Eagle Eye

I think this shows quite how ridiculous it is. Although the GFS isn't exactly that normal either .

GFS was a trend setter for the summer heat,let's hope its a trend setter here as well

Long time away but I'll let my passion show and bank this run.

Hmm, looks like the jet interaction downstream of the East Asian Jet Retraction's effects are finally showing signs of being handled relatively well by the models with that pumping of energy scattered to the south looking fairly realistic but there's still a lot of interest to be had at the dynamical reactions. The handling of the North American jet and the gradient of the European jet are very important for down the line. The US maybe less so than how the Alaskan area is handled though. The European area mainly matters for the eventual direction of the blocking as we either want a Scandi high or the cold to hold off the flow from the south after a brief mild blip. Not much to add on what others are saying though, struggling to add to what I've previously said for now and what others have been saying, keep these posts coming .

Me thinks the interactions of the East Asian Jet Retraction (EAJR) with the high haven't been fully resolved yet by any means and won't be ressolved till closer to time. The energy scattering would be hard to model as would be the thermal transfer of atmoshperic waves and of course the downstream MJO influence lag as to how amplified the high gets. Interestingly, the AAM has remained +VE according to the tools I use, slightly longer than the lastest CFS forecast so that suggests a longer term unstable inertia pattern holding the -VE AO with renewed -VE AO dips due to dynamical interactions of short term localised torque inceasing and of course the downstrream EAJR and dynamical EAJE (meaning extension, possible repeatinf pattern back to EAJR) before another energy inducing mountain torque anomaly could help amplify the Atlantic jet downstream depending on where the mountain torque takes place (yesterday's news though, not sure what it's like now). If that +VE mountain torque happens in the future it should lead to positive frictional torque anomalies and we see an increasing AAM. As well as that, the slow shift towards phases 6 and 7 on the MJO and we could get an interesting pattern into mid January (depending on the GWO) but it's still in FI for now. Back to the upcoming pattern and beyond the EAJR affecting the North African high and ampligying it up and I think that the MJO effects wil be dampened by this until it goes into phase 4/5 and we start to see it's effects but phase 5 especially can go two ways. It's possible that it helps to initially amplify the -VE AO if we see the development of a relatively significant Euro/Scandi high so the second bout of cold that models are favouring slightly more now could last longer than this one (unless we see an Azores Hurricane form) but it depends on the Atlantic response to this MJO pattern and whether an EAJE happens or the energy scattering from a +VE EAMT (apparently) would help retract the jet or not as it seems that any anomalous AAM can help to retract the East Asian jet but it depends on the initial atmospheric base state. We entered the -VE EAMT in a +VE AAM and hence we didn't see an extension of the Atlantic jet back into zonal flow but instead renewed downstream jet oscillations and weakening zonal wind which will help us see a renewed -VE AO pattern with nothern blocking potential. Cold falling towards us as the atmosphere tries to return to local thermodynamic equilibrium which in this renewed -VE AO state would be a com,plete pattern flip from normal. On the other hand phase 5 MJO influence with the decreasing AAM may just extend the Atlantic jet and weaken AAM as phase 5 seems to almost always be relative to the pattern that it's in. So we may see a return to zonal flow for early January but as my last paragraph shows, it's not neccesarily true. Phase 6 and 7 are shown to have increasing -VE NAO potential but that doesn't mean they would nail them on but I think in this pattern it would rely on increasing torque and less so on the East Asian Jet (EAJ). Eventually, the EAJ should become less so much of a helpful signal and more of a slight background influence for American weather as we see it return back to normal (or we could see a renewed EAJR but I don't think we'd see that till at least late December/early January as the atmosphere tries to naturally recover before another EAMT anomaly could pop up) and that's clear on the more neutral PNA pattern vs renewed -VE AO going into January However, there is so much this pattern coincidence relies on that timing is very important and we wpon't see this pattern resolved fully till after it happens making it very interesting model watching and a discussion on both sides of the zonal VS -VE AO battle. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98087-model-output-discussion-the-cold-has-arrived/?do=findComment&comment=4765953

Me thinks the interactions of the East Asian Jet Retraction (EAJR) with the high haven't been fully resolved yet by any means and won't be ressolved till closer to time. The energy scattering would be hard to model as would be the thermal transfer of atmoshperic waves and of course the downstream MJO influence lag as to how amplified the high gets. Interestingly, the AAM has remained +VE according to the tools I use, slightly longer than the lastest CFS forecast so that suggests a longer term unstable inertia pattern holding the -VE AO with renewed -VE AO dips due to dynamical interactions of short term localised torque inceasing and of course the downstrream EAJR and dynamical EAJE (meaning extension, possible repeatinf pattern back to EAJR) before another energy inducing mountain torque anomaly could help amplify the Atlantic jet downstream depending on where the mountain torque takes place (yesterday's news though, not sure what it's like now). If that +VE mountain torque happens in the future it should lead to positive frictional torque anomalies and we see an increasing AAM. As well as that, the slow shift towards phases 6 and 7 on the MJO and we could get an interesting pattern into mid January (depending on the GWO) but it's still in FI for now. Back to the upcoming pattern and beyond the EAJR affecting the North African high and ampligying it up and I think that the MJO effects wil be dampened by this until it goes into phase 4/5 and we start to see it's effects but phase 5 especially can go two ways. It's possible that it helps to initially amplify the -VE AO if we see the development of a relatively significant Euro/Scandi high so the second bout of cold that models are favouring slightly more now could last longer than this one (unless we see an Azores Hurricane form) but it depends on the Atlantic response to this MJO pattern and whether an EAJE happens or the energy scattering from a +VE EAMT (apparently) would help retract the jet or not as it seems that any anomalous AAM can help to retract the East Asian jet but it depends on the initial atmospheric base state. We entered the -VE EAMT in a +VE AAM and hence we didn't see an extension of the Atlantic jet back into zonal flow but instead renewed downstream jet oscillations and weakening zonal wind which will help us see a renewed -VE AO pattern with nothern blocking potential. Cold falling towards us as the atmosphere tries to return to local thermodynamic equilibrium which in this renewed -VE AO state would be a com,plete pattern flip from normal. On the other hand phase 5 MJO influence with the decreasing AAM may just extend the Atlantic jet and weaken AAM as phase 5 seems to almost always be relative to the pattern that it's in. So we may see a return to zonal flow for early January but as my last paragraph shows, it's not neccesarily true. Phase 6 and 7 are shown to have increasing -VE NAO potential but that doesn't mean they would nail them on but I think in this pattern it would rely on increasing torque and less so on the East Asian Jet (EAJ). Eventually, the EAJ should become less so much of a helpful signal and more of a slight background influence for American weather as we see it return back to normal (or we could see a renewed EAJR but I don't think we'd see that till at least late December/early January as the atmosphere tries to naturally recover before another EAMT anomaly could pop up) and that's clear on the more neutral PNA pattern vs renewed -VE AO going into January However, there is so much this pattern coincidence relies on that timing is very important and we wpon't see this pattern resolved fully till after it happens making it very interesting model watching and a discussion on both sides of the zonal VS -VE AO battle.

Tomorrow's the day, quite large scale dew point advection and quite high PWAT (but I don't think over saturated) profiles expected, leading to cluster convection and a potential wind and tornado threat. The main tornado threat may initially exist in the pre cluster convection with increased cell isolation. Hence probably a more updraft based system that might not get 'overdriven' by outflow dominance though it's hard to tell how isolated they will be at this stage nor how elevated either. Then it shifts to the more linear cluster (potentially QLCS) for 'brief spin ups' but in such an environment, they might pack quite the punch but it depends on how linearly the mode gets and how stretched out we see the hodographs. SRH looks slightly undershot for the southern portions of the risk but the further into Louisiana you go and the better the SRH looks.

Was going to write my views on what could happen mid to long term but for now I don't have much to add, great posts gang, keep them coming!

It'd a 2 and a half hour walk, longer in icy conditions. My mum can't drive as her legs are really struggling at the moment and my dad works at a more local school.

You misread, my school is open but there's no way I can get to school today.

Best snow here in a long time.

School hasn't been called off today but my bus is so late and there's no way of me getting a lift in so I got to take some more photos.

Morning everyone from the snow coated SE... Just goes to show these so called 'dry' cold spells, can pack a surprise with them. Cold looks to be staying for quite the while still, the mild still being around a week away, possibly longer. I think the cold could still spring a few surprises.

Good morning everyone, got a load of snow across the village .

Very Atmospheric photo well done nothing like the grey roll I got here in Woodchurch .

Good evening from a snowy slushy SE. Just a short post for now, look at the mid term WAA from the interacting downstream energy with the North African high (or rather high just off the North African coast), will be impressive to see how this eventually evolves but for now wouldn't fret about anything beyond it.

Fantastic photos

Can't complain with starting Winter with a couple cm's of snow.

Hopefully most of this stays till sunrise...

My friend's on the motorway on the way back and captured this. She's coming back from a funeral of her family member and she loves snow so hopefully this can at least cheer her up a little bit. VID-20221211-WA0008.mp4

I think we call that laying 20221211_173452353.mp4

Proper wet snow,laying quite well already (Ironically away from the grass) VID-20221211-WA0005.mp4

Wet snow is falling here finally after seeing it crawl up the radar for hours.

Snow seems to have been honing in on me for an entire year at the moment but should mean a long time for snow when/if it arrives.