Eagle Eye
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Posts posted by Eagle Eye
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Sorry yes meant northwest. So used to things moving northeast.
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Day 3 risk for Wednesday that'll be updated by the time we get to Day 2 and Day 1. We're going to start doing this for events well signalled in advance.
On Wednesday, an upper low is expected to form over Germany and Benelux, ushering in a relatively warm Theta-E airmass along the northern and eastern parts of the occluded front.
Forecast models indicate relatively high CAPE values (700 - 1500 J/kg) late on Wednesday, a rarity for May according to climatology. By late afternoon/early evening, a shortwave from the southeast will trigger the development of a wave along the frontal boundary, increasing the potential for dynamic rainfall. Isentropic upglide on the north-eastern flank of the frontal wave will lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms over southeast England during the evening hours. Strong deep directional and speed shear will facilitate organized thunderstorms, fuelled by warm, moist inflow from easterly low-level winds. The potential for upscale growth into a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) exists as the thunderstorm complex drifts northeast across the Midlands. Hazards associated with this complex include hail, gusty winds, lightning, and localised surface water flooding.
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Convective Outlook
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During the early hours of Monday, a low pressure will track into Ireland which will clear into Scotland throughout the morning.
Into the late morning / early afternoon period, Cape levels will start to once again pick up across Ireland at around 200J/KG to 400J/KG allowing intense showers to form across the Central spine of Ireland. These showers may develop into 1 or two thunderstorms however, lightning will mostly remain isolated / sporadic.
Heading into the late afternoon/early evening period, these showers will track in a NE/E direction towards E parts of Ireland & Northern Ireland which will also bring the risk of isolated / sporadic lightning. Further shower development can be expected across.
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Incredible
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The outbreak went very significant overnight unfortunately
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Convective Outlook
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A mass of rain from a low pressure system should clear by late morning or early afternoon in the south and mid afternoon further north leaving behind some energy forced with a wind convergence zone in England. Meanwhile in Ireland similar lines of convergence should form and help convection with rising low-level temperatures amidst slightly falling pressure.
Bands of forcing behind the clearing low pressure over England should allow for some showers to be forced where energy can rise the most. This is most likely in areas where the sun can come out, just behind the strongest of the forcing bands which hug close to the low, but so does the cloud. Limiting shower depth and the strength of convective tower potential, unless clearing can become more widespread in the higher forced areas mainly in the SE and east Anglia where showers also have more moisture to feed off for that convection.
Lapse-rates are strong enough for some small hail to form, but given the weak CAPE, I can't see much forming. Nor can I see much in the way of lightning because of the saturation associated with the area behind the low pressure system.
In Ireland the forcing bands are more connected with the potential for convection because of less favourable conditions for thick cloud cover. Therefore stronger lift is likely to occur here and force a few showers.
Stronger energy should take up more of the moisture even though it's quite weak and may lead to some heavy rainfall associated with these and they could also form into a proper line of convection by the afternoon if enough shearing were to be present. If they do, I suspect they could sustain further east than the models suggest hence why it's been extended into the Irish Sea and western Wales just in case, with a very small chance of a Supercell but shearing is lacking much strength to really push that risk.
However, most likely is that these are to remain rather weak and lightning is still a fairly small risk for now. Low-level lapse-rates are strong here and so small hail is possible however unlikely to be much more than 1/4 of an inch as the MLCAPE barely reaches past 300 J/KG.
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WeatherArc It's broken the Nadocast scale. It's the 80% counter which wasn't even on the chance box.
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And so it begins.
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Shear is more significant than most models showing and saturation even better for what you'd typically see. This has that feel that it'll be nothing or very significant.
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Taking a look at yesterday versus today.
Substantial low-level shear, but given the weak energy at the surface, it appears that the very low LCL's significantly helped with tornadic production. Something to keep an eye on for events that feel like they might not be so big just because of the other signals.
Comparing that to today's risk, significantly more shearing and fairly similar CAPE, along with a more typical saturation profile. However, the LCL's vary a lot, theoretically this has higher end potential, but I suspect there will be less significant tornadoes, but there's more favouring long track potential.
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More to add to the incredible photos.
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We might have so many classic images from last night.
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Convective Outlook
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During Saturday Morning, an occluded front will slowly lose its strength fizzling out over Southern England. Late morning, early afternoon, a front from France will advect north towards the UK. Ahead of this front across S/SW England a convergence line should develop allowing showers to develop. Alongside with this convergence line, comes forcing which will force the showers to develop & grow in height with shallow CAPE being present. This could allow a few lightning strikes from these showers, however confidence remains relatively low once again.
During the afternoon, showers should have fully developed more focussed towards SW England as the front starts clipping south England. As the front arrives, there is also a chance of a few lightning strikes on the East rear off this front, but once again confidence remains relatively low.
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What looked to me like ridiculously low LCL's and high low-level shear counteractdd fairly weak surface energy and not brilliant saturated profiles for already one of the biggest outbreaks in the last few years and probably the one with the most significant tornadoes in recent memory. Today has the potential to do the same but that morning convection might save us from that. We shall see.
Oklahoma City unfortunately in the middle of the moderate risk.
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This outbreak isn't stopping for anyone
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Kansas is also having tornadoes along with Nebraska and the Texas tornadoes. A lot going on at the moment.
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Reminds me of Soso-Bassfield tornado
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Devestating damage
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This event refuses to give up unfortunately
This event refuses to give up unfortunately
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Everything is happening very quickly at the moment
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Aaron Jayjacks has got it
Someone has likely got a classic shot of this if this one doesn't become a classic
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Cannot believe it
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
viking_smb
Update coming tonight. I suspect we're going for a small slight for now but that may move in area depending on 15Z UKV and model updates. This looks to be a moderate eventually as long as it remains on the models.