Eagle Eye

It's been a very odd year, I think I had a Storm of sorts on the 19th day of May, June, July and August so the number 19 is now my lucky number.

Close enough, just ignore the rest of the predictions

. I mean when was the last time we had snow before December 21st anyway? Oh wait...

I'd also like to mention that away from Meteorological Seasons (even then we're only a couple weeks or so into Winter), Winter doesn't start till the 21st. We've got roughly 6,322,947 seconds left of Winter Meteorologically speaking.

Even better signs of a relatively long lived -VE zonal wind anomalies and possible reversal to easterlies in the Atlantic area as we go into next week. Of course, this is taking place in the area just above the Tropics so it's unlikely to effect us till late December to early January (ish) . Could see the formation of an amplified high which slightly veers back to a Greenland block as they typically would form during reversed localised zonal wind I imagine. If it does form - as you would imagine in this situation - it could possibly be west based but it depends on the initial centre of Oscillating -VE zonal wind. Given the slow movement of the atmosphere relative to usual, you could probably give about a week or even longer (Greenland blocks take a while to actually form) to we see the first effects after initial 'reversal'. So we may see a Greenland blocking form around Christmas time onwards, similar to the upper Troposphere. So in other words, possible long-term Greenland blocking pattern signals are starting to evolve but there's a lot more to it than just this and I'm ill right now so I'm not properly awake so will have to wait till later till my mind will allow me to put 2 and 2 together to make 3 wait no 4 .

We might slowly move towards zonal but notice that slither of quite strong -VE zonal wind in the uoper Troposphere entering the Atlantic 30W-0 area in the Tropics. Suggesting that there may be some blocking around the Greenland area based off previous experience earlier this month. The timing of this will be difficult to tell because it pretty much needs a long-term signal so if it keeps beyond Christmas, late December/early January (ish) we could start to see that sort of pattern evolve. This would only happen if the right evolving pattern comes into place. So, what are the other signals showing? The GWO looks to slowly move back to roughly phase 4/5 (Green line is forecast) as we get towards Christmas time and onwards of that you would expect a gain of AAM back to a fairly substantial +ve AAM state as the GEO loops through phases 5 and 6 and we see the gain of mountain torque and circumglobal troughs. It's a possible sign of a repeating pattern as we saw in the longevity of the +VE AAM state for almost two months up until the slight dip over the last few days (not sure whether it's dipped back into -VE AAM yet though) and maybe the zonal pattern excpected is just a short reaction to the -VE AAM dip and the EAJE in reaction to the EAJR. Thus suggests the possibility of a blocked-cold pattern in the long-term but timing is important as there may be some energy scattering events still that could have reactions where we just end up with an intensified westerly zonal jet. The importance of how amplification is scattered and the downstream effects of the fairly quick switches between zonal patterns cannot be understated as they could have fairly big effects on our pattern. Just look at the change between zonal wind anomalies above over a relatively small area and time. MJO may help us but it seems slightly too slow in reaching phase 5 as it doesn't even get to it on this forecast by late December. Preferably, we'd want to see a quicker MJO evolution to at least phase 5 otherwise the timing may be slightly off and the pattern just doesn't quite line-up. As long as we keep the -VE Atlantic zonal setup till the 2nd week of January (we'd have to be very lucky) then we may see the best evolution of any WAA into Greenland. Though phase 4 seems to be like phase 5 in that even when it's amplified it often just strengthens whatever zonal pattern we get into at that time. That can be seen in the PNA pattern recovery going largely +VE. I've mostly seen that the PNA is a good indicator in some scenarios but is often a background lurking signal. Amplification of the PNA either way can have different consequences either way with the +VE and -VE sates potentially bringing cold through WAA. It can also bring a normal zonal pattern in +VE and -VE states so it's more reliant on how the zonal wind is setup across the Atlantic. Considering the forecasted -VE zonal Atlantic phasing that supports amplified WAA into the Greenland area but how close we are to seeing it quickly diminished as well if the GWO shunts back towards -VE AAM phasing, we could see it amplifying zonal phasing. So in other words, at the moment it's very difficult to have an idea, I wouldn't be willing to call it simply because of the timing aspect being crucial here. Going into late December and early January onwards though and there is the cold potential still there. Also the possibility of more zonal weather as well though.

I understand how confusing it can be with all the different words and phrases. The most likely solution is for a relatively normal evolution of mild air as we go into next week but beyond that your guess is as good as anybodies. There's a lot of conflicting signals and in a sense there's very little tip one way or the other. This is one of those situations that everyone's opinion can be valid. I'd advise looking at mainly the professionals because they are professionals for a reason.

Just a short one for now, will do it properly later. The recovery of the Eurasian feedback between 0 and 60E should start showing soon. However, the Atlantic area (near Greenland) is now reacting to the East Asian wave train and we should see an increase in the amplification air packet towards Greenland as we go towards Christmas. Christmas and beyond could see a renewed Greenland blocking due to this although any Scandinavian ridging attempts despite the EAJR's downstream effects because of the increasing zonal wind, the westerly jet is likely to increase in strength around Eurasia. Despite that, renewed cold prospects from the Greenland blocking prospects and better MJO phase 5/6/7 lag correlation going into the last week of December and the new year.

If we look at the zonal wind in the tropics at the upper Troposphere level, there's a clear indication of a -VE anomaly extended over East Asia to the Pacific (120E-180) from the jet retraction that's recovering essentially now. The initial zonal wind packet causing an extension of the energy scattering across the world and that's shown in the closely linked erratic zonal wind anomaly behaviour and the retraction of the 60W-0 (Atlantic) zonal wind behaviour into a forecasted -VE effect. Eventually that should edge out across to the Eurasian area and hence the timing is important. The reason it's important is because with a relatively high gradient and despite the waning Eurasian -VE EAMT feedback, I think it should have enough to force some sort of Scandinavian blocking and so the models showing that at the moment should have the best handle on this. Of course, the amplification is unlikely to be very strong but that doesn't mean that cold can't fall on the other side of it so a short cold snap (especially away from the south) may be the most likely solution here. How strong the amplification gets will be difficult to tell just from this but I think that as long as a high thermal gradient can be maintained then we should see it advect fairly far North so it may end up resulting in more than just a cold snap. This is shown in the quick -VE AO dip timing itself with this that's been talked about but dynamically how it'll evolve is very difficult to tell with the differences between model runs do I'll leave it up to you more knowledgeable about each model than me. This isn't a sure-fire guarantee of cold but it really helps the cold prospects with a stalled westerly jet and despite the westerly QBO phase moving fairly slowly through Mike Ventrice's noted phase 5, the effects seem to be fairly low here when there's erratic behaviour. The erratic behaviour of the zonal wind anomalies because of the sustained +VE AAM and then the EAJR really seems out of place given the La Nina oceanic base state but the fairly sustained Nino-esque pattern is showing good signs that it may be a reccuring theme (as half mentioned earlier) until at least early January. This Winter just seems to be going against the normal for the ENSO state we're in and we've already seen that so early on in Winter. It's very interesting to me how the packets of air are behaving quite unlike you would expect and.it shows how helpful an oceanic-atmospheric 'disconnect' can potentially be given +VE torque anomalies. Don't tell anyone but I've spent the last 40 minutes of my lesson writing this out on my phone whilst not really thinking a lot so this has been quite a fun lesson but I don't know whether what I've written here makes sense because often things make sense only to me because I wrote it. So yeah, don't tell me teachers I'm doing something a lot more interesting than the subject is to me at least. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98087-model-output-discussion-the-cold-has-arrived/?do=findComment&comment=4769207

If we look at the zonal wind in the tropics at the upper Troposphere level, there's a clear indication of a -VE anomaly extended over East Asia to the Pacific (120E-180) from the jet retraction that's recovering essentially now. The initial zonal wind packet causing an extension of the energy scattering across the world and that's shown in the closely linked erratic zonal wind anomaly behaviour and the retraction of the 60W-0 (Atlantic) zonal wind behaviour into a forecasted -VE effect. Eventually that should edge out across to the Eurasian area and hence the timing is important. The reason it's important is because with a relatively high gradient and despite the waning Eurasian -VE EAMT feedback, I think it should have enough to force some sort of Scandinavian blocking and so the models showing that at the moment should have the best handle on this. Of course, the amplification is unlikely to be very strong but that doesn't mean that cold can't fall on the other side of it so a short cold snap (especially away from the south) may be the most likely solution here. How strong the amplification gets will be difficult to tell just from this but I think that as long as a high thermal gradient can be maintained then we should see it advect fairly far North so it may end up resulting in more than just a cold snap. This is shown in the quick -VE AO dip timing itself with this that's been talked about but dynamically how it'll evolve is very difficult to tell with the differences between model runs do I'll leave it up to you more knowledgeable about each model than me. This isn't a sure-fire guarantee of cold but it really helps the cold prospects with a stalled westerly jet and despite the westerly QBO phase moving fairly slowly through Mike Ventrice's noted phase 5, the effects seem to be fairly low here when there's erratic behaviour. The erratic behaviour of the zonal wind anomalies because of the sustained +VE AAM and then the EAJR really seems out of place given the La Nina oceanic base state but the fairly sustained Nino-esque pattern is showing good signs that it may be a reccuring theme (as half mentioned earlier) until at least early January. This Winter just seems to be going against the normal for the ENSO state we're in and we've already seen that so early on in Winter. It's very interesting to me how the packets of air are behaving quite unlike you would expect and.it shows how helpful an oceanic-atmospheric 'disconnect' can potentially be given +VE torque anomalies. Don't tell anyone but I've spent the last 40 minutes of my lesson writing this out on my phone whilst not really thinking a lot so this has been quite a fun lesson but I don't know whether what I've written here makes sense because often things make sense only to me because I wrote it. So yeah, don't tell me teachers I'm doing something a lot more interesting than the subject is to me at least.

Well, our extended period of +VE AAM may be dropping off but I expect the +VE mountain torque to rebound us back to stronger +VE AAM values once again and so further extended blocking should be the more likely solution as long as it's got MJO backing. Beyond the first Euro/Scandi blocking as that's not really AAM backed (although a slight rebound backing lag) but more to do with the downstream effects of the EAJR that I've noted before. Hence why it isn't forecasted to be that amplified on the models compared to previous blocking as it's not a sustained EAJR signal. Fairly substantial torque gain over the next week or so should lead to the rebound of AAM and increasing GWO strength as we move towards the circumglobal trough's with the tall gradient blocking. Possible re-enforcement of Greenland as long as the signal remains fairly sustained and with the Atlantic struggling, I would suggest that there may be another deepening of the -VE AO state as we go into late December/January with the MJO finally back towards helping us with phases 5/6/7 as a rough guide. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98087-model-output-discussion-the-cold-has-arrived/?do=findComment&comment=4769090

Well, our extended period of +VE AAM may be dropping off but I expect the +VE mountain torque to rebound us back to stronger +VE AAM values once again and so further extended blocking should be the more likely solution as long as it's got MJO backing. Beyond the first Euro/Scandi blocking as that's not really AAM backed (although a slight rebound backing lag) but more to do with the downstream effects of the EAJR that I've noted before. Hence why it isn't forecasted to be that amplified on the models compared to previous blocking as it's not a sustained EAJR signal. Fairly substantial torque gain over the next week or so should lead to the rebound of AAM and increasing GWO strength as we move towards the circumglobal trough's with the tall gradient blocking. Possible re-enforcement of Greenland as long as the signal remains fairly sustained and with the Atlantic struggling, I would suggest that there may be another deepening of the -VE AO state as we go into late December/January with the MJO finally back towards helping us with phases 5/6/7 as a rough guide.

Moderate risk. Renegade Supercellular threat for tonight with discrete to semi-discrete cells (eventually clustering), I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a significant tornado, it's uptrended significantly and the moisture returns are looking very conductive.

We've had the coldest maximum since 2010 (unless it wasn't confirmed) so I wouldn't call it the opposite of what the models have been saying. Still very cold in a fair number of places and snow still on the ground in a lot of places, the initial cold may not have/will last as long as expected but there should be more chances down the line with most signals supporting a renewed -VE AO going later on into December.

I think this thread may not be for you On a more serious note, we need to remain cautious whatever the output at this range because things can switch quickly on the models.

Which I now realise is probably the most confusing thing said to man with lots of unrelated stuff which I didn't really link together like I could have

The problem with NWP is that it seems to overplay either the amplification or the zonal influence once you get into FI so I really wouldn't worry about late December/early January. Very little background signals are showing this large zonal influence. A few may suggest that the MJO won't be helpful till earlyJanuarybut looking beyond that because I'm a coldie... The pattern for later this month supports non zonal. The MJO and GWO returning out of COD sometime and the AAM goes back up to strength with a +VE anomaly and we could see renewed blocking. Not only that but recovery of the polar vortex in the Troposphere this 'shot' won't recover that quickly in a nuetral pattern and the Atlantic this 'dead' would take a sustained La Nina connect with the atmosphere for a quick return to zonal weather. The disconnect of the oceanic base state and the Atmosphere is clear to see in the relentless Nino-esque reactions in the Atmosphere associated with the +VE AAM. The +VE AAM predictions from the CFS interest me because they have underplayed the strength of the +VE state for multiple week's now and have tended to try and go -VE for a long time so that would suggest they could still be underplaying the strength of the +VE AAM 'rebound'. Most interesting times ahead since I joined here.

I think you misunderstood, the 850's air gains the most energy and heat just West of North Africa, the source is very elongated but gains the most strength roughly where I mentioned.

On a different stance for about a week away, might be some record breakers in that for overnight high's in Europe (at least for the date), the source of warmth in Africa has bottled up it's heat for a while now and the interaction of the downstream amplification from the EAJR with that temperature (especially the 850's) and so some areas could see a lot of that warmth slowly drift up. A week's time. 2M 850's Africa, roughly the initial source of warmth. 2M 850's For now, it's just very interesting as to how it develops but I don't think the models are still handling it very well and I imagine we'll see a lot of difference in-between different model runs. Note that the source of the 850's isn't actually from North Africa just showing that the interaction of the high drifting from the tropics should interact with bottled up warmth in North Africa on it's southern edge and advect that over time. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98087-model-output-discussion-the-cold-has-arrived/?do=findComment&comment=4767689

On a different stance for about a week away, might be some record breakers in that for overnight high's in Europe (at least for the date), the source of warmth in Africa has bottled up it's heat for a while now and the interaction of the downstream amplification from the EAJR with that temperature (especially the 850's) and so some areas could see a lot of that warmth slowly drift up. A week's time. 2M 850's Africa, roughly the initial source of warmth. 2M 850's For now, it's just very interesting as to how it develops but I don't think the models are still handling it very well and I imagine we'll see a lot of difference in-between different model runs. Note that the source of the 850's isn't actually from North Africa just showing that the interaction of the high drifting from the tropics should interact with bottled up warmth in North Africa on it's southern edge and advect that over time.

CFS now seeing a significant upwards trend in the AAM, suggesting very good signs for a repeating pattern of the +VE AAM with just the slight dip into -VE AAM initially up until early January. The +VE mountain torque rebound event should scatter amplification energy downstream causing a fairly significant increase in AAM. This seems the most likely solution of the recent CFS forecasts with the trend of AAM being above where the CFS forecasts it to be and I think it's underplaying the significance of the +VE mountain torque event causing downstream circumglobal troughing and another decrease in the -VE AO is quite likely. So I think longer term cold prospects are fairly decent and I don't want to say much but I've noted the trend back towards MJO phases 5/6/7 (6 and 7) especially for a few days now and it's showing on the CFS forecast with it's amplification beyond the +VE mountain torque event being more than just a rebound. Looking beyond the increase in AAM isn't going to further much though as the CFS seems to underplay the long term AAM and the strength of the GWO led by the MJO. Initially of course it will be led by the mountain torque anomaly scattering energy downstream = possible Greenland/further Scandinavian blocking but the MJO will have the influence on how strong it gets in my opinion. The models seem biased towards underplaying the MJO and GWO strength and so these patterns are probably quite likely to be stronger than they're forecasted to be (in my opinion). So the secondary dip of the AO could be on the lower end of the ensembles and we see increased (or rather stable) blocking to the North. The unstable inertia of the atmosphere in this scenario should help prop up the -VE AO pattern fairly long term but as we know the CFS isn't the best at verifying. The MJO becomes important very soon as the effects of the EAJR weaken as the jet stream becomes slightly more of an inertially stable jet. However, that means that the MJO effects aren't dampened when the EAJR effects wane and I think we're starting to see that in the Pacific at the moment and with the PNA pattern reverting back to normal, so as it enters phases 5/6/7 with 6 and 7 especially, we will likely see renewed Atlantic downstream amplification and therefore cold prospects keeping up the rise in AAM. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98087-model-output-discussion-the-cold-has-arrived/?do=findComment&comment=4767479

CFS now seeing a significant upwards trend in the AAM, suggesting very good signs for a repeating pattern of the +VE AAM with just the slight dip into -VE AAM initially up until early January. The +VE mountain torque rebound event should scatter amplification energy downstream causing a fairly significant increase in AAM. This seems the most likely solution of the recent CFS forecasts with the trend of AAM being above where the CFS forecasts it to be and I think it's underplaying the significance of the +VE mountain torque event causing downstream circumglobal troughing and another decrease in the -VE AO is quite likely. So I think longer term cold prospects are fairly decent and I don't want to say much but I've noted the trend back towards MJO phases 5/6/7 (6 and 7) especially for a few days now and it's showing on the CFS forecast with it's amplification beyond the +VE mountain torque event being more than just a rebound. Looking beyond the increase in AAM isn't going to further much though as the CFS seems to underplay the long term AAM and the strength of the GWO led by the MJO. Initially of course it will be led by the mountain torque anomaly scattering energy downstream = possible Greenland/further Scandinavian blocking but the MJO will have the influence on how strong it gets in my opinion. The models seem biased towards underplaying the MJO and GWO strength and so these patterns are probably quite likely to be stronger than they're forecasted to be (in my opinion). So the secondary dip of the AO could be on the lower end of the ensembles and we see increased (or rather stable) blocking to the North. The unstable inertia of the atmosphere in this scenario should help prop up the -VE AO pattern fairly long term but as we know the CFS isn't the best at verifying. The MJO becomes important very soon as the effects of the EAJR weaken as the jet stream becomes slightly more of an inertially stable jet. However, that means that the MJO effects aren't dampened when the EAJR effects wane and I think we're starting to see that in the Pacific at the moment and with the PNA pattern reverting back to normal, so as it enters phases 5/6/7 with 6 and 7 especially, we will likely see renewed Atlantic downstream amplification and therefore cold prospects keeping up the rise in AAM.

That looks quite serious. Not sure if this is the same tornado or not.

Too far out for now, the energy transferring through the high from the scattered jet energy (probably not the best term to use here) is being modelled quite poorly for now so I wouldn't call it hopeless. I would imagine that the gradient and dynamical evolution should change as we get closer to time based off the poor modelling of the initial energy alone.