Eagle Eye

The slight risk from earlier today still stands till 6am then the latest one uploaded kicks in. Here's the old slight risk

Convective Outlook SBCAPE in excess of 500 J/KG with the 50+ J/KG 3CAPE threshold being reached along the back edge of a left tilted Theta-E tongue. Fairly strong hydrolyse rates again suggest some more well formed storms, mainly concentrated in the slight risk. This is supported by good DLS and so a Supercell cannot be ruled out. If a Supercell does form then it'll make the most of the MLCAPE available and substantially increase near severe hail chances. May also mean a funnel or tornado is possible given that its riding close to the front with the increased gravity wave and momentum forcing. Cells look close together enough for some potential exchange of momentum. When they form in a line along a strong PV lobe, the funnel cloud and tornado potential is slightly heightened. Though still too low for a severe to be introduced. The timing of cell formation is probably early afternoon moving NE mainly across the slight into the evening. Before moving off into the North Sea.

I don't have the money to do so, me and Jay have a Twitter for the forecasts. I also work with Handry for his forecasts as well.

ECM continues to be stormy.

? P.S Sorry about that discussion, my phone broke so that's just what Jay could do and not me. 1) For everyone High CAPE does not equal strong hail. It can help but depends where its stored to be honest. Nor does it mean Supercells either.

Convective Outlook ️ Showers and thunderstorms will develop across Scotland/ Ireland during the day, Wales/SW England in the evening. In the evening most t-storm activity will staff offshore in the SW although some could affect Cornwall/Coastal areas.

Convective Outlook ️ Widespread cells will develop across England, Scotland & Ireland where a few rumbles/strikes could be seen. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across N Ireland up to the Glasgow area & N Scotland.

Convective Outlook ️ Ahead of an occluded front tracking into W parts of Ireland, showers and t-storms will develop. These showers will affect Scotland, Ireland & N England.

Oh my, imagine if this came off or even just similar. We can dream right?

Convective Outlook Showers and storms should form along a PV lobe along or slightly behind a cold front. There's a weak occluded front behind the cold front which might have some more showers associated with it. A trough pre front may also form across northern England and Scotland with scattered showers and isolated lightning possible in the showers with 50+ J/KG 3CAPE. The main shower and storms line forms over Ireland, moving towards far western England and lifting northwest towards far northwestern England and into Scotland. Large post PBL lift so despite weak elevated CAPE, lightning could occur along the strongly forced line. With fairly good hydrolapse rates aiding the storms. The trough and occluded front occur along two separate Theta-W tongues. Meaning that elevated storms can pop up randomly overnight stronger than forecasted on both sides. With a moisture tongue for both of these areas, showers and storms, especially with the stronger forced occluded front could provide some torrential rainfall. Might be some hail with supportive hodographs and strong buoyancy but generally weak CAPE should hold back the total hail strength. Generally small hail maxing out sub severe strength.

Convective Outlook ️ An occluded front will run through Scotland allowing showers to develop around it throughout Monday. Showers may become intense/potent at times which. is where we could see the odd lightning strike or couple.

A few cool looking showers yesterday. And a couple days ago.

Convective Outlook ️ Heavy showers will develop across England, Ireland & Scotland. Lightning will be limited however the odd/couple of strikes can't be ruled out.

P.S. Won't be able to do many discussions on Friday nights as I've got a job (have had for the past few weeks but not much storm activity on those days). I could do the discussion based off the 12Z's but Jay often waits for the 18Z's.

Convective Outlook Storm Antoni will head into the UK bringing heavy showers & t-storms for some. Severe has been issued for 50+mph gusts, especially along Wales, S/SW England and parts of Ireland. Lightning may become frequent at times although a lot of uncertainty.

Convective Outlook Convergence should force showers along a PV lobe in the Eastern half of the country with a slight north-western tilt with the showers in terms of inland depth. This comes from a typical back edge of a trough setup with the natural hydrolysed tilting of the showers coming from the difference in pressure advection at different levels. Drier air nearer the surface followed by slightly moister air around PBL increasing the hydrolyse rates especially post PBL with quickly weakening moisture rates. With a NW tilted 850's Theta-E tongue. This all combines with 100 J/KG of 3CAPE to provide heavy showers and a few thunderstorms. They may initially struggle to produce lightning and with the pulse nature due to the fairly weak DLS, lightning may be limited towards the longer lived storms. Small hail may be possible as well but weak energy and I suspect a weak to non existent inflow layer, its unlikely to become above 1cm. Though sometimes surprises can occur with these types of setups as these tend to have large LLLR's and more energy than forecasted. Given the moisture, there is a risk for some surface flooding with showers training over the same place. Also convergence increases the chances of a funnel cloud and potentially a tornado or two cannot be rules out.

Convective Outlook ️ Widespread heavy showers will develop across nearly anywhere with some becoming quite intense although no storms are expected. The odd shower can be seen elsewhere however lightning will be limited due to the small pockets of CAPE therefore no SLGHT risk.

This one has spirit!

Convective Outlook A low pressure moves through the south bringing strong wind gusts and behind it a few thunderstorms are likely to form in areas of 1,000+ J/KG of SBCAPE. 3CAPE in excess of 100 J/KG suggests some fairly strong storms are possible. Fairly strong SB buoyancy along slightly increased areas of weak DLS. This suggesting pulse storms but quite tall and therefore some fairly frequent lightning for a time. Near 30,000 feet cloud height is quite good compared to recent weeks but in general terms it's not particularly special. Inside a deep rooted moisture tongue from previous moisture advection, there lies tall moisture convergence especially in a line along the slight risk. With the strongest PV maxima in that area as well(when thinking height wise rather than just at the PBL depth). Fairly strong LLLR's mixing with alright buoyancy suggest some small hail possible. This is confirmed with the <0°C CAPE. So small hail, some surface flooding given moisture and strong wind gusts are possible. Saturation is strong which weakens lightning risk. So we have kept it to a slight risk.

Convective Outlook A triple frontal setup from a low pressure provides a few different modes of potential convection setups and lots of rain for some areas. The initial warm front has little energy associated with it as it passes from the SW through to the SE but behind it is a potentially active cold front spanning from the SW to the NW across to the SE overnight. In Ireland an occluded front may provide some action including as it swings into the NW of England in the early morning hours. MUCAPE potentially in excess of 500 J/KG with the most active MUCAPE being 800 J/KG. 22-24°C potential 850's Theta-W advection along the cold front suggests that along the cold front, elevated thunderstorms could pop up and be quite active despite the moderate CAPE plume. Significant southern Europe'esque moisture with 60+ °C 850's Theta-E shows how strong the moisture plume of air is. Surprising then that the CAPE is that low given this would normally be a big event. A long PV maxima from northern France up to Ireland could provide as the forcing mechanism for long lived semi-active thunderstorms and heavy rainfall along the cold front. Though, the weak CAPE weakens that activeness along the front. With strong DLS, an isolated funnel cloud may form and thunderstorms that do form could be long lived with their sparodic lightning. This is very similar to initial Bay Of Biscay troughs even though it isn't. The amount of moisture is a lot so flooding may become an issue. Strong lift and some good MLLR's may allow for some hail.

Me and Jay to issue our forecast later today . Does look to be a potentially fairly active setup coming up. Not as strong as earlier setups but still could have some good storms come out of the next few days.

Good old sunset with something showery looking.

Was just bigger than expected rather than coming through earlier.

Convective Outlook ️ An occluded front will run through Ireland, allowing showers to develop, bringing the risk of sporadic lightning. Elevated showers will develop during the overnight period for Wales/parts of England. Sporadic lightning could be embedded with these showers.

Convective Outlook ️ A low pressure will run through Scot overnight bringing elev showers & t-storm. Further showers/storms can be expected throughout the day across E Scot A warm front will head into E parts of Ire bringing the risk of the odd couple of lightning strikes.