Eagle Eye

Good storm today

Distant thunder which is very headache enducing every few minutes. No real bolts though.

They're literally the same storm.

Decent storm to be honest. Especially for daytime.

The great Ivybridge storm of 2023.

Yes. I was away for that one in France but got the best pic out of you lot (just kidding, joke was funnier in my head) of the storms south of the sysyem. It missed where I live because it split there. So I'm glad I was in France anyway. There were a few tornados with that system. Ignore the bad quality. Had to screenshot it rather than download it as I quickly took it from my Facebook.

Let's just hope it's a cycle and soon we re enter the storms realising the UK exists time frame. So that we aren't always stuck with crud of storms we didn't even get.

Let's have a look at what we could have won...

It really is isn't it. Really annoying to happen because the trend was supposed to be going north on most models till it changed the last minute.

Hopefully a taste of what could happen with the Brest webcam

Looking very good. So, our area of instability is the one near Brest. It should slide ENE then NE before properly moulding together in the channel.

ESTOFEX level 1

Convective Outlook 1000+ J/KG of MLCAPE advecting with a trough mid morning looks to spark a few thunderstorms, potentially severe. The advection of the PV lobe could create a trail of thunderstorms into the afternoon but generally most instability will be used up by a singular storm. So the frontal storms if a trail does form will tend to be the strongest. High DLS combined with moderate CAPE allows for some potential Supeecellular formation, mainly angled in the channel and Northern France but there is a chance of a Supercells on the coast, mainly behind the main system in the late afternoon with afternoon heating built instability before a cold front moves through and could spark a Supercellular thunderstorm or two. Generally, MLCIN is quite high however. There's a very stable surface layer combined with boundary latching energy. However, with the rainforest esque moisture available, saturation may become an issue. Saturation tends to become an issue with less moisture in Springtime with lightning. However, the ridiculous amount of moisture, similar to last week's event, it doesn't seem to matter as much. Saturation isn't as high as last time so genuinely, lightning could be quite frequent, mainly in the channel though and along the coasts. Could well be frequent inland, you never really know how far inland everything will get with these setups. Deep rooted Theta-W layer around thr Sussex coast could allow for some hefty CAPE values there. As well as that, general cloud height could be 12+ km, that area could be enough for 14+ km. Large sub zero CAPE with DLS and a weak but good enough inflow layer. There is potential for hail up to 1-1.5 inches. The actual inflow layer is rather large and so there is some severe hail potential. Along with surface flooding possibly given all the moisture. Some daytime storms are generally possible anywhere in the east depending on where the cold and daytime heating mix. However, that varies a lot from model to model and in strength. This is different from the trail along the south coast.

Most accurate recent UKV for now was the 09Z. Here's a reminder:

Positivity on this forum really growing now for me to get a distant thunderstorm which I would absolutely take I see. Would make it what, 4 Kent clippers since I joined in 2020?

Still in with the chance of severe hail, just not 2 inch hail.

Me and Jay's forecast coming soon. It's looking better than expected to be honest. I'm staying up all night. Almost definitely pre-stormy night elevated instability. First signs of it. Doesn't guarantee it but good signs.

I have one word for it. Typical.

That was just my phone camera and editing. You can tell becuase the actual quality isn't great.

Lovely evening.

I had one with the storm earlier this week for a minute or two from a close positive CG. 0.5 seconds after I saw the strike, I heard the loud crack rather than rumble sound that went on for a few seconds and knocked out power. However, had a louder one that didn't turn out the power last year. Shook the house and forced me to cover my ears which I don't normally do anymore.

Tried using tweezers and that's what pushed it further in. I really shouldnt have tried to upload my videos and photos when I was really tired.

I've got my camera's memory card accidentally trapped in the back of the CD area on the IMAC because at 2am today I thought that was card reader area and its not allowing me to eject it. So nothing off my camera to come from last night.

Yeah. Sheesh.

Ooo ooo guys in the south. I've got another storm opportunity to chase, only this one has a big chance of totally busting for everyone. You in?