Eagle Eye
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Posts posted by Eagle Eye
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My best guess is invitation right by the coast with coastal areas doing the best as the occluded front hits the coastal energy.
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Cloud height building in front and showers, instability in the channel potentially building.
AROME upgrade as well.
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Not much of a tower though and I'd much rather be looking for accas and potentially cirrus. It can just be passed off as afternoon spring energy currently.
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We seem to be following the AROME but 2 hours behind schedule. Apart from that not too much going wrong.
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For distant lightning
Iso all the way up and if you can work out where you're pointing zoom in. If that's too much after looking back at what you've captured, turn it down. Slowly turn it down when you get brighter bolts. Or you can also do what @ChannelThundersaid, this is just for if you can't change those other settings or don't know how to yet.
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Yes pre-frontal stuff does look stronger, often the case. I suspect the main band will become thundery rain and if we don't get pre-frontal then my outlook today looks rather stupid because I'm relying on them
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Interested in everyone's thoughts.
The SB storms over France using up the energy currently are very unlikely to make it across the channel. Theoretically elevated storms hopefully form in the mid-channel and go towards the south coast ahead of the frontal system, however, what is the extent thst the SB storms take up the energy. Do storms take in energy not only where they form, but also from around them? If so, we might lose tonight's risk because of this. Similar events have happened before but I've also seen surprise SB storms form instead with weak energy left or stuff in front of the system but bigger events typically. So, wondrring how much storms affect the environment ahead of them or do these become favourable ahead of them with some sort of gravity wave like forcing?
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Thunderspotter I have a camera but have forgotten the make of it to be honest
I'm trying to take 1 minute exposure pictures with it in practice for bigger storms so when I get to bigger storms I can get more than one lightning strike in a frame. I can also use my phone but I'll probably just video with it, so I don't miss lightning which is a common problem with me and my camera as I keep it on low iso. If you have or eventually get a camera, I'd keep it on quite a low iso even at dark, as otherwise CG's may be overblown. I think I use 800 iso or maybe 80, one of those two and that means the CG's thst surprise you that would be the best pictures show up. That to me, is better than going for the mediocre lightning, I'll miss that for the CG's.
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Tomorrow is a widespread shower risk followed by another night risk but less widespread (also less conditional) tomorrow night that looks like it'll be the coastal grazers with lightning spread out across the channel as it moves east. A fairly common occurrence for early season for recent years and no one really talks about them much but they're great for photography if you've got a camera that works at night with long exposure photos as they tend to be isolated and throw out bright lightning occasionally. We'll see if they're still forecast when I do tomorrow's forecast though. The daytime showers seem nailed on and aren't a half bad start to storm season.
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Thanks again , hopefully tonight has some kind of pay off. It's a hugely risky night as it's very conditional the threat but something worth keeping an eye on in my opinion. WRF does what I think could happen in the best case scenario with 1000+ J/KG of MUCAPE and bear in mind it's not even April yet. Sorry its an awkward map to work out where we are.
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Thunderspotter heavy frontal rain by the looks of it with perhaps isolated lightning but that may curse the whole system
. We'll have to see. Also thank you, it's now my second year working with my friend who makes the maps and I do the discussion for these. We've been doing quite well this year but he can only edit and save the edit like 2 times a day so it's quite difficult to get a good map that's to all of our mini groups satisfactions and something may come and change our expectations. So I think we do well considering.
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I don't necessarily agree with the slight risk into the SE but gotta be brave I guess.
Convective Outlook
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Potentially very interesting Theta-E envelope from the SE ejects NW through the south providing a platform for potentially a mass of showers and storms to hit the south coast in the evening andor overnight. Also the potential for some hefty showers in Ireland throughout the day with some lightning potential.
In Ireland, the potential is there for some heavy showers to form along some weak buoyant forced air, 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE in areas will help force some low topped showers and storms spread mainly through western Ireland throughout the day with quite high saturation helping stop most lightning activity and keeping it sporadic.
Meanwhile in the south, slightly ahead or rather just latching onto the front of an advecting occluded front, is an area of buoyant air in a thin strip pushing through sometime between about 5-10 pm for coastal areas and thst may potentially allow for some storms to embed themselves into the front or become pre-frontal mode storms. If they embed themselves into the front, they're likely to become thundery showers given similar situations, it seems almost as if the energy that they hold, is spread out into the front when they join it. However, the ones (if any) that form ahead and stay ahead for longer could become fairly potent.
For the SE, showers and storms could have a decent chance of arriving before the front with them pushing in from Belgium moving NW, they'd also have a very short time over the channel compared to some other places. However, that may not matter as the cool channel water temperature may be missed by the storm because there's a surface inversion that could form in the evening with the moving buoyant strip, and not only does it avoid the channel, it helps for the energy to be held in the layer with the lowest saturation. Also, timing may not be as much of an issue; with the bending of the buoyant strip and the front potentially not even reaching here, it allows for multiple hours in which formation of storms is possible. However, a problem with theis whole system is feeble MLCAPE and how much of that is because the surface inversion inhibits the use of the lowest 100mb lifted to the level of free convection and the fairly well energised mid-layer on the soundings suggest that, even though it's still not much more, I've seen similar events do quite well once that surface inversion layer is in place, especially with the buoyancy in place. A forcing band also appears there, even on models that don't convect the actual forcing.
Then the next area is the central south having been in the least cloudy environment for most of the day just south of the central south in channel up until the buoyancy hits means it's primed for quick convection. This again appears to be because of a surface inversion allowing for elevated showers and storms to form ahead of the front or perhaps in it it if its broken up and that could still work. Again weak energy but the models overdoing the weakness of it. Another area for these to develop. This area continues to be highly saturated throughout the day though and doesn't weaken the saturation at the mid-levels before the evening which may keep away lightning potential.
Those are the main areas but most of the south coast does have the potential there but very low model agreement so we're sticking to a slight risk to the south and keeping it in the low risk and giving it an area of interest (AOI) for the main portions of the convection potential. No real severe potential exists, likely due to the elevated nature of these if they do form at all, there's a chance they keep away from the south coast, however there is some wind gusts potential given the downwards energy that the storms may hold but it's still pretty weak.
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Convective Outlook
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Sporadic showers will develop across W Eng Ire & Scot today bringing the risk of the odd / couple of lightning strikes.
During the night / overnight, a trough will advect into SW Eng bringing the risk of a few rumbles/strikes, mainly in the Eng Channel
Sorry for no full discussion, not really worth it.
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Don't know if this has been said yet but yesterday may be quite the day with the hail, pretty surprisingly large hail for the event, American style hail even with weak CAPE and strong low-level shear. May do a full case study.
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Convective Outlook
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Widespread 50+ J/K of 3CAPE should allow for some widespread shower and storm activity to form throughout Friday, mainly in the afternoon. Fairly strong buoyancy in areas but mostly modest should allow for some stronger storms to form, mainly in the west moving towards the NE later, along with Ireland but still sporadic lightning appears more likely, given there's less epicentres of energy.
With weak deep-layer shear, upscaling is unlikely and Supercell potential is quite weak. So should mostly be single cell modes, scattered through a lot of the country.
Generally seems unsupportive of severe modes but hail may be a possibility and still a fairly blustery day. Though likely not that stronger under the showers.
Any potential organisation or the best chance of a Supercell appears to be in the northeast with the strongest of the PV lobes. Along with fairly strong 3CAPE.
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Slightly surprised with the hail to be honest, strong low-level winds with that low-level jet and modest deep-layer shear. That likely means that it's surface based and the low zero levels allows it to take up a lot of energy in the hail growth zone.
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Already quite a big storm for March and we haven't reached afternoon heating, Im not going to complain about what we're seeing so far even if it doesn't look like I'll be hit by a storm soon. Looks like we're going to have another quick start to storm season with potential that we don't see from 7 days out much and usually starts looking good a few days before and delivers like last year started off. Whilst Spanish plumes often end up in stronger and more memorable storm events, usually at night, which is in my opinion the best time for storms, these types of days are still up there. Especially if they can go into the evenings like yesterday.
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- Popular Post
Convective Outlook
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A complex system of showers and multi-cellular clusters of storms mainly for southern and central England moving NE throughout the day with lots of trailing showers. Strong surface energy forced onto surface-based buoyant airflow with high-level shearing, stretching the vorticity streamwise for strong low-level helicity.
100+ J/KG of 3CAPE will help aid strong forced bands of showers and storms capable of organised lightning but mostly sporadic, mainly in the SW, central south, southern Wales and parts of central England. Mainly in the early afternoon and lasting throughout into the evening though. Perhaps waning late evening to just weak showers overnight.
Forcing bands will help with the momentum and buoyancy to allow these to form and also become the central potential for severe weather. These low-level vorticity forcings, where they are strongest can force taller towers with almost their own identity depending on the strength, along with where they crossover with the strongest 3CAPE for low-level energy that can go into working with the low-level shear and potentially form a tornado. Especially, with near surface storms with higher wind friction near the surface which can sometimes force the start to a tornado (apparently) and it's a very interesting case as to if and where these form if they do for future forecasting. Also a potential for coastal tornadic activity with the showers and storms with the friction.
Isolated showers in Ireland and northern Ireland, mainly northern Ireland are possible. Perhaps a small chance of a lightning strike with those. As well as that, a band of rain that may have embedded towers looks to hit the SE in the day on a few forecasts and the main storms may hit the SE and the east and renew late evening with perhaps some re strengthening of the Theta-E in the region. Again, that may allow for some lightning to sporadically occur.
Generally though, the main potential is for sporadic and then some fairly frequent lightning in the central south, up to central England, south Wales and south western parts of England. Along with tornadic potential with this, but what would likely be weak tornadic activity unless the energy increases further.
Wind strength is also likely to be gusty with these. Both by the low placed over the UK and the storms themselves with all the low-level forcing.
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WeatherWatchmanG Your location being west London suggests you're nowhere near the potential tomorrow at least.
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For stronger UK tornadoes you are totally right there in my opinion. For the bigger outbreaks with weaker tornadoes, it's the north Atlantic lows over the colder parts of the year that seem to do best. Especially ones that can combine with a Theta-E arm from wherever with increased moisture.
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Ben Sainsbury Quite often the case with the UK, it's of ifs and buts...
If anything, if it was summer, we could well have that much energy. However, this setup won't happen in summer because of sods law.
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Buoyancy is high, streamwise vorticity in a high LLS environment, if this can line up properly with high 3CAPE which is there and even on that sounding, I see no real reason why there can't be a tornado at all. High momentum inside the storm is likely with conditions for PV towers with potential momentum buildiers as well. However, saturation is often an issue and with the developments here, I think it could be an issue for a lot of the strongest hooked places. Longest lasting storms will have the best chance, it's not a real early type of event, instead, a tornado would want the air parcel to have the longest time to take up energy.
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31 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
Tomorrow is very fascinating for low-level disturbances. High surface energy, lots of low-level shearing and helicity, especially coastal bound with the coastal fringe friction we've seen before but the surface friction in general could be very important as if a surface based and I mean very low storm could form, then that surface shearing which appears likely to be stretched streamwsie almost entirely with the amount of energy going to rotation, there's a small chance of a fairly significant tornado forming. That's worst case scenario though and I suspect would require an initial Supercell and an almost entirely clear initial formation for the storm to grow in.
Sounding to prove it. That low-level hook is extremely rare for the UK.
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Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Something something it's the hope that kills you. Don't expect frequent lightning at this time of the year, it's still the UK and it's not lots of energy.