.
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Can't confirm it but think that's the first lightning of the season seen for me, big distant flash whilst I was lying in bed and looked out and saw some CB's also lightning has shown up in the channel recently.
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Pre-multi clustered storm thingy.
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Fun examples of a leading stratiform region from the cold front driven first squall ahead/in line with the low/developing low to it's north tilted SE.
Whereas the NE tilted system with a leading stratiform region from a trough behind the low's centre.
Leading stratiform region - Winds flowing back to front.
Trailing stratiform region - Winds flowing from front to back.
With the pulling towards a low pressure it makes total sense.
Let's talk cell motions as well.
Following the shearing direction. The majority of the low-level shear should contribute to NE movement, whereas cell motion from a lot of what I see appears to follow the upshearing direction which is SE.
Hence the bottom cell moves SE whereas the system moves NE. Also watch how the cell just to the south of the one I highlighted also moves SE.
Storm movement is still NE here with the shearing direction NE but cell motion should also be NE as the upshear is slightly NE of surface shear.
There we go, yes they're all moving NE. There's still replacement cycles though and especially away from France as we've seem it can easily get messier over the channel.
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Convective Outlook
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A couple different linear modes appear likely to push through the south and eastern parts of the country but some models do push convection into the midlands and the north as well though. Most convection appears to be likely in the southern parts of the country.
An initial system should move through the country in the morning moving NE. Hitting the SW between about 4-8am then moving NE fairly slowly till it hits east Anglia and maybe the SE around 11am maybe delayed till mid day. This could also extend further north into the midlands and the north depending on the size of the PV lobe. Fairly good initial 3CAPE and low-level shearing may favour some tornadic potential but there's still a lot of differences in modelling. Whilst not particularly strong lapse-rates and weak MLCAPE, there may be favourable kinematics for longer lived storm cells and parcels parallel to the flow for 7km cloud heights. The strong buoyant airflow in the SE around mid day near the surface with negative lifted index between the surface and 850s staying strong for most of the SE. Lightning should mostly stay sporadic but for the time of year it's quite a strong system.
Given potential cell clustering and momentum exchanges, near severe hail and tornadic potential with turbulent surface flow are possible. The cell clustering is because the next system follows close behind or is part of the main system and clusters up in the eastern part of the country. Eventually showers should start scattering in the afternoon and clearing later on, most of the potential is held in the south and the east mid day, then in the morning further west and there's more mixed signals.
Alongside that, wind gusts are likely to be strong because this all happens with a low moving through for the south mainly. Potentially severe wind gusts for coasts and slightly inland.
There is potential for a squall line to form if vorticity is strong enough, if that does happen than severe wind gusts inland are also very possible. There's a lot of mixed signals on whether there's merging of systems or whether they disconnect or don't disconnect so it's hard to tell whether a squall line will form.
In western Scotland there's a rash of heavy showers likely along rolls of vorticity. Potentially a more favourable area for lightning than the southern mode because of more widespread 50+ J/KG of 3CAPE but less likely to have severe threats associated.
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Great example of a cycling mini-squall line today. These occur with interactions between the cold pool strength and low-level shear strength.
1) Tight squall line with weaker trailing stratiform behind it, loses shape as the stratiform region is stronger.
2) Development of cell into the system temporarily outbalances the cold pool and the frontal lobe of the mini-squall tightens. Except for where it disconnects further north with less momentum and shearing effects.
3) Once the new cell cycles into the system, the cold pool re-strengthens and timilts the updrafts back for most of the frontal lobe of convection leading to a loss in the uniform linear mode. Squall line loses shape.
4) As this loses energy, the stratiform region becomes the dominant force and it loses all shape. This is where the mini-squall is unlikely to reform properly till it re-encounters energy.
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SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted
Showery day, most interesting in a while.