Eagle Eye

At the local pub, was hard to get a job elsewhere because people generally want to employ 18+ year olds but the local pub landlord was nice so we knew I wouldn't get messed around by them. The chef's are nice and helpful and the food smells nice so you won't get a bad smell from the job, I think I'm lucky to get a job inside a fairly soundproof room with the chef's and me the dishwasher (and sometimes potato peeler) because it means we can put on a Spotify playlist full of rock and not disturb the people eating and drinking. Fingers crossed for your son's trial with Folkestone Harbour.

Convective Outlook 3CAPE in excess of 150 J/KG with locally 200+ J/KG along the inner portion of a jet streak with large and suitable moisture transport for some active storms to form. These will likely form on PV lobes and from orographic forcing. Local QG forcings with pressure deformation will allow for some active storms to potentially form in areas. Despite fairly weak SBCAPE because of local surface buoyancy maximas associated with Quasi-Geostrophic forcing mentioned before, pulse-type storms could become active in areas. Clustering may occur with +VE PV rolls stretched in a line given mostly QG forced storms, however, that tends to weaken storms I find. So the less clustered they get, the better for forecasting verification. Along the jet streak, strong wind gusts could take place and given the moisture advection, surface flooding may also occur. An isolated brief tornado may occur given the extent of LLS in some areas. Very strong LLLR's could give the risk for some non-severe hail size.

Well it did happen this evening. Had a good shower go through but when I was at work. Now I know how the others who have storms at work feel.

First day of work finished .

About the same just a bit cloudier, without the sun loungers and the fancy drinks. Probably not as warm either. Apart from that it's all good .

I love moths. I just see them as rather unfortunate butterflies lol.

Happy birthday!!!

Intensifying jet streak exit region. Really weird setup for summer here, normally I'd be hoping for low-level WAA and we wouldn't notice it much as it's a smaller BOB trough normally so would come with weaker winds and a few storms. The direction of this low is very winter like rather than summer wise.

Can totally understand. All the big words are just for practising for University for me (hopefully). QG (Quasi-Geostrophic) forcing local maximas just mean, the changes in landscape or pressure deformation affecting storm formation. Most models won't pick them out to their true extent. Though the high resolution models will generally get a better idea of positioning of course. The pressure deformation (shortwave trough) is the main reason here. Though it's a bit further south than it was modelled yesterday and weaker.

True true. Its downgraded since last night to be fair. Relies on local maximas which even the most high resolution models won't pick up.

Oddly nothing in parts further north in Ireland given quite a few models still supporting that QG forcing that I talked about along with decent MLCAPE.

Update to the risk map. Did mention the possibility of it.

Convective Outlook A band of heavy showers might turn into elevated thunderstorms in places, but the confidence is very low. This is given very low instability with a band of rain which could have a few rumbles within the band, especially with the back of the cold front. An initial, decaying warm front probably won't hold much instability with the first band. However, there's a cold front close to it which may have some instability associated with the back of it. High shearing parallel to the advancing cold front should allow for organisation of any CAPE. Possibly enough to upgrade to a slight risk tomorrow and expand the low if MLCAPE forecasts trend further north. Instability will build across Ireland later, MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/KG in some areas should spark a few fairly active storms. Some elevated storms to the north of initial surface based storms along a Theta-W plume with some post APBL WAA. A lifting occluded front rises with the Theta-W along a QG plane, forcing stronger convective forcing in a line along the PV lobe with widespread 700+ J/KG of MLCAPE and locally sourced 1000+ J/KG of MLCAPE could provide for some high LCL embedded storms. Lightning probably won't organise due to the high LCL's and mostly fairly low EL's despite the fairly high shearing. This is because that weakens the ECAPE the storms can take up, fairly weak. South of the lifting QG plane, surface heating should provide for fairly large SBCAPE and a few storms to form despite weak shearing.

Really is a small world. A few people might even have known him. The chairman of 50 odd years still plays for us occasionally so I imagine he knew him right from the start till the end of when he played for us.

People don't seem to like that they might be wrong about something and don't like to learn about it even if evidence is given. Tamara often corrects me but you don't see me calling her names, I made a mistake and I learn from it. If you know you've got something wrong, why do so many people double down on it? There's no need for name calling, if you made a mistake or don't like what someone else is thinking about the model output, just roll with it. We aren't perfect but we can try to be good.

Whilst we're here with very little crumbs. This is the 3rd level 3 risk in a row for mainland Europe. Making it 6 level 3 risks for Europe so far this year.

I actually play cricket in Great Chart. Small world I guess. So sorry to hear about your wife's oldest brother.

Convective Outlook ️ Widespread heavy showers will develop, bringing the risk of an isolated lightning strike where it does develop intensity. Lightning will be limited. However, a few strikes could be seen.

Unfortunate. Though it hasn't really rained much for me at all in the last month or so. Except for 1 storm where it rained a lot.

Lovely day for it.

Convective Outlook Scattered widespread showers will develop with thunderstorms expected across North England/Scotland, parts of Northern Ireland and Eastern England. A few strikes from the heavy showers can be expected outside any SLGHT risk areas.

It was even a severe weather EU, enhanced risk. " ENH risk has been issued for parts of England, Wales into southern Scotland with a threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds and large hail. Supercell storms are likely to form as well. SLGT risk has been issued for areas surrounding the ENH risk including much of Scotland with a threat for isolated severe storms, capable of producing severe winds and marginally large hail. Moderate to strong instability builds up during the peak time heating hours and overlaps with increasing deep-layer shear. A few isolated to scattered storms are likely to initiate in the afternoon. Favorable shear should allow storms to become organized while tracking north-northeast into the evening hours. A few large hail and severe wind events will be possible."

There's a risk today but I'm very tired and Jay made a risk map last night which changed a lot this morning when he can't access to edit it so...

Unofficial convective outlook Sunday 22:00 - Monday 21:00 500+J/KG of SBCAPE with locally around 1000 J/KG of SBCAPE should allow for some widespread showers and storms to form, especially in Ireland and Scotland. Though buoyancy is low, there is good enough modelling support to introduce moderate risks in areas. Though, generally storms won't be highly active, they could still generate some occasionally frequent lightning. 30,000 feet cloud tops are possible,mainly in the Irish storms which may help lead to the most active storms of the day. Though, how much of that potential is realised does vary model to model slightly and also area to area. LLLR's may be supportive of some hail potentially around severe status but because of the low buoyancy, that potential is lowered. So the hail risk is a bit shaky. There is a lot of moisture in the air and so the potential for surface flooding is also evident. Especially given the fairly good amount of 3CAPE (200+ J/KG) that may be available. A few clusters may form along forced bands before they weaken into the evening. A few storms may still linger into the night transitioning to elevated with a small Theta-W plume late evening and early night hours.