Eagle Eye

Convective Outlook️ With Storm Ciaran hitting throughout Thursday morning and into the mid-late afternoon hours, maybe lingering into the late evening, it'll bring heavy showers with it with on and off blustery showers mixed in with longer spells of rain. Mainly along the south coast for the wind but some severe windy conditions up to Cambridge area possible and a similar line for the blustery showers to form. Some more frontal rain not associated with much of a risk except a sparodic lightning strike further north. There is some CAPE around, with areas of 500+ J/KG of MLCAPE and so some sparodic strikes throughout the storms length is possible. As the storm reaches Cornwall early morning, some sparodic lightning is possible along with 90+ mph wind gusts along the coasts and 70+ mph gusts inland. Ahead of the main intense wind gusts, some heavy showers in area of 200+ 3CAPE could move into the SE. This has large buoyancy and suggests some hail potential. However, the LLS being in excess of 50 knots in some places also means thst if vorticity can be stretched streamwise, there's some tornadic potential. Along the south coast and slightly inland, there's a general chance of a tornado throughout the storm with the LLS available. The biggest potential does appear to be with that SE risk. Any tornado is likely to be brief and weak though. However, a sig tor parameter of potentially 0.4 is something to keep an eye on as its fairly rare for the UK. Later into the morning, the rain becomes more frontal in the SW but the wind keeps up till late morning, slowing down from the peak in the early afternoon and in the late afternoon slowed down to sub severe wind gusts. Similar timings along the south coast and into the SE but may not leave till late evening. The strongest wind gusts in the S and SE looks to be in that 90 mph region, in the channel, 110+ mph wind gusts possible. Further north and upto Cambridge sort of line, peak wind gusts are more likely to be late morning and early afternoon where the storm peaks in Northern extent of wind gusts. As with friction, wind gusts look more likely to peak at 50mph widespread rather than the extremes along the coasts. With the amount of blustery rain and frontal rain, places along the south coast and inland up to the M5 line could see 50+ mm of rain in 24 hours. Further north and some places could reach 30+ mm of rain in 24 hours. The SWISS-EZ4 even peak around 80+ mm of rain in isolated spots in the SW. So severe wind gusts, flooding, small hail and isolated lightning, mainly in the very early morning, are all possible. Along with a chance of isolated tornado, mainly in the very early morning hours, main chance being in the SE.

Here's the brightened image of the shelf cloud, can't get rid of the noise sorry.

Some more bits, a couple from last night, the first one one from last night I'll probably try and brighten at some point and then some from today. I like the one through the window with rain, has a certain feel to it.

Went to try and see anything, realised that I'm looking through a mass of rain and gave up. Oh well, I think it's onto next year for me now.

For some reason every image is darker than the originally were but here's there sequence of events that went from normal night to apocalyptic, the darkness is slightly too much because it's hard to get the shelf cloud detailing that is there.

The storm just turned night to NIGHT, I wish my camera had got a better capture of just how scary it suddenly was, then the helicopter flew right into it, spooky...

60 Second constant exposures, just in case.

Can't, still only 16. Might to when I get my drivers licence though but for now it's stay in the village.

Suspicious scud lowering going on (3rd one, though it's dark) and some mean looking clouds.

Might have seen some lightning a few seconds ago.

Think that's a distant CB

About 7 months

We're definetely a few hours behind schedule with the main channel mass. The models have it a lot further along the line right now. There is some hope definitely.

UKV says stuff still in channel ignites later but we'll see.

First round going west of me, not sure I trust that we could get another round.

Second round but I think the first lots high saturation is a worry.

Thanks, I've got to keep hope ha ha. The moderate risk is looking a bit risky, Handry went for a high .

I feel a disappointment coming on right now but keeping up hope.

Convective Outlook️ A warm front along the same line as a cold front to the south and north will advect a Theta-E plume behind the initial front. The strong moisture will build up post frontal showers in an area of 800+ J/KG of MLCAPE. Some fairly frequent lightning is possible given the amount of energy yielded behind the front along with the stream of showers likely along a PV lobe through the channel and lifting with the front. This occurs along a jet exit meaning that forcing won't be an issue. 35+ knots of DLS and some backed and hooked hodograph may allow for a Supercell to form. The straightness of the hodo after the initial hook suggests Supercell potential in some areas. The tornadic potential is also one to keep an eye on. In areas, the LLS could reach 40 knots. That coincides with hooked hodograph behind the front with. Along with the stretched vorticity, which is strongly streamwise compared to previous high LLS events and that can significantly increase tornadic potential. Any tornado's would be brief and weak with little energy and that's where the main issue comes in. DCAPE out strengths the 3CAPE and I suspect the vorticity will be stretched more crosswise than models suggest based off that and the energy in the 3CAPE is rather low (whilst still in severe status) for anything tornadic beyond brief and weak. A bust scenario is where the energy is stretched crosswise due to DCAPE not contributing to inflow. However, I suspect a brief tornado has a fairly decent chance of occurring in 3CAPE maximas. The 0 degree line being so low may allow for some weak hail to form. Maybe energy won't be enough, I some areas it could be though for 1cm hail or larger. Though storm relative inflow is rather weak. Timing should be, moving NE from the south in the early to mid afternoon into the Midlands (probably more Eastern) along with the central south, southeast and East Anglia in the evening and overnight. Maybe a bit more north than that on some models.

Lovely anvil

Will actually do a full discussion for tomorrow's event along with the map tonight, if I remember to write the discussion.

Not anything I'd stay up for, at best a couple lightning strikes you wouldn't get on video.

Convective Outlook️ Throughout Thursday afternoon into the early hours of Friday, we will see multiple waves of thunderstorms affecting SW/S England & parts of Wales. Most thunderstorms will stay offshore during the evening/overnight however some may clip coastal areas.

Dying down later this evening yeah, late afternoon best time, till early evening really.

Convective Outlook ️ An unstable setup is likely to develop across England throughout today with intense showers developing. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across Southern England bringing some lightning, hail, gusty winds & intense rainfall rates.