Turquoise
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Posts posted by Turquoise
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a line of cells now going north east across the Midlands, of course we are too far north this time and will miss out again but good luck to the rest of the UK
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1 hour ago, Rufus Butterfield said:
There were a few storms about but I think that the 60% storm chance from Netweather was over doing it a bit. Too much cloud cover probably inhibited most of development that could have occurred earlier.
I dont really take much motice of the 60% warnings tbh.
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Ireland is getting pretty much widespread daily storms at the moment. Impressive.
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moderate rainfall here all morning, no thunder...but a lovely fresh feel out there now. 16C and less humid and grass has a good soaking. Happy enough. Not expecting storms today, we dont get them even with 60%+ warnings so I'm looking forward to a nice sunny afternoon now as long as it doesnt get too hot and muggy again.
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Just now, Wimbledon88 said:
We live in a world now that even professional meteorologists talk about '' the risk of showers '' In places that haven't seen a drop in over a month.
I think last summer on one of the days they did a 10% storm warning for the whole country. That way if they get it right its brilliant forecasting. if they didn't then it was just a 10% warning anyway. Either way it looks good.
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So for the second day running despite warnings of a storm its been a lovely sunny day. Good job I actually ignored the storm warning this time and actually done the BBQ I should of yesterday
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Ireland, Wales, Western Scotland and Lancashire have had a lot of storms already this summer....a repeat again today. Good for them.
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despite only being in a 20% warning for storms today it feels like we have a better chance today than yesterday when we had a 60%. Feels a lot more humid, towers going up in all directions, breaks of blue sky too and just has that 'feel' to it. Nothing will probably happen but it's worth a mention.
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1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:
Convective Outlook
Sunday 23:00 - Monday 21:00
Overnight a few elevated showers with occasional lightning may occur behind the departing MCS, with the continued strong Theta-W. Energy is weak but there may be enough to spark a weak thunderstorm somewhere in the channel. Those should weaken by early morning hours. There may also be a few rumbles into the night from the storms currently pushing through the north of England but they should generally weaken and depart as the evening goes on.
As the surface heating kicks in, modest but in places strong bouyancy looks possible in the UK. Combine that lift with 600 J/KG of energy and we've got a slight risk day with scattered showers and weak thunderstorms possible in the UK.
Generally forcing is low (ish) relative to how much of it can be ingested by the storms and CAPE is too low to worry about the shear and hoe long the storms in the UK will last. Generally they'll be pulse-storms with a few longer-lived ones.
Turning attention to Ireland where CAPE in excess of 1,500 J/KG at the surface means thst storms can latch onto that bouyancy, providing vigorous convection. In the morning shear should be running parallel to the passing cold front out east, though its on the western extent of the shearing and so as it gets towards initiation in the afternoon, the shearing weaks to virtually non existant. So mainly pulse-storms look to be the mode of convection. The CAPE may be enough to produce clusters in some areas though.
A shortwave trough in the area, provides just enough forcing support for a moderate risk to be placed in Ireland. So a tentative low-end moderate has been placed in Ireland due to fairly good confidence of storm formation within that area, with the AROME being especially strong there.
Strong moisture and PWAT with low to the ground LCL's along with ample entrainment CAPE has meant that we've gone for a small severe risk for possible flooding in Ireland. Perhaps some small hail is also possible but unlikely to reach severe status.
Ireland has had a fantastic summer already for storms, Wales too.
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Just now, CreweCold said:
Everything fizzling out into drizzly rain over this area. What a load of crap today has been, haven’t even heard one rumble of thunder.
Did you see the shelf cloud about 30 mins ago over Crewe? No thunder or rain with it though, very strange.
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5 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:
Just a bit of instability. Obviously going to look more extreme if you speed it up.
saw it too, definately a shelf cloud.
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2 minutes ago, Benny123 said:
The tail end of a rolling Arcus passing just outside Crewe about 20mins ago. Dying cell presumably, no precip or anything.. bizarre.
thats exactly what we saw........so strange.
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Brother and sister in law just sent me this from Alsager, bout 20 mins west of my location. They saw a shelf cloud and then this rotating and extremely low cloud but no rain or thunder with it. Back to just cloudy now. Odd.
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11 minutes ago, Azazel said:
Hampshire missed out on all of it
tbh Hampshire wasnt really in the warning area though...but I do hope you get a great storm soon, you are due a plume from the near continent
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11 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:
Hey man, I wasn’t accusing you of ‘toy throwing’ just to be clear… just giving another perspective! I hope you get a cracker of storm in the near future… sometimes I think the ‘magic’ of a storm happening has been diminished somewhat because of all the info we have at hand. That said the best lightning storm I’ve witnessed (2020? ) which happened around midnight, I did stay up for because of the radar! I may have missed most of it otherwise.
i don't think it was you, it was somebody from Leeds if I remember correctly, its fine though. I didnt mean for it to come across that way. Just frustrating when you cancel plans because of the forecast and it turns out to be a nice day.
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Just now, Snowshine said:
Rubbish day here. Pretty much missed all the action by a few miles.
yea Shropshire, Cheshire and Worcestershire missed out on most of it.
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little bit of light steady rain last 10 mins or so....enough to wet the ground, hardly any thunder apart from a few distant rumbles earlier and a pretty good day up here despite the warnings...i cancelled a family bbq because of the forecast when i probably didnt need to but its fine, one of those things. You just dont know with storms. Beautiful smell of petrichor and a lot fresher now with the light rain
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6 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:
Raining pretty steadily now, lots of surface water due to the dry hard ground.
Light rain here, enough to wet the ground. Beautiful smell of petrichor though and a lot fresher so I will take that
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2 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:
I do think people expect far too much with these warnings. I'm lucky enough here today with the two storms so far but it's not always like that, even in the higher risk area. The NW, including Azure's area has done fine recently, some parts even better than that. It's in the nature of thunderstorms to be unpredictable, wonderful and maddening in equal measure. It's one reason why they're so captivating!
we had a good storm last Sunday but that was the only one in 3 years...even though the NW has done well locally my town has not....i agree with your point though. Just annoying when I cancel plans because of forecasts and it turns out to be a lovely day.
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3 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:
To be fair to the forecast (and storms are nearly as hard to forecast as snow) I was in a 60% chance of a storm, poss severe today. I’m having a mild one atm with some thunder. Last Monday was the same forecast. Had severe rain/hail with flash floods, roads had bad problems in the aftermath, many houses were flooded - beforehand there was constant thunder for 30 mins. My daughter witnessed a house being struck by lightning and catching fire (everyone was safe). There are decent storms around (and yeah I guess I’d like those). I’ve seen a picture on this thread showing some pretty bad flooding in a garden, and it’s been mentioned elsewhere as well. So I reckon the ‘risk’ for a large area of England/wales was spot on personally, if I take my own disappointment for today out of the equation…
Current radar with lightning.
I understand that, but we had talk of supercells, MCS's and a significant event on pretty much every forecast. It was nowhere near that. Of course its hard and yes some people will have had some bad weather (or good depending on what you like) but its really not the event that was predicted. I had to cancel a BBQ today because of the forecast and it turned out fine up here apart from a 10 min light shower. I dont want to be accused of 'throwing my toys out the pram' as somebody else has said so I'll stop now lol
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1 minute ago, Rush2112 said:
A few low rumbles, no lightning, just a moderate rain shower as this passed over from Leek. No detailed structure to it.
pretty much the same here, moderate shower, one or two distant rumbles...not much else
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1 minute ago, cheese said:
Proper toys out of pram stuff from him
same old same old
What do you mean by that?
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1 minute ago, Norfolk Sheep said:
Even the stuff in the channel is losing the will to live....
yep. An incredibly disappointing day.
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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Yeah, I expected much much more from today.
Who knows when our next chance will come now with the Azores HP set to muscle across us as the week goes on.
an incredibly disappointing day. A few storms down the middle of the UK but none severe and certainly not as widespread as the forecasts suggested. There were talks of supercells and MCS's but none of that happened.
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Northwest Weather Discussion
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
seems to be a nice line of thundery showers heading north east across the Midlands stretching down to Bedfordshire and London....of course the storms miss us but thats the usual, but anybody in CE England might get a great light show in the next few hours