Eagle Eye

Can just about see the top of the MCS type thing from here above the mid level clouds which are slowly clearing. Look towards the top right.

Really humid rn. Think the models showing afternoon developments here in the SE could potentially be right.

BBQ's always seem to summon storms from nowhere so good move if you're desperate for a storm .

It's 11am. Almost all models have some stuff in the area but only starts forming late evening ish.

There's some more stuff developing in Northern France in the general direction I need to look at for it to move my way.

Cool skies for a weak shower.

If the south of that channel stuff can continue to develop I might end up with a near miss.

It continues to develop.

Cool looking development.

Some signs of instability here with a bit of stuff rapidly developing along the coast but mainly later today if I'm lucky.

Yeah, the channel.

Not entirely sure what my best chance of a storm is to be honest.

Lightning other side of Ashford out of nowhere. Edit Rumble of thunder

AROME sounding for me tomorrow doesn't look too bad.

Can see it too. Looking good for soon but also later

Willing for the destabilisation to move slightly further east, appears to be getting closer.

Developed so fast that the IR satellite doesn't even show them on the radar yet.

The 18Z AROME

Looking good pre-expected formation in the afternoon as well.

AROME 18Z starting off on the right foot. @CreweCold will be really annoyed if this is a last minute change east from the AROME. Still think it's setting up the same as last time but it's noticed the stronger energy. Interested to see what it shows in a few frames time.

Unofficial convective outlook Saturday 8th July A large Theta-W advection allows for 1,000+ J/KG of MUCAPE to advect ahead of a cold front with post frontal CAPE potentially up to 1,400 J/KG of MUCAPE should allow for some active storms in areas post-front. Large variations in modelling have led me to use a large enhanced risk. Potentially high risk level frequency of lightning may occur in some areas. 20-30 knots of DLS with strong forcing should allow for upscaling into either a broken MCS or a fully fledged MCS depending on MUCAPE strength. That should initially form in the channel after some early morning showers and weak thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. The initial formation appears to take place late morning just ahead of the Isle of Wight, quickly upscaling north as it moves NE/ENE with more developments on its south side assuming an open sector allows for further advection south of the MCS. This likely taking place on the edge of the cold front. As it continues moving NE into the afternoon, developments ahead of the cold front may take place along the east coast as well. A severe is in place for hail risk with some 1-1.25 inch hail possible given large available buoyancy and strong LLLR's. Best possible area for the largest hail with the best buoyancy and LLLR's crossover. Generally though, there's a widespread risk of some large hail. This MCS development along a lobe of vorticity transitions it's development centres NNEward's along the strongest of MUCAPE. An MCS should follow the MUCAPE generally with cell transitioning, likely following into East Anglia and Lincolnshire areas and further northwards. Though a few active cells could inflow on the south side of the MCS in Kent given the buoyant air still present there and those could also pose the threat of hail given previous events. A mid-level ridge moves into the south coast mid-day and generally rules out the strong Theta-W from helping to form any random popup channel storms, at least throughout the daytime beyond the MCS. However, there may be something sliding into the south east overnight but that'll be on tomorrow's forecast if it continues to be modelled. A few weak showers may still form but a tall thunderstorm appears unlikely right along the south coast if you aren't hit by the possible MCS. That MCS and cold front will slowly exit NNE wards with developing cells moving more northwards on the south side. Behind it and there could be a few storms form but the main area behind the front is looking at the England-Wales border and into parts of NW England given strong CAPE there and enough forcing for development into clusters and potentially an MCS. This should move more northwards with the flow change and be rather active, forming in an area of large 3CAPE. These could pose the threat for near-severe hail and frequent lightning in places and are currently being better supported by models than the MCS initially expected to form. They form in a fairly good area of buoyancy but not as strong as the main MCS which is why their hail may be limited and their strength doesn't have as much of a high ceiling of the main MCS. However, the main MCS still doesn't seem to be fully supported by the models with a couple such as the AROME and Swiss-MRF perhaps not giving them enough energy to feed off compared to the more western risk.

Really weird. To be honest after a good start it's been poor since about mid June. I think it handles forcing really weirdly and ends up clustering up storms in the wrong areas.

Unfortunately, I don't think any of us are professional enough to accurately forecast the next few hours purely without any models.

Ha ha. I'm not confident of much but I might set my alarm anyway. Mainly hoping for something in the afternoon to be honest.

It's my favourite