Eagle Eye

April 15

Yeah seems the spot. The only model that convect significantly the NAM 3KM has the best handle on the moisture advection at the moment. Central Jansas has a great environment but a large cap in place, Nebraska would be a more sure fire bet but less off an incredible wind field environment.

Central Kansas.

Central southern Nebraska.

Also a reminder of the Oklahoman environment just in case. That wind field is potentially violent but thankfully there's a surface inversion and storm initiation looks to upscale too quickly once it gets going.

April 15

Convective Outlook ️

Scattered showers will develop across Eng bringing the risk of sporadic lightning within most intense cells which also may contain hail, but nothing severe worthy.

April 15

WeatherArc

Hatched tornado risk. Looks like I'm staying up tonight.

April 14

Convective Outlook ️

An active cold front is developing just of the coast of W Scot which will track SE across the country bringing the risk of the odd lightning strikes, 60mph gusts & a brief possible tornado. T-storms are also expected for W Scot where a SLGHT has been issued. Perhaps a re-strengthening towards the Lincolnshire corridor but not enough confidence in how it'll evolve for that.

April 12

Monday is very interesting with high end potential. Hooked low-levels with enough CAPE allowing significant risks for tornadic activity to occur. The very high buoyancy will help likely with breaking any cap in place and the lower the CAPE is as long as there's still enough for severe thunderstorm, the less likely of a messy setup there it.

On the ejecting side of a trough with advancing shear and a lobe of shearing into the western parts of Oklahoma and into central Northern Kansas appears to be roughly where this convection should be held. That shearing is by far strong enough for tornadic risks to be there with this but we'll likely have to wait for the HRRR to get a more accurate view as the NAM can be quite poor at times.

The soundings have a stretched and strong low-level wind field with mostly streamwise vorticity and a classically significant tornadic saturation profile. However, there is some lack of low-level CAPE and that'll likely have to be watched closely as a potential bust mode.

April 9

Ben Sainsbury

Yeah, probably the best one I've captured because I've managed to find some new places in the village that I can quickly run to it and watch it envelop houses, may be better for lightning photography in the future. There was also thunder rumbling away inside the storm, not half bad for April.

April 8

Another little timelapse. Excuse the high brightness at the start, it lowers quickly though.

April 8

Edited a few images to what they looked like looking at my camera rather than what came out.

April 8

Straight off my camera, quite often my camera likes low saturated photos so excuse if they look fairly black and white. Still an insane experience though.

April 8

Possible elevated Supercell here earlier

April 8

This is what I mean by when I've told people that it was menacing. Just look at it off my camera.

April 8

Quite possibly an elevated Supercell and some of my favourite photos I've ever taken. It was incredibly menacing as it moved it. Lots of striations showed themselves occasionally.

April 8

Bolt From Blue

Looks like it. Got insane photos.

April 8

Oh for a little bit more favourable lightning conditions.

April 8

This is ramping up though, starting to gain a proper shelf cloud. The definition on this is crazy.

April 8

Smells of bust. That's why I didn't want to go moderate.

April 8

The storm that's supposed to be over Amiens by now hasn't formed, potentially a good sign. Seems to be running a little late with everything though.

April 8

Southern Storm Thank you, just a case of waiting to see what happens now. Forget the models and hope for the best, blue skies here though and some accas on the sky are good signs.

April 8

Jamie M Agreed, we are once again looking at France and hoping they don't sort of take any potential energy for our storms as they often do, hence why I only wanted a slight risk. There just too much going against it at the moment.

April 8

I'm not convinced of the moderate and wanted to go with the slight with AOI risk that we made but Jay went with the moderate so here's today's risk.

Convective Outlook️

50+ J/KG of 3CAPE could form over the SE during the evening hours along an envelope of deeper moisture pushed by a forcing lobe north of the original one over France. This could help push a few thunderstorms to form mainly in the SE but perhaps in areas further north along the east and areas a bit further west along the south coast. Also, an area of storms could form mostly in the Irish Sea but hit the Welsh and southeastern Irish coasts.

The further south this forced band in the SE or eastern part of the UK is, the worse it is, as the France storms expand north, those storms could become part of some sort of MCS or cluster of cells and weaken as they could become constructive momentum feeders for the French cells. Also, it's not guarantee that the forcing will be enough to get meaningful CAPE together and instead, we'll be relying on initiation further west over northern France pushing into the SE, which is looking like the most likely scenario on the models and it's half and half as to whether the SE and eastern parts get anything. Perhaps they could survive the channel because they are likely to be the only storms or the day and so the CAPE hasn't been taken up, or they could force new cells to form ahead or along with them on the south coast into a cluster that the shearing favours.

There's a small chance of a tornado within this given the low-level shearing but the energy is likely too lackluster to really help. That also likely means hail would be kept to quite small.

No matter where there storms form, 500+ J/KG of MUCAPE appears likely and it could reach up to even just a bit more than 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE mostly held beyond a surface inversion, which if that holds, could help stop surface storms from forming in France and go immideately to elevated storms, likely to be less severe, but bring a higher risk of lightning for eastern parts of the country, mainly the SE.

DCAPE could be enough for some meaningful but less than severe wind gusts with these. However, the energy is what looks to keep it sub severe, it doesn't seem to reach the 500?+ J/KG of DCAPE for downdraft to be meaningful enough for severe wind gusts from the potential storms.

Lightning could be fairly frequent from these especially as they appear to miss the highest of the saturation that is held in the lower levels. However, there appears to be still some fairly strong mid-level saturation for the storm to work through along with a lot of moisture to slightly dampen lightning risk and increasing the small flash flooding risk.

The WRF is especially strong with all this, giving some areas 1000+ J/KG of MUCAPE with a hooked low-level where just enough low-lebel energy is present, beating the surface inversion but over the SE, for a small tornadic risk.

If surface based energy can properly be forced as the WRF suggests over the SE then we could well see very frequent lightning and storms with severe capabilities but only realltr the WRF is that severe with this energy its showing. However, it's got many previous events of similar nature right whilst other models have struggled, so it's something to keep an eye on.

Buoyancy shouldn't bet too much of an issue, it's kind of just there, however that's for the models where the forcing band is evident. If it isn't then the lift in the atmosphere probably won't be enough anyway and there'd be too much opposing the storms. Hence why it's such a difficult forecast for eastern parts of the country shown by all the model differences that are still very much evident.

Just enough energy of about 300+ J/KG of MUCAPE over the SE Irish and Welsh coastal risk could allow for a band of storms to form into a cluster quickly into the late evening, perhaps staying in the Irish Sea but could hit coasts as rit moves north. There's good model agreement that these should form though.

Here's the risk that I wanted to go with. But we'll see, I was more worried about the fact that it's very 50/50 on the models so I don't think a moderate would be an accurate representation of the risk.

April 7

Lots of differences for tomorrow mgohts potent potential storm risk with some severe hints. Most models have it sliding desperately just out of reach from us, but the UKV has more developments for the eastern parts and quite a strong system forming. Likely a case of we'll see what happens and model trends.

This is occuring on a lobe of forcing within a deeper moisture band ejected from northern France area, leading to development of what appears to be a shortwave trough for those potential showers or storms within it. That band is forced up because of the low to the SW, the positioning of that being very important.

3CAPE is just about warranting of severe potential, but I suspect the UKV would be more of an advection of that surface energy. This is given there's a deeper pool over northern France that's around 200 J/KG of 3CAPE according to the Swiss models.

Hearing is very much sort of there, especially over the mainland parts. That may warrant some kind of severe threat, I'll wait till tomorrow to properly go into it. Whilst not major, the low-levels are especially sheared.

Fairly decent CAPE on the UKV shown, but likely not enough for all the showers forced to have lightning within them, only mainly the ones in the SE. The UKV can tend to underdo the energy though and especially has recently with the early season risks its been quite low compared to some of the other models.

Saturation looks high though. That'll likely keep the lightning down to a minimum unless it trends down. Lots of potential moisture for flash flooding on the other hand.