Eagle Eye

Rained a bit in London.

Immideate area to watch for potential spin ups. The join between the advanced linear segment and slower segment may have enough inflow to force some surface rotation with stretched vorticity along the joint (stretched streamwise) but I don't really think it's enough.

Yes. First developments of stretched cells. Should continue to upscale along the PV lobe.

Today has the hallmarks of squally development along the airmass boundary. With fairly good non-trapped surface energy (only really near the surface), which should be released easily. Also with it mostly being surface energy, it latches onto the surface vorticity favourable for convergent development of multiple storms quickly into multi-cellular development. Shearing is good enough for this to make sense, though being stronger to the north, this occurs parallel to the cold airmass so the shearing is still relatively strong. May be a chance for some weak spin-up tornados in there as well. DCAPE isn't really enough for wind gusts to be too strong.

It would still be quite hard to see them as well. For maybe a couple sprites, it wouldn't be worth it. Parts of the USA are obviously the best for it, flat land for 100's of miles and no trees in the way. Another place would be, would be to go in the countryside in either the Peak District or Yorkshire, there's a decent amount of storms that happen south of there that you could get a good view of.

The UK is such a hard place to get sprites. You have no idea how big they are in reality. The reason they look small in camera is that generally people have to take them 100s of miles away from the store. It's actually quite hard to find a place to do that because it's so crowded.

Yep, nothing in the far SE to trigger anything it seems.

AROME for this evening showing just how much energy is possible for me in the SE. Just no real trigger on any of the models.

Possibly, might also be an increase in forcing due to this. Does mean a chance that the energy forecasted to be in the channel overnight might be a bit further north into the south for further development, main issue was lack of any real forcing though. The storms further north may just send the pressure slightly off down here, especially given the depressing cold front. Gravity waves might just influence something thundery somewhere in the south, just a few musings.

Might charge my camera up just in case. Still not sure there's a trigger here but it's the perfect day to get a clear picture of lightning in the distance.

Convective Outlook️ Some Theta-E advection will allow for a few pre-frontal storms to form along the south and move NE throughout the afternoon. This occurring in an area of only really up to 500 J/KG of CAPE, so lightning is likely to be very sparodic. Fairly clustered cells should start forming, sort of along the SE edge of the front, during the early to mid afternoon in southern areas (maybe not quite along the coast though) and move NE or NNE depending on exact steering towards East Anglia into the evening hours before weakening. No real threats expected with these semi-isolated cells which may be more pulse-type and recycling than the same specific cells move towards that area. No real threats associated with these. There may be an uptick in CAPE into the S/SE in the evening for some more organised lightning to potentially occur. However, there looks to be no real trigger so that CAPE may not be used up at all. As a side note, there may be isolated showers throughout the day in parts of western Scotland, Northern Ireland and western Ireland. May pose a risk for an isolated lightning strike.

Timelapse of about 200 stacked images. Iso down quite low, around 200 but exposure normal to be able to capture the wispy clouds in front of the camera. Using my camera, just put it on automatic and as it wasn't really that windy, it was able to stay in frame on my camera (I have a tripod) . Then set it to 4K and 30fps, could've done high definition and 60 fps, I prefer quality over speed.

A few bits and pieces from today ye.mp4 P1280024.mp4

Downwards CAPE and CAPE up to 3KM.

Given the streamwise vorticity already in place, any storm that can latch onto the surface flow behind the frontal system will likely be able to increase the momentum into the storm at a steady rate. The extreme LLS with backing winds is quite rare for the British Isles and if enough DCAPE can force enough energy downwards to rapidly increase 3CAPE, specifically in the lowest sector of cloud development then there may be potential for a strong tornado. Given all that directing of shear, a Supercell is definitely possible. This is especially likely in the middle and southern sectors of the possible line, where there appears to be better stretching and veering of the low-level winds and directing of mid-upper level winds are better, aiding possible Supercellular development. SBCAPE is quite low for Supercellular development, however this appears to be acting on the models as a possible low CAPE/high shearing scenario, with just about weak enough forcing for it not to upscale too much compared to previous events in the past. The updraft could well be centred away from the draft given the winds available so some good pictures of the storms are also possible. So if you're in the path, possibly might need your camera for this afternoon and into evening.

Been a deceptively thundery year

Here's this evening's photos.

Convective Outlook A warm front initially moves through Ireland and perhaps dipping down into SW England and lifts up through the UK, perhaps strongest in parts of Scotland. This occurs during the morning for western parts and eventually leaves Eastern parts late afternoon. Some rain may linger behind it, this is Storm Agnes, coming from a rapid cyclogensis with a low pressure system so severe wind gusts of 100+ km/h on Irish coasts and western UK coasts are possible. Along with widespread 50+ km/h inland with the back edge of the warm front. Behind the warm front, showers could well form in parts of Ireland moving onto some portions of the western UK. This mainly occurring in the afternoon and evening, these may have the risk of sparodic lightning more than the warm front along with flooding similar to the front. They may come with their own storm related wind gusts of 80+ km/h, mainly on the coasts. DLS may be enough for some stretching of surface vorticity to result in an isolated brief tornado or two. Given that strong DLS, a Supercell cannot be ruled. They may form more organised in Northern Ireland and move into SW Scotland for momentum exchanges to result in small hail and again that slightly heightened risk of an isolated tornado.

Convective Outlook (meant to say brief, isolated tornadoes on map) Along a cold front, a squall line looks fairly likely to set up Approaching Ireland and Scotland by around mid morning with widespread 90 KM/H+ winds along the cold front bringing squally winds and rain. Strong winds and heavy rainfall look to be the main severe threats. As the morning gets on, the lift will increase along the south of England and along the squall line. So showers form and move through the central south and southeast of England in areas with 75+ J/KG of 3CAPE for some sunrise showers to form and move north east into the early afternoon potentially. This occurring along a shortwave trough, may bring the risk of some weak flooding with it. The Irish risk continues on into S/SW Scotland with 150+ J/KG of 3CAPE along the squall line and 35+ knots of LLS. Large amounts of that momentum is shifted downwards and that may transfer into stretching the surface streeamwise vorticity. This may transfer into a local increase of the LLJ in certain areas, for some rotation along spots of increased vorticity. So some brief spin up tornadoes are possible. Most energy looks to be transferred downward so the spin up tornadoes and strong wind gusts are fairly potential risks along the squall line. Mainly in the slight risk areas where squall line intensity and potentially lightning frequency looks to be increased. Eventually, the cold front weakens as it moves through Northern England and Scotland mid afternoon and lifts north, significantly weakening to essentially nothing by the evening.

Little bit or artistic licence taken this evening.

Took some moon photos. a few stills taken from 4k bursts as well, hands were a bit shaky though. They won't look as good on phones unless opened up or something.

Stuff from yesterday evening. Timelapses P1260197.mp4.63d90ffa2b307315a2c5e630fad37002.mp4 P1260841.mp4.f6d8c1b2afdafea6d5b35cf34be863f8.mp4 P1260663.mp4.6067841f6f8be2f851e6a4c3cd28cd2f.mp4 P1260663.mp4.6067841f6f8be2f851e6a4c3cd28cd2f.mp4 Photos

Stuff from today P1260197.mp4 P1260409.mp4 P1260663.mp4 P1260841.mp4

Evening lads.

Can see that from where I am but I'm on the bus so hard to get a good picture.